ask me about fantasy baseball v.2007

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
durron,

Talking about fielding in a fantasy baseball discussion makes you sound like a fool.

[/ QUOTE ]

scoresheet factors in fielding.

http://www.scoresheet.com/bb3draft/aldr5.html

scoresheet also values steals for what they are worth in an actual game, i.e. not the overrated stuff they are in a roto league.

i know i'm not an expert, but at least i don't make roto assumptions about my league when the rest of you do.

[AbreuTime]

[ QUOTE ]
scoresheet factors in fielding.

http://www.scoresheet.com/bb3draft/aldr5.html

scoresheet also values steals for what they are worth in an actual game, i.e. not the overrated stuff they are in a roto league.

i know i'm not an expert, but at least i don't make roto assumptions about my league when the rest of you do.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

though i just looked at his numbers again and i changed my mind. but rollins, jeter, guillen and tejada are all CLEARLY better than reyes.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am interested in your reasoning for why Reyes is 5th best shortstop at best in your format. Do a lot of players change value (change relative to roto value) in this league format? It seems as though Reyes would have a lot of value in any format, since he raised his BA/OBP last year, hit 19 homeruns, stole bases 64 bases (at 79% success rate), etc. How big of a factor does fielding play, and wouldnt it help Reyes?

[Kneel B4 Zod]

[ QUOTE ]
also you must consider that in a league with a lot of trading, teams will trend toward the mean in most categories as they search for balance in midseason.

[/ QUOTE ]

tx. does this mean that I should overpay for the top performers? ie pay more than you would expect (linearly) for 15 steals instead of 10?

(that may not make sense, sorry, but I guess I'm asking if it can make sense to pay say $10 for 5 steals but $12 for 10 steals)

side question - I have guys with similar PECOTA projections, that play the same position, but have different salaries.

We have a fairly restricted trading cap - our draft budget was $275, but our cap is now $285.

yearly inflation for keeping a guy is $3.

my long winded question is, if I Chad Tracy at $5, who projects better than Mark Teahan who costs $11, I should want to trade Teahan, correct? (I also have Troy Glaus and Frank Thomas, so 1 should be trade bait I think)

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]

I am interested in your reasoning for why Reyes is 5th best shortstop at best in your format. Do a lot of players change value (change relative to roto value) in this league format? It seems as though Reyes would have a lot of value in any format, since he raised his BA/OBP last year, hit 19 homeruns, stole bases 64 bases (at 79% success rate), etc. How big of a factor does fielding play, and wouldnt it help Reyes?

[/ QUOTE ]

FRAA = Fielding Runs Above Average. Lets look at some stats:

2006:
Jose Reyes:
PA 703
AVG .300
OBP .354
VORP 58.8
FRAA -16 (this is abysmal)

Now. I posit that Jeter, Guillen and Tejada are all better shortstops. Here are their stats:

Derek Jeter:
PA 715
AVG .344
OBP .417
VORP 80.5
FRAA 7

Carlos Guillen:
PA 622
AVG .340
OBP .400
VORP 66.3
FRAA -11

Miguel Tejada
PA 709
AVG .330
OBP .379
VORP 65.9
FRAA 9

So Guillen is also not a good fielder. But I'm saying that Jeter is the best shortstop in baseball and that Guillen / Tejada are also very good. Reyes had an unusually good year for him last year based on past performance.

Edit: as far as stolen bases goes, Reyes has 64 last year but was caught 17 times, which means that one time in 4 approximately he was caught (and getting caught stealing is, in my opinion, about 3 times worse than the benefit of getting the stolen base). Jeter stole 34 bases and was caught 5 times, for a ratio of about 7:1.

[MikeyPatriot]

League: Standard 5x5 roto keeper league. 11 teams, $260 payroll.

Proposed trade to me.

I get:

Chien-ming Wang SP NYY $10

He gets

Jhonny Peralta SS CLE $10

Through same basic research, Wang seems to have more value for his contract, but that doesn't take into account that he'll be out for a month or more. The draft is next week and the only pitchers I'll have on the roster are Brandon McCarthy and Jeremy Sowers. If I trade Peralta, I'll have to pick up someone in the draft as well.

