Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?

[registrar]

Wow, so he checked the flop and then folded? OK, that's just [censored] whatever. Did he just limp in pf?

[Foucault]

It's far from a sure thing that Wasicka folds his way into second. It's quite feasible (as would have happened had Gold not sucked out) that Binger more than doubles up, and then Wasicka is the short stack. Getting Binger all-in against two others is the best way to ensure he gets knocked out. If Binger folds, Waskicka is still getting a sweet overlay with a big draw and a shot to double through Gold.

[seke2]

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It's far from a sure thing that Wasicka folds his way into second. It's quite feasible (as would have happened had Gold not sucked out) that Binger more than doubles up, and then Wasicka is the short stack. Getting Binger all-in against two others is the best way to ensure he gets knocked out. If Binger folds, Waskicka is still getting a sweet overlay with a big draw and a shot to double through Gold.

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It's a far cry from a sure thing, no question about that. But it's a possibility, and I'll willingly admit I've made some marginal folds for far less money when I was playing online and I was uncertain about a call.

Now, in this spot, I'd always, always call at any reasonable stakes, what the hell else were you hoping for when you played some middle suited connectors?

But would I consider folding for, say, a 40% chance of winning 2 million dollars? Probably not, given that calling is probably a 50% chance of winning far more money if you include all the endorsement/other exposure/future EV of comingin 1st...but there are certainly players capable of making that fold, and Wasicka was one of them, I guess. Or he totally sucks at poker.

[SilverLining1]

Obviously, Wasicka was correct to make the fold, because Jamie was once against "trapping him."

[e_phemeral]

What were the chip counts at the time? Did Wasicka have Binger outchipped? I think he did. When I saw this, I was screaming call call call, the worst that can happen is that you finish 2nd and the best that can happen is you almost triple up and have a decent shot against Gold. But the third possibility is that Binger takes down the hand and leaves Wasicka as the short stack. Not sure what the difference between 3rd and 2nd was, but it's that amount of money that caused Wasicka to fold. He's only guaranteed 2nd if Gold takes down thand hand.

[kleath]

I really think people are seing the cards too much here, its easy to make the call knowing what jamie has, and Im sure Wasicka gets it all in against one person, but if Jamie has KQs its a coinflip in jamie's favor, if he's got something like Ts9s Wasicka is a 3 to 1 dog. If his read is that gold has higher spades then it would be kinda stubborn to call.

Also the comment that whats the diff between 4 and 6 mill is rediculous, its 2 more million! Thats a really nice house 100% paid for, its 200 10k buyins, it could be extra money to put in stocks that eventually turns into 5 mill. The more money you have the easier it is to make even more.

[seke2]

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I really think people are seing the cards too much here

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No, not really. It's 3-handed. Gold has been playing almost every pot all day, he's insanely active and aggressive, he doesn't need a big hand here. His range is massive playing 3-handed on board with many drawing possibilities. Actually reading Gold for higher spades in this spot is pretty difficult given the way Gold played all day. Gold could be doing that with any T, any draw, any piece of the board possibly.

There should have been no question in Wasicka's mind that he was making an EV mistake folding.

[WaimanaloSlim]

Here's my reconstruction of the hand:

Blinds are 200K and 400K, ante is 50K.

Gold limps from the button and Wasicka limps from the small blind.

Binger raises to 1,500,000 from the big blind. Gold and Wasicka call.

After the preflop betting, the pot is 5,850,000.

Gold's stack is now 57,800,000.
Wasicka 16,350,000.
Binger 9,000,000.

Gold's stack is effectively 16,350,000. 41,450,000 isn't at risk on this hand.

Flop is 10c-6s-5s.

Wasicka, holding 8s-7s, checks. (Some preferred betting out here, and I agree.)

Binger bets 3,500,000. He has 5,500,000 left. Pot is now 9,350,000.

Gold moves all-in to 16,350,000. Pot is now 25,700,000.

Wasicka's stack is 16,350,000. Binger is behind him with 5,500,000 left.

3-Way Main Pot: 20,350,000.
Side Pot with Gold: 10,850,000.

Difference between 3rd and 2nd: $1,979,189.
Difference between 2nd and 1st: $5,897,501.
Difference between 3rd and 1st: $7,876,690.


(If Wasicka wins a 3-way all-in - and Binger is eliminated - he would lead 47,550,000 to 41,450,000.)

The worst case scenarios for Wasicka is Binger winning the main pot, and losing the sidepot to Gold, or Binger actually folding (which I thought was unlikely since he's bet 3,500,000, has 5,500,000 left and would be getting 3.7 to 1 on the rest of it if he sent it in - the only hand that leads 3.5M and folds to 5.5M more and getting 3.7 to 1 is a bluff with no draw) and Wasicka losing to Gold in a 2-way pot.

In the end, I think risking 2M for 2M *and* 3M in equity with 8s-7s on a 10c-6s-5s flop is a fine play.

[jason75]

Given Jamie's image (even though he's luckboxed more hands in one tourney than I have in my entire life) I don't see how we read him for 2 higher spades.

Why can't Jamie have T6, 56, T5, QT, JT . . . . ? Why can't Binger have TPWK?

Payouts were $12M, $6M, $4M. If we just figure $EV, and we say that given their hand ranges and the fact that Binger seems potstuck, we could give Jamie a 50% chance of knocking him out.

So a really lame $EV calc you could do at the table is, if I call here and Binger folds (thinking he'll do this near 100% of the time) hoping I get knocked out, how much more value do I need to get to make this a +$EV call?

Well, if Jamie is 50% to knock Binger out, what does the situation play out as?

50% Binger goes out * 2M = +$1 M
50% Binger doubles up * 50% I still take 2nd * 2m = +500K
50% Binger doubles up * 50% he takes 2nd * I get 0 = 0

So I have to guarantee myself a decision that will make me an extra $1.5 Million if I call here. If I call here and win 50% of the time, will that put me in enough of a position to win 1st place an additional 19% of the time over my current standing (1.5/8, the difference between first and third)?

Having no idea what the chipstacks are, I can't say. Given that I know Jamie had a monster stack, seems closer than I thought at first.

[kleath]

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I really think people are seing the cards too much here

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No, not really. It's 3-handed. Gold has been playing almost every pot all day, he's insanely active and aggressive, he doesn't need a big hand here. His range is massive playing 3-handed on board with many drawing possibilities. Actually reading Gold for higher spades in this spot is pretty difficult given the way Gold played all day. Gold could be doing that with any T, any draw, any piece of the board possibly.

There should have been no question in Wasicka's mind that he was making an EV mistake folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

Im operating under the quote that Wasicka said he thought gold had higher spades the way he put his chips in and how quickly he did it etc, if this is his read why ignore that? If he thinks Jamie has KQs and other guy has AT he's only got 31% equity in the hand and doesnt have the odds to call. His read was wrong but why should he ignore his read when he's already gotten this far by playing with his reads?