Poker - Luck vs. Skill from a different angle

[indianaV8]

I believe the examples you give are different by nature. If two guys bet against each other without rake involved, the expectation is that you break even, so if the sums are irrelevant to their bankrole (and even if they are) - it's even money, at least it's not EV-, so you don't really care.

And you get some TV time -> You become famous pro -> you get sponsoured to play, write books etc.

Golf, etc is also like irrelevant money I believe.

And losing everything on craps - that's called compulsive gambling ;-)

I mean if you want to persuade your mother or friends that poker is skills, take you hands history (hopefully with big #hands and +BB/100h) and show them some math - 2 sigma from the normal distribution; 97% statistical confience whatever (read chapter 1 of Mathematics of Poker) + give them few examples of guys that dropped MIT to play poker and do this for a living and they'll get it, that works at least for me very well ;-)

[El_Hombre_Grande]

[ QUOTE ]

Do not try and tell me poker is not 100% luck. The only skill in poker is trying to manage this luck and try to find the favorable spots. But rarely are you going to find a situation where your all in and better than 70% to win.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is no such thing as a "professional" in a 100% luck game; nor is there a winrate. Nor would it make any sense to study a game of 100% chance, and strategize. There is no 2+2 forum for coinflipping. I can't claim to know the particular proclivities of each individual pro as intimately as you do, but in a general sense because I know that poker is a game of skill, I know that those players that consistently win over long periods of time are doing so due to a mastery of a skill set. It doesn't matter that they tilt from time to time or make bad calls. What matters is that over the long run they are quite profitable despite their mistakes.

[Shandrax]

The amount of luck in Poker is very high and the amount of skill is very low, although certain people want to make you believe the opposite is true.

Take Omaha for example. No hand is more than a 3:2 favorite over another hand. This means even if you tried to lose on purpose by pushing all-in with complete trash, in 2 out of 5 cases you would fail to do so and win by accident. That's why Omaha is usually played with a pot-limit structure [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

So much about luck vs. skill....

Now the other stories about guys like TJ losing at craps or Ivey playing blackjack is totally unrelated. It just shows that compulsive gamblers can be good at poker too.

[stephenNUTS]

I would venture to say that Daniel N. (being ONE of the best NLHE TOURNAMENT players in the world),and a virtual nobody in CASH High Stakes Poker,has NO-WHERE near the 10MM dollar B/R,implied.His endorsemnets may boost him abit,but there are MAJOR droughts/downsides/traveling costs/etc. that go along with tourney poker that Daniel just might be "trying" to equalize in other arena's??

Have you seen his losses on HSP this/last season to the CASH vets??

Have you heard about his GOLF ability/handicap( and I mean handicap literally)amounting to HUGE losses??

Anybody with that much tourney talent flipping coins,prop betting ,playing a game(golf) for stakes he has NO right playing for,etc,.................there is something wrong there.These "opponents" are trying to beat you at something else,where they CANT beat you at YOUR game!!!

In one of his recent D.N blog's,he started preaching about GOD and POKER in his life............well that says ONE thing for sure...........LOSSES!!!!

Daniel,

If you EVER read this,DONT be a 'jack of all trades,master of none"

You are a PHENOM on the tournament poker circuit.............stick with what got you here.This is coming from an experienced Wall Street trader/hedge fund owner,and is meant as a compliment.Dont fray into uncharted shark infested waters(e.g GOLF)or situations where the outcome(PROP's) are -EV (or maybe EVEN)and out of your incredible poker related tournament talent.

~stephen

[lastcardcharlie]

Yes, why on earth would anybody spend hours strenuously trying to avoid doing anything -EV then get up, walk across the room and do something they know to be -EV?

Maybe they'll know in the psychology forum.

[damedley]

OP: this correlation between playing poker well and other forms of gambling (often with the worst of it) does not speak to the amount of skill in poker. Unfortunately, it speaks to something much more insidious. Namely, gambling is an addictive drug. As an avid seeker of the best of it I constantly monitor and even worry about this fact. Unfortunately, most players do not. They instead look at losing money on a craps table as a "leak" (i.e., something that costs them money) rather than a sign that they may have or be developing a serious gambling problem.

Very scary stuff. Your family is better off thinking that all gambling is just a game of chance than realizing the truth.