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#31
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[ QUOTE ]
I still don't see why AK/KQ is such a popular answer since raising the turn makes no sense. [/ QUOTE ] Is there any other hand that takes this line? I mean i guess devin could have T9s/98s, but then i think he would raise this river. As for villian, i really think villian has a 9, but w/e, he's a donk and probably has some stupid king. |
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#32
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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Ok, let's spice this up a bit. What if I told you I think villain's c/c flop, donk turn line is always a weak hand? [/ QUOTE ] If it's always a weak hand, then you lost some value on the river with a call. But... If you "think" he's weak, but could be wrong, then re-opening the betting with a raise on the river won't be a good thing. Your AQ (now given your read of weak hand) or 88 is good against his 77. I still think he has K(weak) or 77 but the 99 on the board coupled with the Ace on the river made you err on the side of caution. I'll have JohnnyBeef come beat you up if it ends up being some dumb crap like K9 vs K9.... [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] couple things. there's no value in raising AX on the river, and devin never flatcalls river with a 9. |
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#33
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does someone want to say why it has to be a king in their opinion for devin? Would devin not take this line with any other hand? What does he think villain has?
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#34
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[ QUOTE ]
Ok, let's spice this up a bit. What if I told you I think villain's c/c flop, donk turn line is always a weak hand? [/ QUOTE ] Hero has QQ-TT, is worried about AK on the flop, but then decides on turn donk bet that villain has no K. Hero flat calls on turn because he knows he's good, and flat calls on river afraid that villain hit his A. |
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#35
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Devin has a KQ
Villain is obviously retarded, so he could have a K weak kicker (anything from KJ to K5) or he might have a poorly played wired pair (my guess is tens or something similar)..... |
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#36
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Devin: AQ
villain: KJ |
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#37
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I can't think of any hand Devin would value raise on the turn and not value raise on the river.
I think given the size of his turn raise it is rarely a bluff. I'm really confused. Villain can have any pair/set/trips/two pair or missed draw his line is stupid and makes no sense. |
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#38
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grunch:
devin kq villian jj |
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#39
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Ok, results.
First this is my thought process through the hand. Preflop: His call doesn't really tell me much because I just sat. If he is a tag I'd put him on a mid SC or pp. But, unknown he could have any number of hands, including any two broadways. Flop: This is a great flop to c-bet. No draws, a high card etc. I can get better hands to fold like small pairs, and oop with A high, I don't mind worse hands folding either. When he calls, I pretty much decide I'm done with the hand unless I can represent some kinda scare card later because he's not really calling with any draws here. Turn: Hmmm....he donks out at me. This very often means a weak hand. Like a middle pp or something. He's likely betting to see where he's at. Which, is why it's not a good reason to bet. So, I decide I'll tell him where he's at. I'm going to tell him he's behind. This is where my bet size is a little confusing, because it is small in relation to the size of the pot. This is something I've been playing with. Often times when you repop a small bet like this with a pot size raise, they'll comment on the fact that it is a 'large' raise. When, in reality it is not that large. They just seeing it as large because it is relatively large compared to the size of their donk underbet. So, that's why I went to 3.5x his raise. I figure it'll get the same reaction as a $40-$50 raise here. I'm looking to fold out his 88 or whatever weak hand he's holding here. Ok, so he calls. Strange. But, I still don't think he has much of a hand. River: Ok, an A. I'll let the cat out of the bag and tell you now I had AJ. So, now I'm pretty sure my hand just got there. But, then he donks again. This is strange. I really didn't think he's bluffing very much here. At this point, I'm thinking my AJ is not good. But.....this is one way we make money at poker. I'll pay the 6-1 odds he's offering me here cause surely I'm good here 1 out of 7 times. Also, later when I have the best hand I'll charge him like 2-1 and profit. So, what does villain flip? Well, it was a weak hand, but I was surprised to see JT. |
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#40
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My guesses when Devin im'ed me yesterday was AQ and missed gutshot, so I almost got it.
After the flop Devin and villain's ranges are both huge, so the flop is pretty much meow chow to me. On the turn, villain bets small on somewhat of a scare card. CC line on the flop is def consistent with a 9, and imo his turn lead is sometimes consistent with that. But he bet a really goofy amount and it seems like a feeler bet, maybe even a (bad) bluff or semibluff. After his turn lead, particularly for that amount, his range seems like air, KJ or some such, and 9x, in that order with air being way out in front imo. Which is why when Devin raises the turn, I really discount a lot of kings from his range... it's really only good if you can put villain specifically on Kx. But if he has air, he probably folds. And if he has 9x he either raises or calls. So against a lot of villain's range, you're letting him play perfectly. Plus I think Devin would need pretty much exactly AK if he's gonna raise the turn with a king. If you raise the turn for value with KQ, I think it's really super thin. Note that raising for value DOES NOT equal raising because you think you're ahead. If you're raising for value, it means you expect worse hands to call. So that's why raising with KQ is thin, raising with KJ is super thin, raising with KT is super duper thin, etc. After Devin's turn raise, I think his range is 9x or air. I don't know which because honestly I'd raise with either of them after villain donks $10 on the turn. Maybe he has AK here sometimes. Now once villain calls the raise, that's a little scary. His overall line now looks a lot like 9x or KJ or some such, although I still think air is a part of it... but what type of air bet/calls the turn? A draw. There are no flush draws but he could have JT or QJ for a gutshot. Here's something fun about unknowns. He's probably about to anounce his hand on the river. After donking the turn, then calling, If he bets small, this is VERY often a hand that he should have just check/folded on the flop or turn with. A gutshot or something dumb like 66. If he bets big, this is VERY often a monster such as a 9 or even a boat. If he checks, this is VERY often KJ or KQ. He bet small and so to me, his hand really just seems like something dumb. His overall line is ridiculous by the way, and I don't think you should take a line of "call preflop, check/call flop, bet/call turn, bet river" with Kx, 9x, or a gutshot in this hand. I think that's a horrible line for pretty much any hand. It's especially horrible because his bet sizes make no sense. Devin called the river. He'd raise with a 9 or with AK, so if you look back at my turn thoughts, he now has what was air on the turn. But since he called on the river it must not be air any more. So that's how you get your Ace/big. |
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