Ron Jaworski on Reggie Bush- Rookie of the Year

[Jack of Arcades]

MJD's opponents in run defense DVOA:

Houston - 26th
Giants - 11th
Buffalo - 29th
Miami - 3rd
Indy - 31th
Tennessee - 28th
Patriots - 10th
Chiefs - 18th

Notice that almost his entire advantage comes from a big game against Indianapolis, who makes Ron Dayne look like the best back ever, and that fluke run against New England.

Bush's opponents in run defense DVOA:

Pittsburgh - 4th
Cincy - 13th
Atlanta - 17th
San Francisco - 24th
Dallas - 8th
Washington - 19th
Giants - 11th
Carolina - 6th

Adjust for opponents.(Also, pretend the Pats know they need to touch a player who's on the ground.)

[Jack of Arcades]

[ QUOTE ]
Isn't Vince Young the 3rd best rookie QB by DVOA?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, but that mostly has to do with his early struggles.

DPAR has him as the 4th best QB of Week 16, and the 5th best of Week 13.

[J.R.]

[ QUOTE ]
MJD's opponents in run defense DVOA:

Houston - 26th
Giants - 11th
Buffalo - 29th
Miami - 3rd
Indy - 31th
Tennessee - 28th
Patriots - 10th
Chiefs - 18th

Notice that almost his entire advantage comes from a big game against Indianapolis, who makes Ron Dayne look like the best back ever, and that fluke run against New England.

Bush's opponents in run defense DVOA:

Pittsburgh - 4th
Cincy - 13th
Atlanta - 17th
San Francisco - 24th
Dallas - 8th
Washington - 19th
Giants - 11th
Carolina - 6th

Adjust for opponents.(Also, pretend the Pats know they need to touch a player who's on the ground.)

[/ QUOTE ]

But at some point we have to recognize that Indy is ranked as as bad as they are because 20% of the rushing yards they gave up occurred in their 2 games against Jacksonville.

We could discuss whether Bush's receiving stats are padded by the 74 yard reception he had against SF.

My point is not that MJD is clearly better than Bush, but that they both along with Addai are all really great young backs.

[Jack of Arcades]

[ QUOTE ]
But at some point we have to recognize that Indy is ranked as as bad as they are because 20% of the rushing yards they gave up occurred in their 2 games against Jacksonville.

[/ QUOTE ]

Denver. Tennessee (twice!). Philadelphia. These are the teams they gave up 6.0+ yards per carry against that aren't Jacksonville. Hell, they only gave up 100 yards or so the first time. Did I mention Ron Dayne? Indy's defense isn't some small sample size fluke.

[ QUOTE ]
We could discuss whether Bush's receiving stats are padded by the 74 yard reception he had against SF.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's long plays, and then there's long plays when all the defenders don't try to tackle you.

[cbloom]

I like Jaws a lot but he says some pretty stupid stuff some times. Bush shouldn't even be in the discussion for ROY, he's done very little to date. You have to look at how the team would be affected without that player. NO would have been nearly identical without him. Brees was their important acquisition. Maybe you could give Bush the "most potential" award, but WTF is that.

[cbloom]

Also, players like Bush, Vick, Daunte Hall, Marshal Faulk, Barry Sanders, etc. are very exciting to watch and the "defense has to be aware of them on every play", but they don't seem to do much for a team's chance of winning (as compared to an equal-value player at the same position who's not so flashy, they may be -EV).

Also, in terms of "flash" players, Devin Hester is probably more valuable.

[Jack of Arcades]

Jaws has probably watched every single play Reggie Bush has been involved in, and he sees it from the right angle to tell how defenses react to him. You? How many times have you seen him play? Twice?

[Jack of Arcades]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, players like Bush, Vick, Daunte Hall, Marshal Faulk, Barry Sanders, etc. are very exciting to watch and the "defense has to be aware of them on every play", but they don't seem to do much for a team's chance of winning (as compared to an equal-value player at the same position who's not so flashy, they may be -EV).

Also, in terms of "flash" players, Devin Hester is probably more valuable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, post got cut off. Here's the rest of my post.

MARSHALL FAULK? ARE YOU [censored] INSANE? Marshall Faulk was one of the most versatile and consistent backs of all time. WTF?

[TheNoodleMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Jaws has probably watched every single play Reggie Bush has been involved in, and he sees it from the right angle to tell how defenses react to him. You? How many times have you seen him play? Twice?

[/ QUOTE ]

This can't be emphasized enough. The standard TV shot misses so much, particularly down field coverage.

[Aces McGee]

[ QUOTE ]
He replied that it was easily Reggie Bush because when watching the games you could see how much the game changed when he was on the field.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the real weakness in the argument.

Presuming Jaws is talking about Bush's versatility and that the defense has to pay special attention to him every time he's on the field, then I can't see how you'd vote for him over Young, who you have to defend like few, if any, other quarterbacks in the game's history.

If Jaws is referring to the actual change when Bush comes in the game...well, I think it's a bit dubious to give one player the nod over another simply because he splits carries.

-McGee