650 wsop sat qq with 44 left

[bugstud]

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You made the correct play in my opinion so there's no point in regretting your decision.

Playing super tight is generally not the best way to get far in tournaments... see the anthology. If you aren't comfortable post flop then it is the best option though.

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it's a sat, not just a tourney.

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So what? The beginning plays the same as a regular MTT and he said about the beginning: "What got me this far in the tourney was playing very tight solid poker. There's no reason to make plays you would in a regular mtt and raise in late posiiton with say a KJ or JQ to try to take the blinds since they go up so slow. "

I would disagree in that it's often correct to be stealing the blinds a lot in qualifiers

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my problem with it is we're late in the tourney and he's in very good shape to get a seat w/o this hand, 23/44 with 35 seats? just fold pf already.

[wpr101]

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You made the correct play in my opinion so there's no point in regretting your decision.

Playing super tight is generally not the best way to get far in tournaments... see the anthology. If you aren't comfortable post flop then it is the best option though.

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it's a sat, not just a tourney.

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So what? The beginning plays the same as a regular MTT and he said about the beginning: "What got me this far in the tourney was playing very tight solid poker. There's no reason to make plays you would in a regular mtt and raise in late posiiton with say a KJ or JQ to try to take the blinds since they go up so slow. "

I would disagree in that it's often correct to be stealing the blinds a lot in qualifiers

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my problem with it is we're late in the tourney and he's in very good shape to get a seat w/o this hand, 23/44 with 35 seats? just fold pf already.

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It's very close to folding into the money but I'm not comfortable at this point so I'm still raising here... maybe open pushing.

I was replying to his comments about how he played earlier in the tourney to get to this point. At this point is obviously makes sense for the medium size stacks to be playing real tight.

[Bakes]

fold preflop or jam. if you standard raise espec this late in a sat people are going to put you on a big pair and therefore jam with a very tight range. the problem is that once it comes around to you espec against a shortie you are gonna be talking yourself into a call a lot of the time.

[IcarusJam]

call.

[greg nice]

i probably fold the flop if i got there like this

[LuckyLloyd]

I think that as played the call was fine because he knows how hesitant you will be to call here without AA or a flopped set - and will push with a lot of hands you beat as a result.

It has been said above - I like an open Jam. I don't really have a fold button with QQ pre - flop unless I have definately reached the "can win ticket without playing another hand bracket". You are not there at the start of this hand. Unlucky all the same.

[Thegunshow]

Definitely unlucky and I agree with the PF jam. The only things you are afraid of are AA and KK and those 2 hands likely get all your chips postflop anyway with this board. 22nd in chips with 44 left for 35 seats, the open push likely picks up the pot and buys you a round worth of chips. Any free round at this point greatly increases your chances of that seat.

[Solitare]

I really can't believe what I'm reading here. Very few posts seem to be addressing this situation from a satallite perspective.

There are some key questions that need to be addressed. Before the flop, what percentage of the time can the hero fold into a seat? After the flop, what percentage of the time can the hero fold into a seat? Both questions are very dependent on the stack sizes of the people currently below the bubble and a little bit above. Does the hero have a significant chip gap advantage over the group near and below the bubble? Are the blinds going up soon? Are people dropping like flies or are people tightening up and no one has gone out in a while? Are big stacks acting reckless?

Without this information, it is tough to make a completely accurate judgement here. OMG I've got an over pair to the board so I should call is not sufficient analysis.

That being said, and with insufficient information . . .

Before the flop the hero is 13 spaces above the bubble with 9 people below the bubble. He has 18BBs. I put him at a VERY high percentage of being able to fold into a seat here. Possibly 80-90%. He has no business playing QQ in EP, particularly when both blinds have him significantly outstacked. AA may not be good enough.

I do agree with other here that if hero insists on playing QQ here that the only play is to push.

I would also fold QQ after the flop. I'd like to know more about how throwing away 4800 affected his chip position in the tournament and his chances of folding into a seat.

But I do know that there is someone who DEFINATELY has a 100% chance to fold into a seat is willing to put 1/2 his stack at risk on this flop. I really doubt he is doing that unless he is crushing QQ.

He could be an idiot. He also could be a smart player who knows that the hero should be folding just about anything here and is making some sort of play (although he's not that smart if he's putting his 100% seat position at risk).

But what are the total of those chances? Is is greater than hero's ability to fold here and fold into a seat? Also taking into account that hero could call with QQ and still lose the hand. If the villian is bluffing AK, hero will still lose 25% of the time.

I think hero chances of folding into the money are much greater than betting that the villian is pushing trash. Instafold to the all-in after the flop.

But even those two fold recommendations could be wrong depending on the particular situation in this tournament. For instance, if hero's stack did not give him a signiciation advantage over the bubble stack. Or if people are not getting knocked out fast.

In the end we really don't have enough information to make a completely accurate judgment of this situation.

[BigSlick75093]

Your goal is to win a seat in the WSOP. You're in the pot with someone who is 8th in chips. You can really hurt him, yet he pushes all in. Would he do that with A-10 if he put you on AK? Else he must have a set. If he was a short stack, then I'd call. But in this case, I'm going to pick another battle.

[kindling]

Is there any standard way to quantify your chance to win a seat? In an earlier thread, I had asked about ICM and the HOH example, but no one seemed to think that they did a good job with the specifics of this kind of question.

Is it just a judgment call, or is there some objective way to predict your chance to win a seat based on some of the parameters that Solitare listed?

One that I've been paying attention to is the Average stack when the bubble bursts. If I am significantly above that (and we're near the bubble), I expect that I can fold into a seat. If I'm below this value, even if I'm otherwise healthy, I'm still wanting to accumulate chips, and I know I need to play poker.