Player Discussion

[mosta]

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If he chooses to play...[and] it gives him a positive expectation from that point on, then that positive expectation must come from somewhere. In this case it can only come from Player B who holds the jacks. Thus Player B's expectation is now negative from that point on.


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Player B with $501K raises to $500K pf with JJ. Player A also with $501K calls. Having called, Player A now has a positive expectation to play any two cards. "Thus, Player B's expectation is now negative"--??

[Mark1808]

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Mason explains above what probabilities to use given the assumptions he provided us. See Mason's "Analysis" post for an explanation.

I did not read the rest of your post.

Note that Mason himself has shown that the EV for AQ given his assumptions is 15 and he also agreed w/ me elsewhere in the thread that the EV of JJ is 40.

Again, thanks for trying.

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Both of your probabilities and therefore your EV's are wrong.

P(AorQ misses flop) = 44/50*43/49*42/48=67%
P(of a or Q) = 1-67% = 33%
P(J and Q or A) = P (J) = 2/50 + 2/49 + 2/48 = 12% * P(aor Q)=33% = 4%
P(AorQ and no J) = 33% - 4% = 29%

EV AQ = 67%(-110) + 29& (430) + 4% (-335) = $38
EV JJ = 67% (165) + 29% (-375) + 4% (-390) = $17

I am neither on Mason's side or Diablo's, I am on the side of correct calculations. Now sometimes The J and A or Q hit and the turn brings the flush for AQ, but that is very rare.

Plus plus plus, if AQ misses the flop they are done with it many players with JJ may not be so disciplined if A or Q hit and they are called (and rightly so, there is some % chance their opponent is bluffing), they may commit more money adding more EV for AQ and taking away a small amount for the times J hits the turn or the river.

I am satisfied my calculations are correct showing AQ with a higher EV and a stronger case can be made for a higher EV depending on how JJ plays post flop when behind.

The EV calculations are dependent on the size of JJ raise and the fact that JJ makes a continuation bet, as these variables change so to does the attractivgeness of AQ vs JJ.

I might also add that AQ is liable to stack up terribly against the range of hands that will reraise $150 preflop, making the call stupid for practical purposes. But would we have a 35 page thread if we were talking real life.

Thank you all for keeping me humble, your poker and statistical knowledge know no bounds.

[El Diablo]

Given Mason's assumptions of how the players will play, the J can hit on the flop, turn, or river.

You're welcome to try again. Maybe someday you will get this right.

[El Diablo]

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I am satisfied my calculations are correct showing AQ with a higher EV

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As I mentioned in my prior post, given the well-defined problem and assumptions Mason laid out, your calculations are simply incorrect.

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and a stronger case can be made for a higher EV depending on how JJ plays post flop when behind.

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This shows that besides your inability to solve the problem defined by Mason, you also have severe lack of understanding of NL poker. The JJ is not the one at risk for losing much more, it is the AQ. This should be obvious to even novice NL players. (Here's a hint for you: When flops like QJ2 happen, AQ is much more likely to lose a lot of money in the hand than JJ is likely to lose when flops like A29 happen.)

[Dominic]

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Mason,

Please explain your original clain that E[AQs] > E[JJ].

Matt

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I was just going to ask the same thing. You claimed to make a statement and said other players in the game were bad because they believed the opposite. What is your position and how are you backing it?

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Yes, please do this, Mason. If I were you, I would either:

(1) Call - demonstrate E[AQs] > E[JJ] in some reasonable fashion or
(2) Fold - admitting you are wrong and cutting your losses.

I'm not saying either of these actions is necessarily right for you.

To me it seems you are reraising with air - refusing to admit you're wrong and getting around demonstrating E[AQs] > E[JJ] by refusing to entertain arguments around it. It's very nice to see that you're responding to so many people, but I for one cannot see where you have addressed this point.

If you are attempting a proof by verbosity (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proof_by_verbosity), I don't accept it as valid. If you're not, please set me straight.

In my opinion, your reasoning as to E[AQs] > 0 may or may not be valid, but by itself does not show that E[AQs] > E[JJ].

