100-200 Live: Thin River Value Bet?

[Marduk]

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the 10k and calling a shove idea is capitalizing on the same human instinct that involves having sex in an elevator with a girl you just met in the elevator or the one that drives you to take your umbrella and smack the back of a new york yellow cabbie that pisses the [censored] out of you.

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i read this like 5 times and i still have no idea what the hell it means

[jsnipes28]

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GoG,

I heard he challenged his opponent to a series of HU matches online. Do you know anything about that?

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gogogogogo

[Marnixvdb]

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Not so thin..this is a black and white protect your bluffs value bet. If you'd ever fire off 20k with QJs here then you need to bet the ace. You start checking back top pair in a spot like this and you'll have a tough time firing 2 or 3 barrels in the future against observant opponents. You are likely ahead, and you gain a ton of value if he doesn't call, too, for obvious reasons. Be interested to hear what he had(and who he was for that matter).

James

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Nice post. Could you explain what the obv value of him not calling would be, besides not having to show down your hand.

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becaus if villain sees you checky checky two pairy he thinks next time when you take this line and bet river that you have nutsy nutsy or bluffy bluffy cause you no betty two pairy

[JooWish622]

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the 10k and calling a shove idea is capitalizing on the same human instinct that involves having sex in an elevator with a girl you just met in the elevator or the one that drives you to take your umbrella and smack the back of a new york yellow cabbie that pisses the [censored] out of you.

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i read this like 5 times and i still have no idea what the hell it means

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its some sort of macho, "for the glory", idea of us being the awesomest. Its a flaw of ours that comes with being male. didnt you get the memo?

[creedofhubris]

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Not so thin..this is a black and white protect your bluffs value bet. If you'd ever fire off 20k with QJs here then you need to bet the ace. You start checking back top pair in a spot like this and you'll have a tough time firing 2 or 3 barrels in the future against observant opponents. You are likely ahead, and you gain a ton of value if he doesn't call, too, for obvious reasons. Be interested to hear what he had(and who he was for that matter).

James

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Nice post. Could you explain what the obv value of him not calling would be, besides not having to show down your hand.

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becaus if villain sees you checky checky two pairy he thinks next time when you take this line and bet river that you have nutsy nutsy or bluffy bluffy cause you no betty two pairy

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Hero doesn't have two pair, he has top pair bottom kicker

[Marnixvdb]

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Not so thin..this is a black and white protect your bluffs value bet. If you'd ever fire off 20k with QJs here then you need to bet the ace. You start checking back top pair in a spot like this and you'll have a tough time firing 2 or 3 barrels in the future against observant opponents. You are likely ahead, and you gain a ton of value if he doesn't call, too, for obvious reasons. Be interested to hear what he had(and who he was for that matter).

James

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Nice post. Could you explain what the obv value of him not calling would be, besides not having to show down your hand.

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becaus if villain sees you checky checky two pairy he thinks next time when you take this line and bet river that you have nutsy nutsy or bluffy bluffy cause you no betty two pairy

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Hero doesn't have two pair, he has top pair bottom kicker

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hm yeah i got confused by the JooWishes post and my post was drivel anyway

When i read OP i wasn't sure about the bet, when I read JooWishes summare (who said the board was K32QA) I was obv pretty sure about a bet.

As played in OP, pot is huge by the river and even though our flop/turn combo may look bluffy (which obv makes the float not so great), betting the ace does look kinda strong, even though there are a ton of draws that missed. If we'd bet it, i'd bet strongly though, exactly for the reasons James282 mentioned. We may get called by worse which will make up for our failed attempt to bluff on earlier streets and our future river bets will be much harder to read. I'd fold to a check/raise.

[xxThe_Lebowskixx]

id check the river.

[TheFuGu]

Why would you check the river? The ace looks like a perfect bluff card.

[Marnixvdb]

Thinking about this hand a bit more, the question whether you can bet this or not is almost completely dependent on how often GoG calls with worse, right?

So the issue is the level we are on, or state in which the metagame is. Or simply put: does he expect your ~potbet to be a bluff most of the time or not?

If we bet the river strong, it used to be common for players like GoG to think: 'he would check most one pair hands with showdown value, and bet his strongest hands and his bluffs... a lot of draws missed so he is often bluffing, i call with most pairs'. People have picked up on this line of thought and exploiting it by potting much wider ranges on these rivers, including their marginal one pair hands on. Good players, like villain and hero are, have also adapted to this line of thought, what changes the meaning of the action on the river yet again - and above all makes it more situation specific.

Will GoG call light, assuming you will be betting this river with all bluffs you couldve been running, rendering the river irrelevant? Or will he fold because bluffing the ace on the river has become too transparent to be a real option for you? Or will he consider check/raising as a bluff because he knows you are betting a wide part of your range, much of which he doesnt beat but you can't call a c/r with?

Obviously a check is the safe option, but it is also admitting that your opponent outplayed you (which in itself is no reason not to check: winning the pot is your consolation): he saw through your (semi)bluff by calling your turnbet while you didnt get additional value out of hitting your few outs.

[JooWish622]

sorry.. that's my b

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Not so thin..this is a black and white protect your bluffs value bet. If you'd ever fire off 20k with QJs here then you need to bet the ace. You start checking back top pair in a spot like this and you'll have a tough time firing 2 or 3 barrels in the future against observant opponents. You are likely ahead, and you gain a ton of value if he doesn't call, too, for obvious reasons. Be interested to hear what he had(and who he was for that matter).

James

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Nice post. Could you explain what the obv value of him not calling would be, besides not having to show down your hand.

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becaus if villain sees you checky checky two pairy he thinks next time when you take this line and bet river that you have nutsy nutsy or bluffy bluffy cause you no betty two pairy

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Hero doesn't have two pair, he has top pair bottom kicker

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hm yeah i got confused by the JooWishes post and my post was drivel anyway

When i read OP i wasn't sure about the bet, when I read JooWishes summare (who said the board was K32QA) I was obv pretty sure about a bet.

As played in OP, pot is huge by the river and even though our flop/turn combo may look bluffy (which obv makes the float not so great), betting the ace does look kinda strong, even though there are a ton of draws that missed. If we'd bet it, i'd bet strongly though, exactly for the reasons James282 mentioned. We may get called by worse which will make up for our failed attempt to bluff on earlier streets and our future river bets will be much harder to read. I'd fold to a check/raise.

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