Trickier Sit N Go Question

[blackize]

Well I think this all comes down to what your interpretation of "good" from the OP is. Mine is that each player will play perfectly as that is much easier to approximate than to assume that SB doesn't know to call 90+% when you push and that BB doesn't know to fold even AA when you push and are called as well as any other leaks these players might have.

As far as the BB overcalling your push, he needs to win at least 40% of the time to justify calling since when he folds you're 40% to bust ahead of him. He likely needs a much bigger edge than that because of the implications of ICM.

[catlover]

What is tricky about this? Fold. The SB will now put the BB all in on any two cards. The BB will not fold because it doesn't help him, as he will be forced to go all in on the next hand anyway. So you have a 50% chance of getting into the money right there. And even if this doesn't happen, you still have a reasonable chance of getting into the money later anyway.

If you push, there is some difficult to calculate but definitely not small chance you will be knocked out right there.

Getting into the money is much more important than any other consideration here. And for getting into the money, folding is better than playing and it's not close.

[LandonM]

[ QUOTE ]


You do realize that in a SNG each chip you win is worth less than each chip you lose, correct?

This can be realized through a simple exercise in logic. Assume a standard 10 person game with a 5-3-2 payout structure. You buy in for $200, your stack is worth exactly $200(not taking into account any skill differential). You now proceed to win the tournament and have all the chips in play. Your stack is worth $1000 rather than the $2000 you would expect if the value of chips were to stay the same throughout.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course. And well put.
However, if poker were a game I played against a machine in a casino, my considerations here may be different... It's only a mathematic and theoretical exercise to a point.

I can understand Davids earlier question about the KK being a bit easier a fold (even though i'm not folding it, i'd say 50% of the time)- but I can understand that.
These circumstances- that stack, these blinds, 2 to act- with K/J, I'm going and will take my 10% edge against a headhunter with a grin.

[freemoney]

lol this hand takes legitimately less than 3 secs of thought for a good sng player, the fact that you took time to write out this mess is insane. there is no better/worse answer to this question, its really just a right or wrong answer.

[citanul]

lol @ this thread. i mean really.

landon,

you might make money at these things "enough to not have to work" or whatever, but you'd get taken to school for your late game play at any decently staked sng is my assumption. fortunately real jobs pay like [censored], right?

moving in here with KJ is a fairly large mistake. it's probably even the worst option amongst the three.

c

[LandonM]

[ QUOTE ]


fortunately real jobs pay like [censored], right?

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL!
That's certainly true.. I'm still net winner for this year and last, so I guess I'm either on a real heater in spite of such poor late-game play, or doing something right.

[ QUOTE ]
moving in here with KJ is a fairly large mistake. it's probably even the worst option amongst the three.

c

[/ QUOTE ]

Why?
For any reasons not yet elaborated upon? Or is it just one of those "the case has already been made so go back and read the thread" sort of things... Because if it's the latter, I'm still in with my K/J. If you have some sort of line of thinking that hasn't been presented thus far, I'd love to change my mind on this- really, I would, because my K/J is still in, and I hate it.

[willie24]

[ QUOTE ]
lol this hand takes legitimately less than 3 secs of thought for a good sng player, the fact that you took time to write out this mess is insane. there is no better/worse answer to this question, its really just a right or wrong answer.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you can't put more than 3 sec of thought into this question, or if doing so isn't worth it for you- then does it necessarily follow that there isn't anything to think about?

[citanul]

willie,

i think his point is that anyone who is serious about sngs has seen this spot approximately 2 trillion times before and so doesn't need to think deeply about it.

c

[willie24]

all the more reason to think about it then, right? you wouldn't want to do it wrong 2 trillion times.

by the way, against typical opponents i usually call here, expecting to see a raise from the SB rarely, and a fold from the BB rarely.

I play all buy-ins, mostly the highest ones that have a chance to fill quickly on the sites i play (40-200), and i rarely see true expert endgame play. based on experience, i would expect an unknown SB to push my call maybe 15% of the time here, and an unknown BB to fold only about 30% of the time SB pushes.

If you want to hypothesize an expert SB though, I think this becomes a very interesting question.

[Luisgallo]

This is a clear fold or an instapushhoping SB will fold or my Kj will hold up.
I can't just call, SB will be on the hand for sure and to do that he has to raise to put BB on so I will have to call 1200 (1100).