In fact, as others have pointed out, since your reasoning shows E[AQs] < half-of-money-in-pot, I draw the conclusion that E[AQs] < E[JJ].

Thank you.

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While we're all giving out our qualifications, I have a Bachelor's and honorary Master's in Physics from Oxford University. I am also a winning 10/25 NL player and a break-even 25/50 NL and 50/100 NL player.

So Mason, I'll ask again, please demonstrate that E[AQs] > E[JJ].

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I have a BA in English, an MFA in Communications Arts, and I used to direct porn. The biggest math problem I can confidently solve is the name of this web site.

And yet I still think JJ>AQ in this situation.

[Wayfare]

[ QUOTE ]


Mark1808
member


Reged: 01/03/05
Posts: 181
Trip 5's bad kicker
#3910283 - 11/10/05 05:10 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply



Commerce $5 $10 NL

Loose player makes it $30 to go on the button, I call from BB with 45s and 6 players see the flop of 5h-5c-10c, 2 clubs. I check to the raiser hoping for a check raise but it is checked around. Turn is Kh and I bet $100, UTG raises $200 to $300, I have $330 left. ?


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[El Diablo]

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Mark1808
member


Reged: 01/03/05
Posts: 181
Trip 5's bad kicker
#3910283 - 11/10/05 05:10 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply



Commerce $5 $10 NL

Loose player makes it $30 to go on the button, I call from BB with 45s and 6 players see the flop of 5h-5c-10c, 2 clubs. I check to the raiser hoping for a check raise but it is checked around. Turn is Kh and I bet $100, UTG raises $200 to $300, I have $330 left. ?


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Wayfare,

I am not sure what your point was there, but I do not think there's any reason to try and mock this guy if that is your intent. While he is obviously not too sharp, he is a beginning NL player doing his best at trying to understand how to analyze poker situations mathematically and participating in this thread in a civil manner. So even though most everything he has posted has been all wrong, I think he should be treated with a degree of civility and respect.

[Mark1808]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I am satisfied my calculations are correct showing AQ with a higher EV

[/ QUOTE ]

As I mentioned in my prior post, given the well-defined problem and assumptions Mason laid out, your calculations are simply incorrect.

[ QUOTE ]
and a stronger case can be made for a higher EV depending on how JJ plays post flop when behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

This shows that besides your inability to solve the problem defined by Mason, you also have severe lack of understanding of NL poker. The JJ is not the one at risk for losing much more, it is the AQ. This should be obvious to even novice NL players. (Here's a hint for you: When flops like QJ2 happen, AQ is much more likely to lose a lot of money in the hand than JJ is likely to lose when flops like A29 happen.)

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It shows I suck and you don't! I'll keep trying though.

[Mark1808]

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Mark1808
member


Reged: 01/03/05
Posts: 181
Trip 5's bad kicker
#3910283 - 11/10/05 05:10 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply



Commerce $5 $10 NL

Loose player makes it $30 to go on the button, I call from BB with 45s and 6 players see the flop of 5h-5c-10c, 2 clubs. I check to the raiser hoping for a check raise but it is checked around. Turn is Kh and I bet $100, UTG raises $200 to $300, I have $330 left. ?


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Well I went all in and was outkicked, guess I made the wrong play! [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[El Diablo]

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I am satisfied my calculations are correct showing AQ with a higher EV

[/ QUOTE ]

As I mentioned in my prior post, given the well-defined problem and assumptions Mason laid out, your calculations are simply incorrect.

[ QUOTE ]
and a stronger case can be made for a higher EV depending on how JJ plays post flop when behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

This shows that besides your inability to solve the problem defined by Mason, you also have severe lack of understanding of NL poker. The JJ is not the one at risk for losing much more, it is the AQ. This should be obvious to even novice NL players. (Here's a hint for you: When flops like QJ2 happen, AQ is much more likely to lose a lot of money in the hand than JJ is likely to lose when flops like A29 happen.)

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It shows I suck and you don't! I'll keep trying though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Read Mason's Analysis post to understand the assumptions that result in the probabilities he uses.