Online Poker In Asia: What's It's Status?

[_And1_]

what about india????

they have a growing sized group of ppl with decent incomes...

we all know they suck at poker support, how could they ever be any good on the actual game???

[Ondas]

read this article from sporting life:web page

[olivert]

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http://www.china-embassy.org/eng/xw/t180602.htm
http://news.777.com/2007-01/china-bu...gambling-cases

They are deadly serious about shutting down any site that isn't owned by the government.

They are however, investigating the potential of licensing operators in Macao (which basically give most of their profits to the Chinese government) to allow online gambling in China.

See here: http://news.com.com/2061-12572_3-6115701.html

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I spoke with the News.com reporter at the ThinkEquity Growth Conference in San Francisco before he interviewed the executives of GigaMedia and PacificNet for the article.

Getting a LEGAL license to operate online gaming anywhere within "Greater China" (mainland China, Macau, Hong Kong, Taiwan) will NOT be a straight-forward process.

1. Online gaming already exists in Macau, with Stanley Ho's SJM operating internet betting websites for Macau residents to bet on horse racing and greyhound racing taking place at SJM's race tracks in Macau.

However, it is unlikely in my opinion for any of the 6 gaming licensees or sublicensees in Macau will get an online gaming license from Macau that will allow any of them to operate anywhere else besides Macau.

2. In Hong Kong, the law of the land is very simple: with the exception of neighborhood Mahjong "schools", the Hong Kong Jockey Club (HKJC) has a TOTAL MONOPOLY on legalized betting. Any person who is physically in Hong Kong who is caught making a bet with any entity other than the HKJC is subject to criminal penalties. Because the HKJC contributes way too much in tax revenue to the Hong Kong government, there is no way the Hong Kong legislature will want to break the HKJC monopoly in the forseeable future.

The likes of PartyGaming, which does want the Hong Kong market, has no choice but to negotiate with the HKJC for a "partnership". Obviously, the likes of Playtech and Cryptologic are also pitching their software to the HKJC. As far as I know, neither PokerStars nor FullTilt have approached the HKJC at this time.

In other words, the HKJC holds ALL the "aces" when it comes to ever allowing online Texas Hold'em to be available legally in Hong Kong.

3. The law of the land in Taiwan is also very simple: the Ministry of Finance (MoF) has a TOTAL MONOPOLY on all forms of legalized gaming with the exception of horse racing. The MoF, which licenses ONE and ONLY ONE bank to run the Taiwan National "Welfare" Lottery (to raise money to run various charities), recently awarded a new 5-year contract to ChinaTrust Financial.

Again, the MoF in Taiwan holds ALL the "ace" cards when it comes to offering legal online Texas Hold'em in Taiwan. Any outfit (PartyGaming, GigaMedia/EverestPoker, Cryptologic, Playtech, etc.) who wants to offer its online Texas Hold'em software to a monopoly gaming licensee (i.e. whichever bank that holds the national lottery license) in Taiwan will have to negotiate with the MoF.

4. Mainland China is similar to Taiwan with its own Ministry of Finance (MoF), which has a national "welfare" lottery agency supervising various regional "welfare" lottery commissions. (The national lottery agency also runs the Beijing regional lottery.)

Mainland China does have one thing that Taiwan does NOT have, the "Great Firewall of China", which is managed by the Ministry of Information Industry (MoII)

The MoII can and will block any offshore online gaming outfit that attempts to do any kind of marketing in Mainland China.

888.com was one of the offshore sites that was recently blocked by the MoII after 888.com signed 19-year-old Chinese snooker sensation Ding Junhui (who lives and competes in the United Kingdom) to a sponsorship contract.

PartyGaming had to voluntarily block all IP addresses originating from China while it negotiates with the MoF and various regional lottery systems for partnerships.

As far as I know, neither PokerStars nor FullTilt have begun negotiations with the MoF in China, though both outfits obviously would like to be able to do business in China sometime in the future.

--

"Greater China" is obviously the "next frontier", and some would say the "last frontier" for Texas Hold'em. How everything will play out in the next 3 to 5 years is still anyone's guess at this point. One thing is for certain: there will be a big buy-in televised Texas Hold'em tournament in Macau sometime within the next 24 months simply because there is too much TV money for various promoters (i.e. WSOP and WPT) NOT to do something in Macau, which has already surpassed Las Vegas as the #1 gambling market in the world in terms of gaming revenue.

