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#31
03-12-2007, 10:20 AM
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Re: Top 12 Analysis
I don't think Sligh makes it that far. His singing is ok, but he doesn't connect with the audience well and I don't think he has added to his fan base since the auditions (for which he did a lot of preparation and strategizing).
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#32
03-12-2007, 01:40 PM
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Re: Top 12 Analysis
StellarWind - some nice input, thanks for it.
[ QUOTE ] Agreed. My views on this have changed somewhat after reading the post about the actual vote ranking. However, despite the sympathy voting for Haley, she still garnered less votes than Phil (if that list is correct). Brandon was also very close to Phil, and all he needs is one of his "typical" performances, and he could be gone. [/ QUOTE ] Now having seen the "actual votes" - I feel pretty comfortable with my line of B3 = Haley / Phil / Brandon, with Phil gone. Phil doesn't have it in him to give the above-average performance to keep him around. I would say another problem facing Brandon is voter overlap, because my guess is he shares potential voting base with Melinda / Lakisha / Stephanie. I don't have money on Stephanie (and see her being gone soon also, for reasons cited by Thing and Stellar), but I hope it is not this week, I like her. -Al
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#33
03-12-2007, 01:53 PM
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Re: Top 12 Analysis
[ QUOTE ]
I would say another problem facing Brandon is voter overlap, because my guess is he shares potential voting base with Melinda / Lakisha / Stephanie. [/ QUOTE ] good point on brandon perhaps really being harmed by bringing men and women together.... might pick up some jared voters, but not sure how many there were....
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#34
03-12-2007, 02:10 PM
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Re: Top 12 Analysis
I agree on Brandon suffering at the hands of Melinda.
But I don think Phil has some good performances in him. In fact he did pretty well (for a guy) the first two weeks. Whoever goes home, I hope it's a shocker.
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#35
03-12-2007, 02:54 PM
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Re: Top 12 Analysis
[ QUOTE ]
Whoever goes home, I hope it's a shocker. [/ QUOTE ] when people look at last year and betting success, they usually talk about riding taylor/elliott up and daughtry down (ace too).. and then maybe daughtry's "surprise" elimination, although i think DI had him going... but one way there were good picks last year was eliminations seemingly coming out of nowhere.... llabb's call on mandisa at 30-1 (???) was excellent... might be early for that as seems like one of phil, hayley and brandon are very likely to go this week... once one or two of them are gone (and i sense brandon's had some momentum), then i'd say you can look for the 30-1 elimination (thinking sligh)... anyone else you like for surprise elimination? i'm thinking stephanie too. i can barely remember her during the downtime. trying to remember who mandisa went home "instead" of, bucky????
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#37
03-12-2007, 03:23 PM
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Re: Top 12 Analysis
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] trying to remember who mandisa went home "instead" of, bucky???? [/ QUOTE ] you may be right on this. [/ QUOTE ] i checked dialidol.... and no real pattern... probably have to see the odds from last year.... i think it was bucky.
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#38
03-12-2007, 03:24 PM
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Re: Top 12 Analysis
[/ QUOTE ]trying to remember who mandisa went home "instead" of, bucky???? [/ QUOTE ] Well Bucky outlasted her, but he wasn't in the bottom three that week (it was country week and he did pretty well plus had the pimp spot). I know that it was Mandisa and Elliott in the bottom two.
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#39
03-12-2007, 03:29 PM
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Re: Top 12 Analysis
[ QUOTE ]
[/ QUOTE ]trying to remember who mandisa went home "instead" of, bucky???? [/ QUOTE ] Well Bucky outlasted her, but he wasn't in the bottom three that week (it was country week and he did pretty well plus had the pimp spot). I know that it was Mandisa and Elliott in the bottom two. [/ QUOTE ] i was thinking the odds though.... and i think the 30-1 odds were pre-show. thanks for the HU on elliott in bottom 2
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#40
03-12-2007, 03:51 PM
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Re: Top 12 Analysis
the week mandisa went home. Based completely on my memory
bucky +150 ace +300 yamin +230 paris +900 mandisa +2400 this was after dial had mandisa at the bottom. I remember this week pretty well I didnt think mandisa would go home but there was so much value at WSEX and I was able to put a huge chunk of my WSEX bankroll on mandisa because I could arb my bet at tradesports, where everyone in the chat was mentioning mandisa being at the bottom of dial idol. Hated those people but it helped me that week. Dont expect this value again, because people understand dial a lot better now.
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