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#31
07-20-2006, 10:45 AM
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Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
[ QUOTE ]
Hmm, maybe I'm blanking on my blind levels. What is this, early 2nd hour? I'd weight the idea that Villain's stack size = loose slightly less in that case, but it's still a factor for me. Do you actually think this isn't a push, or are you just disagreeing about the read? [/ QUOTE ] From my first post: [ QUOTE ] I'm pushing this. MP villain may or may not be tight as described. Villain may just not have gotten any "pretty" cards in the last 2 orbits. Shove it in. This is definitely +EV. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, I like the push. 
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#32
07-20-2006, 10:47 AM
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Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
I think people get too enamored with the "push, stopngo, or fold" mentality. You are playing against a presumably tight player with a solid hand. Suppose his range was as you said (From fairly early position, as he is, I might even think he is tighter, perhaps not including 88, or KQ). You are only dominated by an overpair, which make up somewhat less than half the hands he is raising with. My observations about tight players are:
1) They "expect" that since they have waited so long for a prime hand, that their hand "deserves" to win. How dare someone call their AK with 98s and outdraw them! 2) They are predictable post-flop. Partly because they are so tight preflop, they don't get a lot of practice with ambiguous situations post-flop. So they like to resolve the situation quickly postflop. So I agree you have little or no fold equity. If nath (or any other LAG player) were the preflop raiser, I would not hesitate to reraise all-in preflop here. You are likely ahead of their range, and they may incorrectly fold hands like TJ or JQ that are coin flips against you. Against a tight player, why not just call preflop, with the following strategy post-flop? 1) if you hit a set on the flop, you are likely to stack your opponent. Check-raise the flop all-in. If checked behind on the flop, make a small probe bet on the turn, leaving enough behind to put yourself all-in on the river with another small bet. 2) If the flop comes A x x, pause for dramatic emphasis, then lead for about 600 and fold to a raise all-in. If they raise here, you are beat. You might get a higher pair to fold. 3) If the flop comes with two overcards to your 9s, check-fold. 4) If the flop comes with K x x or Q x x, most of their hands are going to miss the flop. Go all-in. You might get a JJ or TT to fold. 5) On any other flop, check, and watch. Remember, tight players want to resolve the hand as soon as possible. If they check, you almost certainly have the best hand. If they bet half pot or so, they likely only have overcards. If they bet full pot or more, they have an overpair and want to shut you out so you don't outdraw them. Raise a half-pot bet all-in, fold to a full pot or larger bet.
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#33
07-20-2006, 10:47 AM
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Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
[ QUOTE ]
I'm pushing this. MP villain may or may not be tight as described. Villain may just not have gotten any "pretty" cards in the last 2 orbits. Shove it in. This is definitely +EV. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, I like the push. [/ QUOTE ] Ok, cool. Just wanted to make sure we were just on a tangent there, cause if you didn't think it was a push, I would have been kinda perplexed. But you're just not putting as much credence in the stack size read. Gotcha.
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#34
07-20-2006, 10:48 AM
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Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] To both of you that just responded to my post: I play a pretty TAG style of play, loosening up as the blinds get higher, but still pretty TAG. I often have a large stack late in a tourny without playing LAG. [/ QUOTE ] Oh so at blinds 200 we're late in the tourney? Please. Stop the nit picking. Rockin', if you advocate a fold, come out and say it and say why. [/ QUOTE ] You really need to read the entire thread before you throw stones. I've already stated twice now that I would push. My first post stated that clearly. Nitpicking? LOL. You are criticizing something as small as me saying "late in the tourny" and I'M nitpicking for saying, "don't make assumptions based on stack size". Get real. FWIW, this is LATE in the tourny. Down to 50 players out of 180 is not late?
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#35
07-20-2006, 10:49 AM
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Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
[ QUOTE ]
W/ 10 min blinds... 10/20 0-10 15/30 10-20 25/50 20-30 50/100 30-40 75/150 40-50 100/200 50-60 100/200 25 60-70 So they are in the 50-70 min range, say 55 minutes. [/ QUOTE ] Na, Rockin is right, I checked the Stars site. 15 mins levels, 100/200 starts at the 1:15 mark. 100/200/25 starts at 1:30. I think this must be somewhere between 1:15 and 1:30 cause it doesn't look like antes are involved.
