AQo in BB. Call down overcards vs 2 tight-typical?

[MN_Mime]

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I really cannot credit someone with a 4% PFR to raise UTG+1 with 99 or TT. TT is a long shot and 99 is no way in hell.

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I've seen a number of people suggest this so I did some manual searches and I'm now working on PT query to look into it.

My initial scans suggest this is simply not true, but a good starting point so perhaps I should have weighted the percentages more towards being screwed [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I looked at about 20 players with no less than 300 hands and a VPIP between 4 and 4.2 (the range of both opponents) and found mostly offsuit connector UTG/UTG+1 raises (all of which I dominate except AK) and number of PP ranging all the way down to 66 & 77. This last surprised me since my range only goes down to 99 and I raise significantly more hands.

When I have a breakdown I'll provide it, but I think the reason people think the raise range is so narrow is that the smaller hands simply don't get shown down so they only ever see the monsters.

BTW - not to be results oriented, but you'll see that he raised TT UTG+1 PF in the actual play.

[MN_Mime]

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Regarding the turn: You really can't give your A's and Q's full outs because it is very likely that one or both of your opponents has an A or a Q in his hand.

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I'm actually counting on it (and was wrong, but it was close) because it's the only way that I dominate MP1. There's no holding he can have that I am concerned about except *maybe* 88.

Possible MP1 holdings
QQ//KK/AA - PF 3-bet
JJ/TT/99 - often PF 3-bet
AKs/AKo/AQs - PF 3-bet
AJs - often PF 3-bet
KQs/KQo/KJs - calls
QJs - calls only if the table will come along
weaker hands usualy fold

When MP1 calls the flop bet with no cards in the playing zone and 2 diamonds, he pretty much defines his hand as [pick two] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]/Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]/J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] because I hold his ace. I dominate all of those hands, so as long as the flush doesn't come I will beat him. The Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is in MP1s hand or improves MP1 to a flush so I'm not even counting it. 3 (Aces) + 2 (Queens) + .5 (nBDFD) = 5.5 outs. The BDFD might only be drawing to 7 outs twice if UTG holds a diamond in his PP so discounting it is probably good but doesn't affect the odds any.

While it's possible that UTG+1 has QQ/AA the likelihood is reduced by the fact that my holding halves the likelihood he has either hand and MP1's likely holding all but eliminates QQ. I can eliminate AK/AQ, because I don't think there's any way he 3-bets the flop (again because I hold the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] so he would not be suited or drawing to nBDFD).

I concede I'm well behind, but all of the outs I've counted are good. I'm giving up the turn on any card in the playing zone that doesn't improve me.


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On the flop you almost need the BDFD to be able to call.

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This is true but mostly because it means that all of my Ace outs are live and not completing the flush. The fact that I have a redraw is a bonus.

[MN_Mime]

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I really cannot credit someone with a 4% PFR to raise UTG+1 with 99 or TT. TT is a long shot and 99 is no way in hell.

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I ran a query on my PT database of about 125k hand histories and required 200 or more hands to be considered. I did *NOT* filter by position because this was my first look at the PT schema and calculating position was not immediately intuitive. Balancing that somewhat, however, you must remember that I only have access to hands that were shown down... many premium and many more non-premium hands were almost certainly discarded. My resulting sample size is only 234.

hole_cards count freq
AKo 39 16.7%
KK 31 13.2%
QQ 26 11.1%
AA 23 9.8%
JJ 22 9.4%
TT 15 6.4%
AKs 12 5.1%
AQo 12 5.1%
KQs 7 3.0%
AJo 6 2.6%
AQs 5 2.1%
KQo 4 1.7%
99 3 1.3%
AJs 3 1.3%
44 2 0.9%
ATs 2 0.9%
KJs 2 0.9%
32s 1 0.4%
55 1 0.4%
88 1 0.4%
96s 1 0.4%
A7o 1 0.4%
A8o 1 0.4%
A9o 1 0.4%
A9s 1 0.4%
JTo 1 0.4%
JTs 1 0.4%
K5o 1 0.4%
K5s 1 0.4%
K9o 1 0.4%
KTo 1 0.4%
KTs 1 0.4%
Q4s 1 0.4%
Q5s 1 0.4%
QJo 1 0.4%
QJs 1 0.4%
QTs 1 0.4%

Note that QQ/KK/AA only totals 33% which should be discounted because 1) these hands will see showdowns more frequently than other hands and 2) I hold an AQ and MP1 probably holds a Q so it is less likely I'm against QQ/AA.

If anyone wants to run the query against their own DB (hopefully larger), PM me.