The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP

[TxDozerMan]

I certainly don't doubt this being a 99% chance of folding into a seat, and also a 99% chance that playing this hand can only decrease that number. Being able to quantify this at least to a good estimate would make the bubble much easier to play.

I think you are onto something, start with how many hands hero has left, then the chances of 2 big hands meeting. Would starting with total chips in play minus huge stacks(shouldn't be playing without monsters) and come up with avg stack when bubble bursts be helpful to this calculation?

I'm not looking for an exact formula per se, since I doubt one could be created. I am more curious at determining all the factors that should be considered while estimating this number.

[Boxman]

[ QUOTE ]
If Villain only had, say, 3000 left, exactly 1 BB, should Hero limp in as well and hope to check it down?

[/ QUOTE ]

If Villain had only 1BB and we only needed one player to bust to end the tournament; I think that the entire table should call, checking it down to the river no matter what the flop. This would increase the chance that someone would catch a hand to crack whatever the shorty was pushing.

It's only collusion if I say it out loud. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[seke2]

Right, but we're assuming everyone else won't play optimally.

How large does the short stack need to be before that turns from an easy call (at 1xBB) to a fold (at 4xBB)?

[Boxman]

I don't think whether the shorty's stack relative to the blinds is as important as it is relative to Hero's stack, Hero's position, and stacks yet to act.

Hero has 14 BB and can marginally afford to gamble. Right now, he can check/fold thru 7 complete orbits. If he loses this hand, that will reduce that to 5 orbits. This is what I would consider to be the critical decision point.

However, Let's say Hero is in late position with that same JJ. In Button, SB, or best yet -BB, if folded around to him, the odds that someone will wake up with a hand are reduced. Then making a play against the shorty becomes a little more tolerable.

[marchron]

[ QUOTE ]
Could an argument be made to raise to t12573 here after the limp, and fold to a reraise by a bigger stack? I whole heartedly agree that this is a laydown with JJ, but wouldnt this line cover your butt too?
~Justin

[/ QUOTE ]
Possibly. But you're in MP with JJ and the UTG shorty only calls. I might fold JJ because I think the odds are too good that he has AA/KK/QQ and is just desperate to double up.

Obviously, knowing he has 99 means we could theoretically have called, let the big stack call as well, and check it down to knock out the shorty. But in that situation, I'd be terrified to put a significant amount of my chips at risk against the shorty, to say nothing of whatever hand might be lurking behind me.

[seke2]

So JJ is still a fold if the shortie has, lets say, 6000 chips, and Hero thinks the rest of the table is smart enough to understand that it would be stupid to reraise preflop if shortie moves all in?

[Nez477]

[ QUOTE ]
So JJ is still a fold if the shortie has, lets say, 6000 chips, and Hero thinks the rest of the table is smart enough to understand that it would be stupid to reraise preflop if shortie moves all in?

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess if we KNEW that no one would reraise you, then ya it's probably a call. But you'd need to know 100% for sure that no one would be dumb enough to reraise you preflop, and that's a very silly assumption in online poker.

Brad

[The Bear]

I think playing AA here would be a massive mistake. I don't see how it's even close.

[shag]

seriously... the bottom line is hero is pretty much guarenteed a seat. Why risk ANYTHING? There are enough bad players that won't be playing optimally to insure someone will be knocked out before hero is in danger of being blinded off. Fold every single hand.

[NHFunkii]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm just trying to understand the fundamental principle here.

For a satallite to actually end, SOMEONE will have to make a call of a short stack's push at some point. I guess basically what you guys are saying that is that:
1) its too many chips to risk here relative to Hero's stack
2) JJ isn't strong enough to be worth the risk

If Villain only had, say, 3000 left, exactly 1 BB, should Hero limp in as well and hope to check it down?

I've been thinking about playing sats recently for an occasional shot at a big money tournament, but apparently I need to work on my sat bubble math first, and just want to understand this better.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes for the sat to end someone will have to kill the shortie. Someone will. Not everyone is going to sit out, and even if they did, you would not be the 30th out, no matter what (unless what I described in my post happened, which is impossible without HEAVY collusion and obviously is not going to be the case). There is absolutely no reason to put chips at risk here, period.

re: txdozerman - I wish I could quantify that as it would be a HUGE edge in satellites, but the best I can do is estimate. Various factors include average stack size, number of people remaining until bubble, your stack size, how the table has been playing (whether big stacks have been getting involved, whether shortish but not shortest stacks have been getting involved, with what, etc)