I own mike mautsow

[Rolen]

I have no doubt TWP will want to wait till you can contact him for the missing 7 hands, and I don't blame him. He is entilted to if he wants to. However, the only 7 missing hands are the ones missing from G2CU's PT shot.

[El Diablo]

jcg,

Any such info will definitely be appreciated, thanks!

[TheWorstPlayer]

OK, here is my argument:
The bet is, at this time, a tie. The burden of proof has not been met and there is strong evidence pointing towards the fact that g2cu was telling the truth about his results.

I PMed g2cu BEFORE the bet was in place, telling him that I had the opportunity to take a bet about his winnings and asking him if he would be able to post a PT screen shot proving results. If he would, I would take the bet. Otherwise, I would not take it.

Here is his response:
[ QUOTE ]

I would but I am in texas with multipole 2p2ers and have been playing on their desktops without pt. (Bonafone, Deuce2High, TraverstyFund etc.). They were all watching and could confirm my winnings or if u write up an email ill forward it to FT asking about transcation history.


[/ QUOTE ]

This shows strong evidence that he fully believed his results: he was providing witnesses and willing to request HH proof from FTP.

Since he didn't have PT available at that time, he sent another PM indicating how he knew his results were accurate:
[ QUOTE ]

I had 83.3k in my account when i started playing 25/50+, and finshed with 93.9k. Although a lot of winngs came at 25/50 so i dunno if that qualfies.


[/ QUOTE ]

Again, showing details which he could not easily make up about his FTP account balance since there were several witnesses to all of these events, as well as the possibility of several data miners corroborating. Recall that this is all BEFORE the bet was entered into, in order to tell me to take the bet - knowing that there would be additional investigation done.

Then, he was able to get the PT results and posted them in the thread. Results which were previously unavailable to him (he stated this in a PM from BEFORE the bet was initiated so he had absolutely no reason to lie about this). The posted results corroborated his bankroll numbers - the session resulted in a 10.5K win.

The combination of the PMs, the potential witnesses (please step forward and confirm!), and g2cu's PT stats provide strong evidence that the 10K+ win results are indeed correct. In addition, g2cu had no motive to claim that he was sure when he wasn't positive. If he had PMed me with "You know, I'm pretty sure it's 10K+ but I don't have any proof, sorry." then I wouldn't have accepted the bet and 400+ posts never would have happened on the topic. It is one thing to make a claim which you are uncertain of, or even which you know to be false to a message board. It is quite another thing to confirm to someone whom you know to be betting on the results that you have proof or can get it.

And what proof is there that he did NOT win 10K+? Well, the standard of proof is two identical data sets for the session. So far, there have been zero data sets presented for the session other than g2cu's. The first data miner did not have 25/50 action. The second data miner did not have 50/100 HU action or 25/50 action. So there is no question that there are not two identical data sets. This point alone proves that the burden of proof has not been met.

Edit: Also even the 200/400 numbers are not identical in any of the datasets.

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
ElD, it'll take me 20 mins or so, my argument rests on a bunch of calculations.

[/ QUOTE ]

First off let me say i am not 100% up to date on this thread, so please correct me if i have something wrong. that said. ...

I have a friend who datamines good2cu's games more than i do. I think he may have some of the incomplete info(the 7 missing 50-100 hands, and the 25-50). I am unable to reach him right now but am confident i will by tonight. If i have anything new to add i will post again later. If not bla bla meow chow

edited to see if this is even necessary given the current state of the bet....??

[/ QUOTE ]
Ya. If you have, or can get, complete results for his session obviously that would be helpful here.

[El Diablo]

TWP,

Also note that I have skipped over all new graphs/numbers/etc. in this thread so I can read both of your arguments in an unbiased fashion. I will then go back and validate them with the evidence.

[NajdorfDefense]

just to be clear, TWP, if g2cu were to confess making up his #s, that wouldn't be enough for you to admit a loss here? [just as an example of not needing PT 100.00% of the time.]

[Rolen]

TWP, you are saying that these two pieces of data cannot be proven to be accurate :

50/100 HU play
25/50

Saying that you believe G2CU's PT screenshot and then saying his 25/50 data could be false is rubbish.

Highstakes.nu's 50/100 data is identical to G2CU's, again, you cannot dispute this PT screenshots validility if you are to argue that G2CU was not doctoring his results.

[TheWorstPlayer]

That's fine. But honestly, why can you not just confirm that you understand the agreed upon standard for deciding, as I quoted from the referenced post by Rolen in this thread?

[El Diablo]

TWP,

"Is there any reason why El Diablo and the other panel members are not willing to acknowledge that the only standard for them to use is the one which was agreed upon prior to the bet and which has now been confirmed by both participants in the bet?"

As part of the judging process, we will determine what has been agreed to re: the bet and standards of proof.

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
just to be clear, TWP, if g2cu were to confess making up his #s, that wouldn't be enough for you to admit a loss here? [just as an example of not needing PT 100.00% of the time.]

[/ QUOTE ]
Unless there were some reason for that confession to be false. I'm not being unreasonable. I have seen many errors in many data-mined data sets in the past. We agreed that two identical sets would be the standard of proof and that satisfied my fears that the sets would be wrong. I am still not convinced that any of the data sets are accurate. But since g2cu's dataset matches his bankroll numbers, that is very strong proof to me that it is accurate.