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#31
04-20-2007, 10:32 PM
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Re: 10/25 deep 4bet pot big draw
If my math is correct, and my rough assumptions, he needs to fold about 1/5th of the time in order to break even on a shove. That seems likely, so shove seems reasonable.
Otoh what DJ Sensei wrote makes sense to me, which is that there's a good chance he'll call you on the turn if you just call the flop and hit your draw on the turn. Since your getting such good odds to call, that's an attractive play as well. It looks to me like both plays would be +ev. Not sure which would be more so. I'm guessing calling. 
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#32
04-20-2007, 11:08 PM
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Re: 10/25 deep 4bet pot big draw
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] call [/ QUOTE ] why not reraise? [/ QUOTE ] way behind. [/ QUOTE ] You must've misread the OP. Against a set, Hero 2:1 dog. That's the absolute worst shape he can be in. It looks like this guy has a very good hand, but that could be 2 pair or better (or very rarely AA). Vs. a range of 2 pair, set, straight, Hero's like 40% to win. I shove the flop all day since I wouldn't be sure of what to do on a number of turn cards, and I'm looking for a spot to show this guy that I fight back.
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#33
04-20-2007, 11:58 PM
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Re: 10/25 deep 4bet pot big draw
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] call [/ QUOTE ] why not reraise? [/ QUOTE ] way behind. [/ QUOTE ] You must've misread the OP. Against a set, Hero 2:1 dog. That's the absolute worst shape he can be in. It looks like this guy has a very good hand, but that could be 2 pair or better (or very rarely AA). Vs. a range of 2 pair, set, straight, Hero's like 40% to win. I shove the flop all day since I wouldn't be sure of what to do on a number of turn cards, and I'm looking for a spot to show this guy that I fight back. [/ QUOTE ] I felt like I was going insane.
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#34
04-21-2007, 02:35 AM
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Re: 10/25 deep 4bet pot big draw
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] call [/ QUOTE ] why not reraise? [/ QUOTE ] way behind. [/ QUOTE ] You must've misread the OP. Against a set, Hero 2:1 dog. That's the absolute worst shape he can be in. It looks like this guy has a very good hand, but that could be 2 pair or better (or very rarely AA). Vs. a range of 2 pair, set, straight, Hero's like 40% to win. I shove the flop all day since I wouldn't be sure of what to do on a number of turn cards, and I'm looking for a spot to show this guy that I fight back. [/ QUOTE ] Given this action, when 6.5k goes in the middle you are a 60/40 dog. The best I think you can hope for is AK/AA. You have near zero fe imo...I prefer a peel...
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#35
04-21-2007, 03:56 AM
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Re: 10/25 deep 4bet pot big draw
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] call [/ QUOTE ] why not reraise? [/ QUOTE ] way behind. [/ QUOTE ] You must've misread the OP. Against a set, Hero 2:1 dog. That's the absolute worst shape he can be in. It looks like this guy has a very good hand, but that could be 2 pair or better (or very rarely AA). Vs. a range of 2 pair, set, straight, Hero's like 40% to win. I shove the flop all day since I wouldn't be sure of what to do on a number of turn cards, and I'm looking for a spot to show this guy that I fight back. [/ QUOTE ] Given this action, when 6.5k goes in the middle you are a 60/40 dog. The best I think you can hope for is AK/AA. You have near zero fe imo...I prefer a peel... [/ QUOTE ] I agree with that. However, SOME portion of the time, he does fold here. 60/40 is how it's gonna end up very often, but with the small amount of FE you're not going to be worse than 50/50 here overall. There's probably some merit to calling and playing on, or maybe even reraising in case he's crazier than we think tonight and wants to do something very stupid. I'm not saying calling and c/f'ing if we miss or reraising with the intention of getting it in are terrible options, but shoving cannot possibly be terrible. HS players in this thread are saying things like, "You're gonna be 25% if all the money goes in." WTF? How? Like I said, I shove because of metagame, and the fact that I can possibly avoid making a big mistake (folding the turn when he's much weaker than what he's repping) that I am somewhat likely to make vs. this player.
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#36
04-21-2007, 04:14 AM
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Re: 10/25 deep 4bet pot big draw
This may sound like a stupid question(s):
If we do shove, how easy of a call is it for him with KJ? With 99 for that matter? If shoving is not an option for some people, shania will dislike you. I'm obviously saying the history isn't there, but still... As played, I usually HATE b3b'ing over the top of a minraise, since he's giving me such good odds to just peel and make the nuts and profit. However, Jebus it gets weird OOP in this kind of a pot... I really don't know.
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#37
04-21-2007, 02:16 PM
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Re: 10/25 deep 4bet pot big draw
Instacall KJ, insta call any set, fold out any 1 pair hands. If im minraising the flop for value, theres not a chance im folding to a push with 2 pair/set
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#38
04-21-2007, 03:06 PM
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Re: 10/25 deep 4bet pot big draw
If you instacall KJ here you either think Sub is really bad, or you are really bad.
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#40
04-21-2007, 05:18 PM
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Re: 10/25 deep 4bet pot big draw
[ QUOTE ]
If you instacall KJ here you either think Sub is really bad, or you are really bad. [/ QUOTE ] I think ur really bad either way for calling a 4 bet there with KJ...
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