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View Poll Results: What percentage of your total income comes from playing poker
50% or less 101 60.84%
51% - 70% 13 7.83%
70% - 90% 9 5.42%
91% - 100% 43 25.90%
Voters: 166. You may not vote on this poll

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  #31  
Old 10-26-2006, 09:37 AM
kazana kazana is offline
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Default Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question

I'd do the exact opposite of what the announcer says I should do.
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  #32  
Old 10-26-2006, 09:53 AM
StregaChess StregaChess is offline
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Default Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question

Play looser preflop, limping for a monster but not reckless.
I would also open my pushing range pre-flop
Make your value bets bigger
Bluff less
Semi bluff more

Or possibly.....

[ QUOTE ]

five opportunities to win this one match

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pushing every hand preflop, well not every hand *cough*

However I think it would be very reasonable to use the charts that are included with SNG Powertools that contain the HU Nash Equilibrium Strategy and pushbot away....
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  #33  
Old 10-26-2006, 01:52 PM
PartyGirlUK PartyGirlUK is offline
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Default Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question

David,

I think really important here is whether you are trying to maximise EV for the tournament, or overall EV, i.e. are you taking opportunity cost into account.

Dean
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  #34  
Old 10-26-2006, 02:02 PM
djames djames is offline
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Default Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question

I would/wouldn't adjust my strategy based on assessing the following factors:

1. How I obtained this lead (e.g. suckouts, better play*, or coin flips),
2. How I believed my opponent would/wouldn't adjust their strategy given they now face elimination and perhaps a different strategy from me.
3. How I believed my opponent was counteracting the strategy I used to obtain this lead.

All of the adjustments in the original post *may* be ones I would consider.

Assuming standard solid poker by both got us to this point, I would change nothing.

*I assume skill can be equal as assumed, but perhaps given the circumstances one or both might not be playing at the level their skill may dictate (tilt, etc.).
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  #35  
Old 10-26-2006, 02:14 PM
Phanekim Phanekim is offline
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Default Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question

Play a lot of hands with low blinds preflop. Push hard with drawing hands like QJs with high blinds. Force showdown.

Make more huger value bets than normal. Not overdo it, but noticeably more. More knockout blow mentality.

Bluff more with textured flops as opposed to nontextured flops. This is coordination with hard semi bluffing on straight and flush draws.

Less inclined to call very big bets. Get involved in big pots if I created the trouble by raising big or reraising.
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  #36  
Old 10-26-2006, 03:35 PM
Jeff76 Jeff76 is offline
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Default Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question

[ QUOTE ]
In theory I would not adjust my play.

In practice I probably would get a bit more sloppy, having several lives left will likely result in me loosing some of my focus.

[/ QUOTE ]Same.
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  #37  
Old 10-26-2006, 03:49 PM
9LIVES 9LIVES is offline
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Default Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question

From this scenario, I clearly see an analogy at work:

Situation--Normal freezeout tourney, I am the big-stack, am head's up, and have my opponent significantly out-chipped.

The parallel is that in the "games won" category, you, in essence, are the big stack.

Therefore, I would play as I normally would if I had my opponent significantly out-chipped beginning head's up play. That play would be wholly contingent on my opponent's short-stack style and strategy, his mindset, and his overall willingess to gamble.

Assuming he was "desperate" and willing to push with a wide range of hands, I would play very tight and just pick a good spot. If he was patient and playing tight, I'd lean on him as hard as I could. If he doubles up, I still have the chip-lead [game-lead, in David's scenario].
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  #38  
Old 10-26-2006, 03:56 PM
tautomer tautomer is offline
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Default Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question

Use whatever worked the first time. If your opponent changes his game, adjust accordingly. Just like any heads up match.
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  #39  
Old 10-26-2006, 04:13 PM
Grizwold Grizwold is offline
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Default Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question

I'll make it easier to not explain since that is harder than it sounds for a lot of people. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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  #40  
Old 10-26-2006, 04:16 PM
David Sklansky David Sklansky is offline
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Default Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question

OK. I am now ready to hear explanations on your answers. And a guess as to why I see an analogy with the Snyder head up situation. And a theory about what is going on in the heads of the people who are screwing this up. It seems like there is a specific fallacy operating and it should have a name. And forgiveness for lying when I said I have to think about this.
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