[ASPoker8]

12Team Roto (H, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OBP, IP, W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP)

ROUND 1
1. Devon - Pujols
2. Ryan - R. Howard
3. Brendan - J. Santana
4. Mike - Reyes
5. ASPoker8 - Soriano
6. Doug - A. Rodriguez
7. Jarvis - David Ortiz
8. Bobby - Carlos Beltran
9. Dave - C. Utley
10. Rob - M. Cabrera
11. Chris - Crawford
12. TJ - C. Carpenter

ROUND 2
1. TJ - Vlad. Guerrero
2. Chris - D. Wright
3. Rob - Hafner
4. Dave - Berkman
5. Ryan (from Bobby) - M. Ramirez
6. Jarvis - R. Oswalt
7. Doug - G. Sizemore
8. ASPoker8 - M. Tejada
9. Mike - M. Teixeira
10. Brendan - J. Mauer
11. Bobby (from Ryan) - J. Peavy
12. Devon - D. Jeter

ROUND 3
1. Devon - Carlos Lee
2. Bobby (from Ryan) - Jason Bay
3. Brendan - J. Morneau
4. Mike - Vernon Wells
5. ASPoker8 - Matt Holliday
6. Doug - Ichiro Suzuki
7. Jarvis - H. Ramirez
8. Ryan (from Bobby) - A. Ramirez
9. Dave - R. Halladay
10. Rob - C. Zambrano
11. Chris - Kazmir
12. TJ - Derek Lee

ROUND 4
1. TJ - J. Nathan
2. Chris - McCann
3. Rob - B. Abreu
4. Dave - F. Rodriguez
5. Bobby - V. Martinez
6. Jarvis - B. Webb
7. Doug - J. Smoltz
8. ASPoker8 - G. Atkins
9. Mike - Lackey
10. Brendan - Michael Young
11. Ryan - D. Matsuzaka
12. Devon - Figgins

ROUND 5
1. Devon - B. Ryan
2. Ryan - C. Sabathia
3. Brendan - B. Wagner
4. Mike - Mariano Rivera
5. ASPoker8 - A. Jones
6. Doug - Brian Roberts
7. Jarvis - J. Dye
8. Ryan (from Bobby) - R. Cano
9. Dave - Konerko
10. Rob - Rollins
11. Chris - C. Hamels
12. TJ - R. Furcal

ROUND 6
1. TJ - H. Matsui
2. Chris - Bonderman
3. Rob - B. Sheets
4. Dave - Harang
5. Bobby - T. Glaus
6. Jarvis - T. Hoffman
7. Doug - F. Hernandez
8. ASPoker8 - J. Schmidt
9. Mike - R. Harden
10. Brendan - D. Haren
11. Bobby (from Ryan) - Papelbon
12. Devon - Matt Cain

ROUND 7
1. Devon - Brett Myers
2. Ryan - Prince Fielder
3. Brendan - Dontrelle Willis
4. Mike - Barry Zito
5. ASPoker8 - Jered Weaver
6. Doug - Josh Beckett
7. Jarvis - C. Young
8. Bobby - Randy Johnson
9. Dave - C. Guillen
10. Rob - Carlos Delgado
11. Chris - H. Street
12. TJ - Johnny Damon

ROUND 8
1. TJ - Chipper Jones
2. Chris - R. Baldelli
3. Rob - E. Bedard
4. Dave - Scott Rolen
5. TJ (from Bobby) - Jason Giambi
6. Jarvis - Jim Thome
7. Doug - Gary Sheffield
8. ASPoker8 - J. Verlander
9. Mike - A. Dunn
10. Brendan - R. Zimmerman
11. Ryan - Delmon Young
12. Devon - C. Schilling

ROUND 9
1. Devon - Markakis
2. Ryan - M. Barrett
3. Brendan - Putz
4. Mike - N. Swisher
5. ASPoker8 – Juan Pierre
6. Doug -
7. Jarvis -
8. Bobby -
9. Dave -
10. Rob -
11. Chris -
12. Bobby (from TJ) -

