Paradise 1/2 -- Should I play this slower?

[SixForty]

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Woah woah woah. Am I to understand that you think if Villain has played 88 (or even J9) this way, he's "incompetent"?

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No - not incompetent. But what I was saying is that if I know that someone will cap every street with the 3rd, 4th, 5th, or 6th nuts, then I can open up my capping range to include more hands as well. It's just like playing a maniac who will cap with A-high lots of times. I'll cap him heads up with two pair on a board that has a 3flush and a 3straight.

All I said was that the better I can weight an oppoenents hand range, the better decisions I can make against that opponent.

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I think a player who just called down the turn with 88 is a bit weak, honestly. Sure, with 88 I just call the river 3-bet, but I'm not slowing down on the flop or the turn.

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Meh - if I am Villain here, and I cap the flop and turn and still get bet into on the river, I don't even raise it. Unless I know the guy betting into me is prone to betting into me quite light here.

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If you are 90% sure he has 99, then 3-betting the river is a bad play.

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I suppose this is true assuming that the other 10% will not cap. If they will, however, then 3-betting isn't a bad play. Big assumption, I guess.

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Even if it does get capped by the Villain all the time, whether he's holding 99 or 88 (or even worse) it's still -EV. If we know Villain is going to have 99 here 90% of the time, then 90% of the time we get capped and lose two bets (net -1.8 bets) and 10% of the time we get capped and win two bets (net +0.2 bets) So 3betting has an average EV of -1.6 bets. I'd say that's a bad play!

[bernie]

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But if this player is known to be able to jam a lesser hand, like 88 on here, then I can see it as a much easier 3 bet.

Say you just call, and he turns over 88. Ok, ya missed a bet at that point, but the next time, I'd be 3 betting him on the river now knowing he's capable of it.


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Absolutely true. The more that we can narrow our reads on specific players, the better we can get at properly weighting all the hands that we put in an opponent's hand range. And the better decisions we can make.

Good post.

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Woah woah woah. Am I to understand that you think if Villain has played 88 (or even J9) this way, he's "incompetent"?

I think a player who just called down the turn with 88 is a bit weak, honestly. Sure, with 88 I just call the river 3-bet, but I'm not slowing down on the flop or the turn.



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We're not talking about slowing down on the turn. A turn cap is a wider range than a river raise in this case.

If a player caps this river with 88, against a good player after all that action, he's not really reading the hands much beyone his own. So yes, his competency would come into question a bit.

b

[Dhani]

no, with the exception of check raising the river possibly.

[ham-el]

easy cap on turn and river