(The WPT in particular can't wait for the MGM Grand Macau to open by the end of 2007 or early 2008.)

--

I would also expect Vietnam, a much smaller market compared to China, to play itself out within the next 3 to 5 years. (Vietnam also has a Ministry of Finance running its own national welfare lottery agency.) The Vietnamese poker contingent in the U.S. is obviously drooling at the prospect of being able to land in Vietnam as "rock stars" and be able to endorse products in their own homeland.

[Kuso]

wow... some of the ridiculous comments in this thread show me how far we have to go to bridge the gap between the US and east asia.

*sigh*

the following comments are made by an american living in japan who has also lived in china.


first, the good points. degen's post and olivert's post have good info. i can't find any errors in them (although there may be some).

ok, for the rest i'm just going to quote and respond:


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I doubt Japan would bring much into the mix, as Japan, by and large, is not a nation of card players.

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this is a semi-truth. while there are relatively few "card" players in japan, there are many mah jong players. mah jong has many charateristics similar to western card games that can "feed" into poker. a great mah jong player would be very likely to become a great poker player.


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Start an Online poker site for asians and watch the money pour in. Everyone knows asians like to gamble, its only a matter of time

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i largely agree with this... assuming foreigners can play, too.


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1. The typical Japanese person doesn't have enough spare time to sit at home playing online poker. They only go home to sleep, if that. Most Japanese do their gambling in Pachinko parlours located on the street near their office.

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this is comically incorrect. some japanese have very little spare time -- especially the salarymen. young people, however, are taking a very different line in life and are largely shunning the salaryman lifestyle. "freeters" (free timers) are young people, sometimes very smart ones, who are working some trivial job and living super cheaply so that they can enjoy a massive amount of free time. a lot of these people play video games, are manga/anime fans, or are internet junkies. a large part of the freeter population could be potential poker players. of course, students have a TON of free time, and could also player during many of their classes. housewives are also possible (i.e., they often have free time), but are less likely candidates.

there are a lot of gamblers who play pachinko, and i think some of these people would LOVE nlhe. pachinko players are like slots players, so you figure out how many might take up poker.


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Additionally, Internet Cafes in Japan are extremely expensive by any standard, and especially by asian standards.

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this is somewhat true, but there are some caveats. first, there are "packages" that make internet cafes affordable (e.g., 8 hours for a set fee). second, getting a blistering fast internet connection in japan is very cheap. i have a fiber optic connection to my house for something like $60 a month (maybe cheaper... i haven't looked lately).


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Casinos in Macao don't spread poker.

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starting in 2007.


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So that leaves Hong Kong and South Korea that have cheap, reliable internet connections and no gambling bans.

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south korea has a lot of potential in this department. the two years of mandatory military service give young men a lot of free time. a lot of them play games (e.g., starcraft or baduk) -- poker is a natural extension of this, imo.


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China would probably allow online gambling ONLY on sites that were wholly owned and run by the Chinese government.

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this is a good observation and my biggest fear. i have fantasies about playing on svenska spel -- i hope china will be different.

to hedge a bit here, i really do think china will open up quite a bit over the next 10-15 years (including intenret access), but i realize that the face of poker will be completely different then.


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If poker ever became widely popular in Japan I would say that the ratio of fish/sharks would just fall. A higher percentage there would be serious players.

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i think it's true that there would be many "serious" players who are avid students of the game, but i don't think that many would become sharks. as a case in point, there are TONS of books on playing good mah jong, but SO many japanese are REALLY bad at it.

the japanese "fish" will come in two forms. the first is "the gambler". this will be someone with money who just wants to gamble, and will end up getting fleeced. interestingly, i think these are most likely to appear in high stakes games rather than lower stakes, but there will be some for all. check out the tony g link below. anyway, these are the "typical" fish you know and love.

the second group will be rocks. japanese LOVE systems, and they will be able to play a system really well. the problem is that most japanese largely lack creativity and an ability to adapt. as such, skilled players will be able to either read the japanese players like a book (i.e., the japanese play predictably tight ABC poker) or vary their game enough to thoroughly confuse the japanese player (e.g., something as simple as playing semi-loose one orbit and tight the next would completely confound most japanese players. i think most japanese would REALLY struggle against LAGs in nlhe. fr lhe games could become rockfests if filled with japanese, but if you can force the game to be sh or hu, then i doubt most will have the ability to adapt.

don't get me wrong... there will be some OUTSTANDING japanese players, but they will be the exception rather than the rule.


