I fold in big pot for 1 last bet

[yellowjack]

Some people are considering a one pair hand being played this way. I agree that a player might raise with a pair of queens "vs our AJ", but only a few. My estimate is that only 5% of players (given we bet all the way, OP's observations of opponent in the past half hour, PT/PA stats) would do this with just a pair of queens.

However, the other 95% of players are incapable of doing this.

Versus 95% of players, we have no equity:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

47 games 0.015 secs 3,133 games/sec

Board: Jc 5h 3d 9s Qc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 00.0000 % 00.00% 00.00% { AdAs }
Hand 2: 100.0000 % 100.00% 00.00% { 99, 55, 33, KTs, QJs, Q9s, Q5s, Q3s, KTo, QJo, Q9o }

---

Versus 5% of players we have a lot of equity.
I added AQ, KQ, & QT. I hated adding QT, but I did it anyways.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

77 games 0.005 secs 15,400 games/sec

Board: Jc 5h 3d 9s Qc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 38.9610 % 38.96% 00.00% { AdAs }
Hand 2: 61.0390 % 61.04% 00.00% { 99, 55, 33, AQs, KQs, KTs, Q9s+, Q5s, Q3s, AQo, KQo, KTo, Q9o+ }


---

0.95(0) + 0.05(38.9) = 1.95% equity

In this calculation it's a losing call (kidcolin was getting 13.7 to 1, so he needed 6.8%).

There are two things in my example while are debatable. One is the hand ranges I've assigned. The more important issue is the % of opponents that would play a hand that beats us the same way as a hand that we beat (AQ,KQ,QT).

If you agree with my hand ranges, then we need >20% of opponents to play it this way. I find that to be a gross overestimate.

I don't pay as much attention at the tables as OP claims to, so I would never make this fold. Also, I'm very willing to make a losing call if it means a showdown and I'm not losing that much overall. OP has the other take on this, where he will make the fold if he will save a fraction of a bet (EV-wise) and not have the curiosity kill him.

[DCWildcat]

I'm not folding without lots and lots of hands on him. There's way more than enough players that instinctively raise overcards (AQ, KQ?) that make this a routine call.

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a fine fold. This board is way to scary for him to raise naked Q on and risk getting 3 bet by a better hand. Your AA is likely beat and I think you made the right call by folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's 3 cards separated by 1 gap each. That's not a scary board by any definition. Even if it was scary, 80% of villains are too stupid to realize it, and maybe 1% would view this one as scary. I think most are value raising the top pair they have.