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#31
10-28-2007, 07:53 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
Bills217,
a big factor in ND/Navy is ND has had an extra week to prepare for the Navy rush attack. It's a dream schedule to have 2 weeks to prepare for Navy's scheme. 
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#32
10-28-2007, 08:03 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
Bills217, a big factor in ND/Navy is ND has had an extra week to prepare for the Navy rush attack. It's a dream schedule to have 2 weeks to prepare for Navy's scheme. [/ QUOTE ] Valid point. Don't get me wrong, Navy is pretty awful too, I only have a unit on them - I'm just saying it boggles my mind that public bettors presumably still favor ND in light of the unmitigated disaster they have been.
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#33
10-28-2007, 08:06 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
Navy gave up 8ypp to the Blue Hens! ND doesn't have to be LSU to move the ball on them, and they had the bye week.
Anyone who thinks Navy should be a pick should be unloading a huge part of their BR on Navy ML this game then. Full Kelly would be 20%, half 10% of BR [using common ML estimates]. That's a massive advantage you can't pass up if you evaluate Navy as Even here.
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#34
10-28-2007, 08:12 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
Navy gave up 8ypp to the Blue Hens! ND doesn't have to be LSU to move the ball on them, and they had the bye week. Anyone who thinks Navy should be a pick should be unloading a huge part of their BR on Navy ML this game then. Full Kelly would be 20%, half 10% of BR [using common ML estimates]. That's a massive advantage you can't pass up if you evaluate Navy as Even here. [/ QUOTE ] I would probably be doing that if I was really that confident in my projections - they are educated guesses at best, especially when it comes to teams like Navy and ND that I am not super-familiar with. Edit: Indeed Sagarin has Delaware above ND, and Navy ~3.5 points better than ND in the predictor.
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#35
10-28-2007, 08:17 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
If you 'discount' your projections by 75%, and use quarter-Kelly, you still get 5% of BR on Navy ML. Either you bet that or revise your projections, anything else is -EV.
You may be 100% right in your analysis, so don't throw money away. [I think ~3 is about right so I'll just avoid entirely.]
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#36
10-28-2007, 08:20 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
POTW: Rutgers +2.5 @ Uconn bet 2.2u to win 2u
waiting to either add another unit on Rutgers (hoping to get 3) or to bet the moneyline
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#37
10-28-2007, 08:23 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
POTW: Rutgers +2.5 @ Uconn bet 2.2u to win 2u waiting to either add another unit on Rutgers (hoping to get 3) or to bet the moneyline [/ QUOTE ] I'm hoping to get 3 after all the NYCers jump on UConn [huge win over former #2 USF] and they all saw Rutgers get shellacked by WVa.
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#39
10-28-2007, 08:54 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
Adding on Oklahoma State, now at 3.5. Edit: And I am all-in at +4. [/ QUOTE ] And now back at 3, whaddya know - thanks for the swing! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#40
10-28-2007, 08:57 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
Naj- Sagarin has Navy as 1 pt fav after HFA. You'd have to look hard to find a computer that would rank ND even with Navy. Predicting it as PK is not crazy. [/ QUOTE ] This thread is making me want to put my entire net worth on Navy to show Naj how ballsy I am. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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