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Seriously, if a large amount of Japanese people got serious about poker, we'd all be screwed. Have you ever played a video game you thought you were the best at with a Japanese kid? It makes me sad just to think about.

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see above. video games are largely mechanical and rely on dexterity and game knowledge. japanese will be great at mechanical games -- fr lhe and fr lo8 could get super-nitty, but mechanical systems have limited utility in sh games and big bet games.


general comments:

- many asians are avid video gamers, and a fair number of video gamers make the transition to poker when they realize that they can make money off of their hobby.

- as stated above, mechanical games will likely become rock gardens.

- i'd worry about the koreans... they can be aggressive. i think you'll ultimately get a lot of slags and lags out of korea in addition to some system-junky rocks. you have to figure out whether these aggressors are good for your game or not.

- to me, china is the random element. poker, both live and online, will be impacted profoundly by whatever policies the chinese government decide to create and (possibly) enforce.

- iirc, i read somewhere that the average table stakes somewhere in east asia were 4x the average of lv table stakes. honestly, i think the biggest games are going to end up in asia.


three links that have some comments from tony g on poker in asia:

http://tonyg.pokerworks.com/2006/08/...n-japan-2.html

http://tonyg.pokerworks.com/2006/11/...oker-tour.html

http://tonyg.pokerworks.com/2006/11/amazing-asia.html

[PokerSpiv]

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this is comically incorrect. some japanese have very little spare time -- especially the salarymen.

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Who are the majority of Japanese. At the very least, the majority who have cash with which to gamble. Just because you are young and hang around with a lot of young people doesn't mean that they are the majority of the population.

Japan has the lowest birth rate in the world and the most senior-skewed population in the world. Most Japanese are salarymen, not young hipsters.

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of course, students have a TON of free time, and could also player during many of their classes.

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Students in America have a ton of free time during the day in America too, but poker servers are always full after work and until midnight.

Possibly wildly crazy theory: Most people who play poker are losing players. If you don't have a job, you can't afford to play poker a lot. Therefore, most LOSING poker players are people who work full-time and gamble in their spare time. Somehow I don't think an influx of students playing poker to supplement their income is going to help us much.

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housewives are also possible (i.e., they often have free time), but are less likely candidates.

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This is just a joke. For every Evelyn Ng there are 2000 dudes. Poker (especially online) just doesn't appeal to women.

I have lived and worked (as a professional online poker player in fact) in 5 different countries in Asia over the last two years. So before you go around calling my comments "ridiculous" try entertaining the idea that you aren't an omnipotent being.

[Backspin20]

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Start an Online poker site for asians and watch the money pour in. Everyone knows asians like to gamble, its only a matter of time

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Aint that the truth ruth
I remember being 21 at ceasers and watching asians come in the sealed bank envolops and put then on the table... it was their paycecks because the dealeer would always give them back the change... Pia Gow poker was the game!

[T50_Omaha8]

Good post Kuso. How do you know poker will be spread in Macau in 2007, or is that just inferring from the WPT event? Also will poker be at the new MGM/Grand only?

[olivert]

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Good post Kuso. How do you know poker will be spread in Macau in 2007, or is that just inferring from the WPT event? Also will poker be at the new MGM/Grand only?

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The WPT has not announced a Macau event yet.

Furthermore, the WPT cannot really announce a Macau event until a firm opening date is known for the MGM Grand Macau.

I don't see a WPT event at the MGM Grand Macau until sometime in 2008, given the inevitable construction delays.

Furthermore, the Nevada Gaming Commission is currently investigating MGM MIRAGE's alliance with Pansy Ho, who is the daughter of the infamous Stanley Ho. The elder Ho has been alleged by western media outlets of having links to organized crime in "Greater China" (i.e. Macau, Hong Kong, and the Mainland). The Nevada investigation might (or might not) delay the opening of the MGM Grand Macau.