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#36
07-20-2006, 10:50 AM
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Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] To both of you that just responded to my post: I play a pretty TAG style of play, loosening up as the blinds get higher, but still pretty TAG. I often have a large stack late in a tourny without playing LAG. [/ QUOTE ] Oh so at blinds 200 we're late in the tourney? Please. Stop the nit picking. Rockin', if you advocate a fold, come out and say it and say why. [/ QUOTE ] You really need to read the entire thread before you throw stones. I've already stated twice not that I would push. My first post stated that clearly. Nitpicking? LOL. You are criticizing something as small as me saying "late in the tourny" and I'M nitpicking for saying, "don't make assumptions based on stack size". Get real. FWIW, this is LATE in the tourny. Down to 50 players out of 180 is not late? [/ QUOTE ] This isn't late, but it's not early anymore. Antes aren't even in play yet. Mid-stages. That awkward time once blinds get noticeable. We're still an hour away from the ITM bubble here.
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#38
07-20-2006, 11:00 AM
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Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
[ QUOTE ]
I think people get too enamored with the "push, stopngo, or fold" mentality. You are playing against a presumably tight player with a solid hand. Suppose his range was as you said (From fairly early position, as he is, I might even think he is tighter, perhaps not including 88, or KQ). You are only dominated by an overpair, which make up somewhat less than half the hands he is raising with. My observations about tight players are: 1) They "expect" that since they have waited so long for a prime hand, that their hand "deserves" to win. How dare someone call their AK with 98s and outdraw them! 2) They are predictable post-flop. Partly because they are so tight preflop, they don't get a lot of practice with ambiguous situations post-flop. So they like to resolve the situation quickly postflop. So I agree you have little or no fold equity. If nath (or any other LAG player) were the preflop raiser, I would not hesitate to reraise all-in preflop here. You are likely ahead of their range, and they may incorrectly fold hands like TJ or JQ that are coin flips against you. Against a tight player, why not just call preflop, with the following strategy post-flop? 1) if you hit a set on the flop, you are likely to stack your opponent. Check-raise the flop all-in. If checked behind on the flop, make a small probe bet on the turn, leaving enough behind to put yourself all-in on the river with another small bet. 2) If the flop comes A x x, pause for dramatic emphasis, then lead for about 600 and fold to a raise all-in. If they raise here, you are beat. You might get a higher pair to fold. 3) If the flop comes with two overcards to your 9s, check-fold. 4) If the flop comes with K x x or Q x x, most of their hands are going to miss the flop. Go all-in. You might get a JJ or TT to fold. 5) On any other flop, check, and watch. Remember, tight players want to resolve the hand as soon as possible. If they check, you almost certainly have the best hand. If they bet half pot or so, they likely only have overcards. If they bet full pot or more, they have an overpair and want to shut you out so you don't outdraw them. Raise a half-pot bet all-in, fold to a full pot or larger bet. [/ QUOTE ] This is bad advice. Calling off >1/4 of our stack to fold on the flop is a TERRIBLE line, especially when we hit a set ~10% of the time. And raising anything but AI post flop is worse, especially the bet/fold line. W/ a raise in front PF we are in push or fold territory, where I am leaning towards a push.
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#39
07-20-2006, 11:06 AM
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Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
You might want to run some numbers before you call this terrible. First of all, you are not calling off 1/4 of your stack, you are investing 400 more chips, which is either 400/1952 or 400/2152 depending on whether the stack sizes are before or after blinds are subtracted. My play works better in the latter case but I think I can make a case that it is still superior to a stop and go in the former.
Realize that we are winning far more times than just when we hit our set, including some hands that may be better than us. I personally despise the stop and go, because it totally ignores flop texture. Suppose you decide to do it here. The flop comes A Q T, all one suit, which does not match either of your nines... to go all-in on the flop here is suicide!
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