Sort of Theory Post

[BluffTHIS!]

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IF he folds to the flop raise (it's too tough to analyze if he ever calls a raise w/ a worse hand, suhc as 45 or A5) - going on the stipulation he calls w/ better folds worse (which I dont agree, but then again you people would all be surprised at what loose calls I can get when I go crazy) he must therefore be "bluffing" 60% of the time.

ON THIS BOARD, since there are basically no semibluffs, he is NOT bluffing 60% of the time!

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I think that the words above of Bobbo's that I put in bold are a key element in determining what is the best play against more aggressive players. If you can in fact get villain to fold a better hand, but not a monster, as in like AJ, then you really have accomplished something with a flop raise. Even if he does call with a marginally better hand, he has to fade big bets on the turn and river if he doesn't improve and wants to see the showdown, which is why he generally won't call if he is tighter as well as aggressive. And this all assumes that you don't always just go into check/calling mode with AK in position on this flop as the preflop raiser, so that he won't know you don't have that.

So I agree with cero that villain's flop lead here is weak, as in a bad A, lower pp than A, or a semi-bluff. And this means you should tend to raise an aggressive player here but not a passive one, including occasionally with air to balance your legit hands. Again with the point that if you can get a marginally better hand to fold you are more right to raise, then raising with 77 yourself in this spot and getting 99 or a weak A to fold has accomplished something very good. The only problem is that if he catches on to such plays when the stacks are deep enough, then you will see him calling your raise and leading out on the turn again more often including with really big and improved hands.

[BobboFitos]

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Hi Bobbo,

Basically, you disagree with my premise that a bet here is weak much more than it is strong. From there, we don't have many places we can go.

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true. But I'm pretty much hovering over the % it is a real hand (that wont be folded) vs a semibluff, marginal hand (which is folded) or outright bluff. this is tough to evaluate [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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You mentioned that there are few gutshots on the A83 board--2 things: I said in my post that the bet could be a gutshot, a pair, or an Ace. So 45, 89, 99, A7--these are all possibilities IMO. The 2nd thing is that it's a theory post, so I don't think Adam meant to inquire about your action on the dryest board of all time only; I could be wrong about that, but in any case I was thinking of a generic "dry flop".


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true

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As far as floating with any two goes, we're dealing with 2 arguments here: what to do with AT, and what to do with dikshit. Detailing my reasons for raising with dikshit would take longer than I want to spend, but basically, it would be to balance the legit raises (such as the AT/AK/top two etc) I'll be making.

Like Strassa, I love it when I know that if I lead a certain flop into a certain pre-flop raiser, he will not raise me NO MATTER WHAT HE HOLDS. He'll call with AT/ JJ to see what I do; he'll call with junk to take the pot away on the turn if I check; he'll call with AA to raise me on the turn. That makes a bet with a gutshot or bottom pair look fairly attractive, especially if you throw in that I can possibly read his bet size/action if I check the turn and still win the pot sometimes.

Anyway, I like where this thread has gone; nice posts Adam, Bobbo, et al.

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Hmm, I still wont budge on this point. It takes far too long for a metagame to develop - (so for strassa at 25/50, it makes sense, as he really knows his players - but 3/6 to 10/20, the player pool is so large most players will not learn of your exploitable strategies until you've already won alot of skalansky dough) so in isolation, which is the "right player often," floating w/ the junk is still better then openly raising the flop, even to disguise your hand strength (as in when you do raise AT)

I like where it's gone too [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[AdamBragar]

Bobby and Cero,

You've both made some really good points. One particular important aspect is that, as I think Cero pointed out, this type of situation isn't that common (although, I find it becoming more and more common). Obviously there are a wide range of hands that a player might do this with.

Poker is a game of gaining information. I still don't see much value in calling with A10, but I can see valid reasons for folding with air/hands like A10. However, when you make this play, you can't really guage what kind of a hand someone is doing this with. If you make the raise, you definitely can get a better idea. I guess that brings up the other question Bobby pointed out, how much will I see the same players at 5/10 or 10/20 games that gaining this information will matter?

This is a lot of thinking. My head hurts.

call flop, check behind turn, pot river...

[AdamBragar]

If someone bets the turn? Fold? If it goes check on the turn and the opponent pots the river? Call? Calling the flop works out conveniently if your opponent closes his eyes and prays the hand gets checked down. It works out less conveniently if the opponent is more agressive.