[Kuso]

[ QUOTE ]
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this is comically incorrect. some japanese have very little spare time -- especially the salarymen.

[/ QUOTE ]

Who are the majority of Japanese. At the very least, the majority who have cash with which to gamble. Just because you are young and hang around with a lot of young people doesn't mean that they are the majority of the population.

Japan has the lowest birth rate in the world and the most senior-skewed population in the world. Most Japanese are salarymen, not young hipsters.

[ QUOTE ]
of course, students have a TON of free time, and could also player during many of their classes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Students in America have a ton of free time during the day in America too, but poker servers are always full after work and until midnight.

Possibly wildly crazy theory: Most people who play poker are losing players. If you don't have a job, you can't afford to play poker a lot. Therefore, most LOSING poker players are people who work full-time and gamble in their spare time. Somehow I don't think an influx of students playing poker to supplement their income is going to help us much.

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housewives are also possible (i.e., they often have free time), but are less likely candidates.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is just a joke. For every Evelyn Ng there are 2000 dudes. Poker (especially online) just doesn't appeal to women.

I have lived and worked (as a professional online poker player in fact) in 5 different countries in Asia over the last two years. So before you go around calling my comments "ridiculous" try entertaining the idea that you aren't an omnipotent being.

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i think you're arguing for the sake of arguing, but i'll respond for those who don't have adequate information.

point 1

the majority of japanese are NOT salarymen. this is an incredibly common misconception about japan. even if you throw in blue collar company workers, you're still talking about a minority (i.e., <50%) of the workforce... much less the population.

also, your comments about disposable income are also ridiculously wrong. office ladies (OLs) have the most disposable income, wives second (they typically control the finances), and young people (usually unmarried) living at home are third. to extend this -- something i forgot to mention in my previous post -- is that a lot of japanese people in their 20s (and sometimes even 30s) live with their parents, so their income is just about all disposable income. these young people are exactly the targets that poker wants.

while your comments about the demographics are more or less correct, i think your conclusions aren't. just my opinion.

also, it seems like you've read a bit about japan, but haven't actually lived here much (if at all). your opinions are very bookish.


point 2

school dynamics are different in japan. first, japanese take A LOT more classes than americans (more like high school), but their expected level of involvement is quite low for most of them (if you can believe that). they have to attend many of their classes for credit, but it doesn't matter what they do in them. many people sleep, send text messages, or play games. my students are shocked when i actually make them do something.

also, another point is that daytime japan is prime poker time in the US. furthermore, i think most american students play when the games are most plentiful and good (i.e., night). i think your projection of US student habits onto potential japanese student players is cavalier.

finally, plenty of japanese students live off the teet, just like they do in the US. these people are donators in mah jong and pachinko, so i don't know why they wouldn't be the same in poker.

don't get me wrong, there aren't going to be a huge number of these student players, but i think that the numbers will not be insignificant if poker takes off in japan.


point 3

i clearly said that housewives are less likely candidates, so i'm not sure what your point is. i feel confident that some will play... and they don't have to be as good as evelyn ng to start.


point 4

living in five countries in two years most likely means that you know very little about any of them. the fact that you were glued to your computer screen a lot of the time rather than interacting with the locals reinforces this point.

i don't claim to be omnipotent (far far from it), but i have lived and worked in china and japan with the locals and i speak both languages. my wife is korean and gives me a lot of insight into that culture. again, i don't speak with absolute authority, but i have a lot of knoweldge and experience that backs up what i say.

there is a lot of money in japan floating around that could very well end up in online poker sites. the more i think about this, the more i realize that the amount donated my your classical "fish" will be a nice boost to the poker ecology if it ever happens.


if you want to have an educated discussion about this, i'll be happy to continue it with you, but if you're going to continue to propagate unsubstantiated myths about these countries for the sake of your ego, i won't bother responding.

[Kuso]

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Good post Kuso. How do you know poker will be spread in Macau in 2007, or is that just inferring from the WPT event? Also will poker be at the new MGM/Grand only?

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the APT post by Tony G mentions it, but i've seen it mentioned elsewhere (can't recall).

i should have hedged a bit and said that it's "supposed to start in 2007" since it's a topic i only have relatively weak second hand knowledge of.