ROUND 10
1. Bobby (from TJ) -
2. Chris -
3. Rob -
4. Dave -
5. Bobby -
6. Jarvis -
7. Doug -
8. ASPoker8 -
9. Mike -
10. Brendan -
11. Ryan -
12. Devon -

C
1B
2B
3B Garrett Atkins
SS Miguel Tejada
OF Alfonso Soriano
OF Matt Holliday
OF Andruw Jones
Util Juan Pierre


SP Jason Schmidt
RP
P Jered Weaver
P Justin Verlander
P
P

5 Bench
1 DL


1. HOW HAVE I DONE THUS FAR?
2. WHO ARE SOME GREAT PLAYERS I SHOULD BE HOPING SLIDE TO ME FOR MY NEXT PICK?
3. WHAT SHOULD MY STRATEGY BE FOR THE REST OF THE DRAFT? PLEASE INCLUDE ANY ADVICE [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[NT!]

ok. in a 12 team roto league, 6x6 that added holds. mentioned above. (ERA W SV K WHIP HD). how far up do i move really good setup men like linebrink, shields, etc? there are a lot of guys who are projected to be way up there in holds who are probably not even drafted in a lot of leagues... should i wait to see if people are overdrafting for holds or start taking elite setup guys early and try to take advantage of this category? also seem to be some great 'sleeper' guys for holds with good K, WHIP, and ERA projections, like Qualls, Duscherer, Rodney, Meredith, Neshek, etc.

this is my first fantasy draft ever tonight so any advice on in-draft strategy, analyzing how others are picking, and where to place setup men in this format would be a big help.

[crockpot]

[ QUOTE ]
League: Standard 5x5 roto keeper league. 11 teams, $260 payroll.

Proposed trade to me.

I get:

Chien-ming Wang SP NYY $10

He gets

Jhonny Peralta SS CLE $10

Through same basic research, Wang seems to have more value for his contract, but that doesn't take into account that he'll be out for a month or more. The draft is next week and the only pitchers I'll have on the roster are Brandon McCarthy and Jeremy Sowers. If I trade Peralta, I'll have to pick up someone in the draft as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

honestly i wouldn't keep either for $10 (if it's mixed; AL only is another story), but if you put a gun to my head i take wang.

[crockpot]

[ QUOTE ]
ok. in a 12 team roto league, 6x6 that added holds. mentioned above. (ERA W SV K WHIP HD). how far up do i move really good setup men like linebrink, shields, etc? there are a lot of guys who are projected to be way up there in holds who are probably not even drafted in a lot of leagues... should i wait to see if people are overdrafting for holds or start taking elite setup guys early and try to take advantage of this category? also seem to be some great 'sleeper' guys for holds with good K, WHIP, and ERA projections, like Qualls, Duscherer, Rodney, Meredith, Neshek, etc.

this is my first fantasy draft ever tonight so any advice on in-draft strategy, analyzing how others are picking, and where to place setup men in this format would be a big help.

[/ QUOTE ]

move them up a lot.

in a vacuum, a hold is more valuable than a save since there will be fewer of them in your league. in practice, unless your opponents are playing well, holds will be less heavily contested than saves, and the top holds guys will last much logner than elite closers. this reduces the marginal gain from adding another top holds guy when you already have a few. (the same reason you don't draft four closers in a 16-teamer unless you intend to trade one.)

[NT!]

[ QUOTE ]
move them up a lot.

in a vacuum, a hold is more valuable than a save since there will be fewer of them in your league. in practice, unless your opponents are playing well, holds will be less heavily contested than saves, and the top holds guys will last much logner than elite closers. this reduces the marginal gain from adding another top holds guy when you already have a few. (the same reason you don't draft four closers in a 16-teamer unless you intend to trade one.)

[/ QUOTE ]

oh yeah, another thing: we carry five starters, three relievers, one other P and seven bench players. so i can probably cobble some stuff together from late bloomers, callups, etc.