OT: [censored] thread, Feb, READ RULES IN TOP POST

[suzzer99]

LOL at when the less than allin to look stronger move fails miserably.

PokerStars Game #8383541653: Tournament #42107240, $50+$5 Hold'em No Limit - Level XI (600/1200) - 2007/02/11 - 03:02:55 (ET)
Table '42107240 13' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: p2kelly (67027 in chips)
Seat 2: C-BO8 (7529 in chips)
Seat 3: xthesteinx (17851 in chips)
Seat 4: zugzwangedu (77719 in chips)
Seat 5: FerrariBoy (9220 in chips)
Seat 6: Royceroller (18545 in chips)
Seat 7: Faawque (14892 in chips)
Seat 8: suzzer99 (20502 in chips)
Seat 9: pop2K (18533 in chips)
p2kelly: posts the ante 75
C-BO8: posts the ante 75
xthesteinx: posts the ante 75
zugzwangedu: posts the ante 75
FerrariBoy: posts the ante 75
Royceroller: posts the ante 75
Faawque: posts the ante 75
suzzer99: posts the ante 75
pop2K: posts the ante 75
suzzer99: posts small blind 600
pop2K: posts big blind 1200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to suzzer99 [Ad 7d]
p2kelly: folds
C-BO8: folds
xthesteinx: folds
zugzwangedu: folds
FerrariBoy: raises 4800 to 6000
Royceroller: folds
Faawque: folds
suzzer99: folds
pop2K: raises 12458 to 18458 and is all-in
FerrariBoy: calls 3145 and is all-in
*** FLOP *** [Ts 5h 4h]
*** TURN *** [Ts 5h 4h] [8h]
*** RIVER *** [Ts 5h 4h 8h] [2c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
pop2K: shows [3d Ah] (a straight, Ace to Five)
FerrariBoy: shows [As Js] (high card Ace)
pop2K collected 19565 from pot
Faawque said, "brutal"
*** SUMMARY ***

pop2K: put you on a move

[costanza_g]

[ QUOTE ]
I sharkscoped this guy because I thought I recognized his avatar. No sooner did I find this graph than he pushed K5o on a missed flop in level 1.



[/ QUOTE ]

seagrams83? lol, looks like he's getting better

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
Suzzer,

Ask gramps about downswings.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, dropping ~40 buy-ins over the course of ~450 $1100 SNGs is an enjoyable experience (along with some sick heaters/coolers in hte $555s). The games have definitely gotten tougher, the huge big blind ICM mistakes were a lot more frequent the first month I played there, and some of the regulars have since really tightened up some leaks they had (plus some of the deader money burning off)...which means in all likelihood you're going to see some sick swings.

Right now I've dropped like 50 buy-ins in the 225s (after running hot in them for a stretch), while concurrently running at > 15% at the 114s. Yum. I also think the games at Stars tend towards being a bit more loose-aggressive late than the Party games were (steal raising/calling over the tops/some loose bubble calling), which means a bit more reliance on winning at showdown, which means, even given the same ROI%, you're going to have swings a bit bigger than before (up and down). That's just my biased impression though, I could be a bit off there.

If I were you Suzzer, I'd get $ RB set up at FT and grind like 2,000 60s in a month - that's $3,000 in RB + whatever you win there (though, of course, getting the money out of the site might be an issue, but as far as steady $/month that's a far superior "line" to take IMO). Stars just seems to be more evil than the rest when you're running poorly there. But, that's just my biased impression...

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]

Things could be worse. Just wanted a reason to post this graph.

[/ QUOTE ]

If that were a roller coaster, you'd have to take some serious dramamine (sp?) before going on that ride to prevent some serious barfing...

[suzzer99]

Thanks Gramps, I get decent RB playing the 5400 FPP sats. Of course I have to put up with some variance in that too, and on a super cooler right now in those too. But in general they have been a goldmine.

[suzzer99]

Case in point, it isn't that uncommon to see stuff like this on sat. night.

PokerStars Game #8384013125: Tournament #42738229, $55+$5 Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2007/02/11 - 04:11:30 (ET)
Table '42738229 1' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: SHARKY1 (1020 in chips)
Seat 2: Leetawil (1440 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 3: wags4 (2420 in chips)
Seat 4: Zach6668 (780 in chips)
Seat 5: mguth (1780 in chips)
Seat 6: tanmoney (1760 in chips)
Seat 7: diatty (1500 in chips)
Seat 8: TS1978 (1320 in chips)
Seat 9: suzzer99 (1480 in chips)
suzzer99: posts small blind 10
SHARKY1: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to suzzer99 [Ts As]
Leetawil: folds
wags4: calls 20
Zach6668: folds
mguth: folds
tanmoney: calls 20
diatty: folds
TS1978: raises 1300 to 1320 and is all-in
suzzer99: folds
SHARKY1: folds
wags4: calls 1300
tanmoney: folds
*** FLOP *** [8h 7c 4d]
*** TURN *** [8h 7c 4d] [Js]
*** RIVER *** [8h 7c 4d Js] [Kd]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
wags4: shows [2h 2d] (a pair of Deuces)
TS1978: shows [Qh Ah] (high card Ace)
wags4 collected 2690 from pot

[bones]

Best hand won

[Gramps]

Here's my example of what can cause some short and/or mid-term variance. Out of curiosity I checked my ptbb per blind level this month for the 114s (16% ROI this month) and 225s (-17% this month). At the 200/400 level (probably the best indicator of how you're running on the bubble/ITM), I'm at +0.14/hand at the 114s over 787 hands there. For the 225s, I'm at -0.16/hand over 509 hands. I would guess in the long run I should be about 0.01 or 0.02 per hand better in the 114s given that people play worse. 0.30, 0.02, there's no variance in poker...

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
I know no one cares, but here's Feb. so far.



I think I broke the scale. I'm down about 100 BI in the last week. I will probably be busto soon. In the last week I've had 3 of my five worst sessions in 1.5 years. I don't think the games are unbeatable, and I don't think I'm playing bad. I'm just losing everything.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK. Fine. You DO run worse than me. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Now you can start winning again. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's my example of what can cause some short and/or mid-term variance. Out of curiosity I checked my ptbb per blind level this month for the 114s (16% ROI this month) and 225s (-17% this month). At the 200/400 level (probably the best indicator of how you're running on the bubble/ITM), I'm at +0.14/hand at the 114s over 787 hands there. For the 225s, I'm at -0.16/hand over 509 hands. I would guess in the long run I should be about 0.01 or 0.02 per hand better in the 114s given that people play worse. 0.30, 0.02, there's no variance in poker...

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

How about losing 80% of your showdowns on the bubble over 22 days? Something like that might be slightly more compelling. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]