Kinsman1josh / Fobol on Party 10/20 Stud8

[BarbarianX]

I've kind of new to this forum, just recently started playing Stud, but I'm more experienced with stud/8 which I believe is one of my better games (not spread much though online, certainly not during European office hours).

Anyway, I've followed this discussion about this player and I believe it's interesting in more persperctives. I think everyone wonders from time to time about "incredible" luck or strange patterns. Maybe it's just a part of a huge pattern, where very unlikely things appear. Most things happens likely and it wouldn't be likely without those unlikely occurencies. Normal things we don't notice, but a 50 million dollar lottery winner is noticed, still it's very unlikely to see it happen from a close range. I won't bore you more with this, because I'm sure you're all aware of it. Just suggesting he's the ongoing lottery-winner of stud/8... Any comments?

[ColdCaller]

This guy is not the DERB of Stud 8/b. I smash his face regularly in that game, and am happy to sit with him. The end.

[BarbarianX]

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This guy is not the DERB of Stud 8/b. I smash his face regularly in that game, and am happy to sit with him. The end.

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Cold Caller is probably right, and the way he's chasing (like we saw an example of) he will hardly be such a huge winner in the long run. By the way, if the accusations of cheating would be serious, why not contact Party Poker? If I was cheating I would chose a diffrent game than stud/8, probably some Hold'em game where there would be a lesser chance to get noticed. I also believe Bogger about the only chance would be if he had discovered that the cards were not dealt completely randomly. Still, would Party Poker really made such a mistake when creating the software?

Isn't there a program like Poker Tracker for Stud, or some other way of checking the statistics on this guy, cause we don't really know what his average really is?

[frappeboy]

I am no expert at stud 8/b, but there is no way in hell someone can win 6 big bets an hour. I can tell you exactly what is happening, he is getting lucky day in and day out. Statistically speaking, if you get 10,000 poker players, you're bound to find a few who get insanely lucky over the course of a year or two.

I'm not saying he's a bad player, he probably plays quite well to be able to put himself in a position to get this lucky. But if his win rate is 6BB an hour it's not purely because of skill.

[fnord_too]

Maybe the games are just really incredible right now. When I have sat in the 10/20, there have been some real donators stopping by.

Also, perhaps he is a very strong heads up and short handed player. Those games ocilate between short and full the few time I have played. I definitely recall playing HU with someone decent (but whom I think I had an edge on HU as he made a few general HU mistakes) and every 5-15 minutes someone would stop by and drop a 10-20BB buy in on the table three way and leave. I really hope I can play in this game more and get some more data points.

FWIW, I think I have seen the mentioned guy and have about the same mental note on him as everyone else: Plays decently but occasionally flakes out and plays a hand he should not and goes to far with it.

I will watch him more in the future since everyone says he is on a huge upswing right now to figure out if there is some method to his madness. Honestly, I figured him for a small loser to decent winner depending on the table make up. He may in fact be a big winner who just makes these crazy weak loose plays for advertising. I have been meaning to write a big post on advertising in the psych section, but what it boils down to is that, from reading some very respected psych papers, I think it may be more effective than most people think. Specifically, there are two theories which lead me to believe this. The first is anchoring, after an oppinion is formed and contrary information comes in, the oppinin may shift, but almost always in too small of steps. The second is, IIRC, representativeness. If one can recall certain parts of a population better, they will tend to think the distribution of the population is skewed in the direction of the part they recall easier. For instance, you read off a list of 100 actors and actresses to someone, 50 of each. The actresses are somewhat more famous than the actors, so the person you are reading it to will know, and probably recall that they were on the list, better. If you ask the person for the proportion of actors and actresses, they will tend to estimate that there were more actresses on the list. In poker, it is easier to spot and remember bad play, so a couple of bad plays, especially early, and really affect oppinions.

[dibbs]

Good post fnord, and a topic I've been thinking alot about lately, though mainly in regards to perfecting the balance of advertising/metagame things, and also mainly in regards to the NL game of PF, but obviously applying to stud too as well as but notsomuch TD.

Would love reading the essay if it ever comes to be.

[Vike]

I played $10-$20 stud/8 with Kinsman1josh this weekend on Party. He caught me eye because of this thread. I have played with him a few times in the past but can't remember much about him. He bought in for $500, won 2 hands and was up to $650, then lost a few hands and was down to around $500 again, then rebought for around $300-$320 as he suddenly was at $820 without winning a hand.

Not taking away from his play which I think is very solid, but his win rate might not be as big as you believe if you just go by occasionally checking his stack size. His play is good though, I don't think he likes to play shorthanded, each time a few people sat out he would sit out and wait till there were 6-7 players again.

[fnord_too]

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I played $10-$20 stud/8 with Kinsman1josh this weekend on Party. He caught me eye because of this thread. I have played with him a few times in the past but can't remember much about him. He bought in for $500, won 2 hands and was up to $650, then lost a few hands and was down to around $500 again, then rebought for around $300-$320 as he suddenly was at $820 without winning a hand.


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Wow, that's like the guy from the Feeney essay in ITPM.

[ColdCaller]

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Maybe the games are just really incredible right now. When I have sat in the 10/20, there have been some real donators stopping by.

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This is definitely true. Stop outing the best game on Party! :P

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Also, perhaps he is a very strong heads up and short handed player. Those games ocilate between short and full the few time I have played. I definitely recall playing HU with someone decent (but whom I think I had an edge on HU as he made a few general HU mistakes) and every 5-15 minutes someone would stop by and drop a 10-20BB buy in on the table three way and leave. I really hope I can play in this game more and get some more data points.

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Kinsman is a very skilled HUSH player in Stud 8/b. However, he is godawful in 6-8 handed play, as he chases a ton of hands and has very poor starting requirements.

I'll let a secret out of the bag about Kinsman: He loves to get freerolled for low.

[BeerMoney]

Is this guy still crushing?