1/2 limit hand. Time to slow down?

[MrWookie]

OK, here's one thing that I'm sure we can agree on: if he's willing to 3bet the turn with a set, he's obviously willing to 3bet the turn with any straight: 78, or any Q. A straight is better than 3 of a kind. Thus, if he's willing to go nuts with a set or two pair, he's obviously willing to go nuts with 78 or any Q. Thus, his possible hands are:

QJ, which he can have 9 different ways (3 unseen Q's, 3 unseen J's)
Q9, 9 ways
Q8, 12 ways
78, 16 ways
total: 46

versus

TT, 3 ways, one on the river
99, 3 ways
88, 3 ways
T9, 6 on the river
JT, 6 on the river
QT, 6 on the river

That's 27.

If we assume we're not chopping, we're ahead by a substantial margin. We need to raise this river. Furthermore, I think that, contrary to what you think, most players won't 3bet this turn with just a set or two pair. Seriously, would you?

[Richas]

[ QUOTE ]
OK, here's one thing that I'm sure we can agree on: if he's willing to 3bet the turn with a set, he's obviously willing to 3bet the turn with any straight: 78, or any Q. A straight is better than 3 of a kind. Thus, if he's willing to go nuts with a set or two pair, he's obviously willing to go nuts with 78 or any Q. Thus, his possible hands are:

QJ, which he can have 9 different ways (3 unseen Q's, 3 unseen J's)
Q9, 9 ways
Q8, 12 ways
78, 16 ways
total: 46

versus

TT, 3 ways, one on the river
99, 3 ways
88, 3 ways
T9, 6 on the river
JT, 6 on the river
QT, 6 on the river

That's 27.

If we assume we're not chopping, we're ahead by a substantial margin. We need to raise this river. Furthermore, I think that, contrary to what you think, most players won't 3bet this turn with just a set or two pair. Seriously, would you?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep we are just about agreed on his hand range for the flop.

Now let's look at the turn. The 8 comes and he is still willing to reraise

QJ, 9 ways Assuming he would cap open ended str8 and top pair sure
Q9, 9 ways - do I think he would cap the flop with bottom pair and open ended str8 on the flop, unlikely but hitting the str8 would get him reraising the turn
Q8, 12 ways - unimproved str8 raising the turn? If he had a made str8 he'd probably slow down when the 8 hit.I'd lose this one here
78, 16 ways - sure he'd cap the flop, wouldn't raise the turn we can discount it now
total: From 46 we have lost 28 = just 18

versus

TT, 3 ways, one on the river - yep still good
99, 3 ways - yep
88, 3 ways - yep
T9, 6 on the river - maybe the 2 pair is less likely to have capped the flop though
JT, 6 on the river - maybe
QT, 6 on the river - maybe

27 if you include all, 16 if you halve the likelihood of 2 pair reraising the flop.

Pretty much 50/50 Post the turn betting round

Now the river - it pairs - he bets out. He's not expecting a fold, he thinks he has the best hand so I don't think he bets with any lower str8 as not only is he worried at the turn cap of a higher str8 now he has to worry about the boat. If it was evens before he bet out it's probably less now he has bet the river

QJ, 9 ways - maybe
Q9, 9 ways - Maybe
Q8, 12 ways - NO
78, 16 ways - NO
total: 18 at best, probably 9 or less once weighted

versus same as the turn 27 if you include all, 16 if you halve the likelihood of 2 pair reraising the flop.

18-27 dog with no weighting, 9-16 dog with weighting.

[ QUOTE ]

Furthermore, I think that, contrary to what you think, most players won't 3bet this turn with just a set or two pair. Seriously, would you?

[/ QUOTE ]

Against a player I had down as Aggressive I'd do it with trips against the BB just cold calling 1 raise pre flop. I'd have a decent pair (trips)as very unlikely, KQ as just possible but I'd half expect a BB raise with that. The hand range I'd have for hero acting as the villain would include open ended str8 draw, top pair, 2 (lesser?)pair - I'd want to charge him. I'd have KQ as a scary possibility but even then I have a few outs. I would not reraise 2 pair with 4 to a str8 - I have seen it done though especially against an aggressive player.

Now if you reverse the hand with villain what do you do with trips? He bet, hero raised - do you bet initialy, I would, do you reraise, I might well (against someone I had down as too aggressive).

Naturally I am no doubt wrong on all this accept with the main point which is that the likelihood and range of villains hands changes with each betting round, doing the crunching once then saying we are way ahead does not work for me it is not 46-27 to us on the river.