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#363
11-14-2005, 03:36 PM
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Week 10, post 11
Philadelphia -3 +115.7
$86.43 to win $100.00 11/14/05 Note: +114 is the lowest number to play for a 2 unit bet at -3. -103 is the highest number to play for a 1 unit bet. Alternatively, -106 is the highest number to play for a 2 unit bet at -2.5; -125 is the highest number to play for a 1 unit bet. 
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#364
11-15-2005, 01:46 AM
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Week 10 wrapup
Chicago 17-9 San Francisco to win -$6.71
Detroit 29-21 Detroit -3.5 +$50.00 This came entirely from the "opponent's defense stinks" trend. Exhibit 1: Joey Harrington. Indianapolis 31-17 Houston +18 +$250.00; Houston to win -$12.50; Over 44.5 +$50.00 Classic +14.5+ cover: a botched punt fumble recovery for Houston (actually two, a 2nd being a bit flukey, but then the Colts made no other turnovers in the game) and zero urgency for the Colts to run up their totals or attempt to score from the Houston 10 when up by 2 TDs with the clock running out. Houston did just enough to stay within reach. Never be afraid to take the points in this situation. Carolina 30-3 NY Jets +10 -$55.00; Under 40.5 +$100.00 Tampa Bay 36-35 Tampa Bay +2 +$100.00; Over 33 +$50.00 Who knows what would've happened in overtime. Regardless, +2 +115 is too good a number to pass up during an at-home OT period. Could someone please tell these announcers and commentators who think Vermeil and Gruden's calls from the 1 yard line were gutsy that the 2 point conversion rate (from the 2 1/2) is 50%? Green Bay 33-25 Green Bay +10 +$150.00; Green Bay to win +$100.00 Pittsburgh 34-21 Cleveland +7 -$98.04; Cleveland to win -$16.95; Over 34.5 +$50.00 Dallas 21-20 Philadelphia -3 -$86.43 Weekly Total: +12.49 units among 23.51 units transacted. Season Total: -23.17 units among 205.17 units transacted. With favorites still rolling at 80-59-4, this was a very good week indeed. I've come to the conclusion that it's fortunate the system gave up just 14 units in a 2 week period in which faves went 19-8-1. Week 10 was also a fine week for totals and I believe I'm well into the black on these for the season. I still make no predictions about how the next 7 weeks will play out. With faves apparently still not overpriced enough, their 58% win rate could continue or a severe correction could occur. My system hopefully, and likely, will carefully select the right ones. Cross-posted to SYGamel's NFL Picks
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#365
11-15-2005, 02:00 AM
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Re: Week 10 wrapup
Another good week, congrats sygamel. Keep it going.
I had ID'd Detroit and Houston myself but discarded them due to a couple minor factors. If I have time tomorrow, I'm going to go backwards and overlay my suggested picks (including those that were selected as +EV but were not selected for my top 4-6) with your posted picks - following along casually for the last few weeks, I think the overlap of our two systems might have a better overall result than either of us individually. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]
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#366
11-15-2005, 09:59 AM
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Re: Week 10 wrapup
[ QUOTE ]
Another good week, congrats sygamel. Keep it going. I had ID'd Detroit and Houston myself but discarded them due to a couple minor factors. If I have time tomorrow, I'm going to go backwards and overlay my suggested picks (including those that were selected as +EV but were not selected for my top 4-6) with your posted picks - following along casually for the last few weeks, I think the overlap of our two systems might have a better overall result than either of us individually. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] If you do that, I would make sure to gauge units played per wager, i.e. Detroit -3.5 was a 1 unit play, Houston +18 was for 5 units.
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#367
11-15-2005, 12:10 PM
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Re: Week 10 wrapup
[ QUOTE ]
If you do that, I would make sure to gauge units played per wager, i.e. Detroit -3.5 was a 1 unit play, Houston +18 was for 5 units. [/ QUOTE ] I will. Both of our systems suggest graduated unit plays, so I'll likely just weigh them so that 1 unit = 1 point and any overlap is worth something like 3x or 5x the value and see what comes up (i.e. i ID'd Detroit as a 1 unit, so did you, but under the combined analysis that would be a 3 point or 5 point intersection). We'll see what happens - its probably just coincidence anyways but at casual look its interesting.
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#368
11-18-2005, 04:13 PM
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Week 11, post 1
San Francisco 49ers +13 +100
$200.00 to win $200.00 11/18/05 Houston Texans +7 +102 $245.10 to win $250.00 11/18/05 Detroit Lions +8.5 +100 $50.00 to win $50.00 11/18/05 Tennessee Titans +4.5 +100 $50.00 to win $50.00 11/18/05
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#369
11-18-2005, 08:14 PM
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Week 11, post 1 (ii)
Including notes:
San Francisco 49ers +13 +100 $200.00 to win $200.00 11/18/05 Note: -105 is the the highest number to play for a 4 unit bet at +13. -118 is the highest number to play for a 3 unit bet. -136 is the highest number to play for a 2 unit bet. Houston Texans +7 +102 $245.10 to win $250.00 11/18/05 Note: -111 is the highest number to play for a 5 unit bet at +7. -123 is the highest number to play for a 4 unit bet. -138 is the highest number to play for a 3 unit bet. Detroit Lions +8.5 +100 $50.00 to win $50.00 11/18/05 Note: -105 is the highest number to play for a 1 unit bet at +8.5. Tennessee Titans +4.5 +100 $50.00 to win $50.00 11/18/05 Note: -108 is the highest number to play for a 1 unit bet +4.5.
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#370
11-18-2005, 08:14 PM
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Week 11, post 2
Baltimore Ravens to win +168.6
$59.31 to win $100.00 11/18/05 Note: +157 is the lowest number to play for a 2 unit bet on this game. +132 is the lowest number to play for a 1 unit bet.
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