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#322
11-08-2005, 05:15 PM
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Re: Week 9 wrapup
[ QUOTE ]
I set my preferences to 50 threads per page and 75 posts per thread so I don't have this problem. However, I will start a new thread anyway. [/ QUOTE ] Cant hurt at this point [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] FWIW, your in good company on the sad side of the fence. It will change, always does. We need weeks/months, shoot even years like this to make money long term. 
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#323
11-08-2005, 05:26 PM
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Re: Week 9 wrapup
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I set my preferences to 50 threads per page and 75 posts per thread so I don't have this problem. However, I will start a new thread anyway. [/ QUOTE ] Cant hurt at this point [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] FWIW, your in good company on the sad side of the fence. It will change, always does. We need weeks/months, shoot even years like this to make money long term. [/ QUOTE ] I won 35 units last year so thus have now given back every penny since Sept '04. I am still up over the last 60 weeks of pro football and am confident things cannot possibly get worse than at this moment. The favorite bettors are flush with cash and will continue to move lines up and up.
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#324
11-08-2005, 05:55 PM
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Re: Week 9 wrapup
dont forget the more you bet, the less mistakes you make also.
as long as you can deal with times like this, you will be ok. you seem to have a decent grasp on handicapping (your picks usually fall in line with the guys i follow) and i personally think your betting teschniques could use some tuning up, but time will tell. cant wait for another blood bath this week [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#325
11-08-2005, 06:18 PM
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Re: Week 9 wrapup
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The favorite bettors are flush with cash and will continue to move lines up and up. [/ QUOTE ] It's certainly beginning to look that way. I was surprised this week: the Bears, the Colts, the Falcons, the Steelers . . . all bigger lines than I expected. I might just be a poor handicapper, but I see value in the dogs this week especially.
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#326
11-08-2005, 06:23 PM
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Re: Week 9 wrapup
[ QUOTE ]
dont forget the more you bet, the less mistakes you make also. as long as you can deal with times like this, you will be ok. you seem to have a decent grasp on handicapping (your picks usually fall in line with the guys i follow) and i personally think your betting teschniques could use some tuning up, but time will tell. cant wait for another blood bath this week [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Multicollinearity, i.e. the ability of two similar trends to predict the same result, thereby artificially inflating the win probability of a specific team, is the single biggest problem in trend systems. Before every season, I will spend hours upon hours making sure I've eliminated its influence by going through all my trends to ensure no multicollinearity exists. Because so many of my trends favor underdogs, this problem can become particularly acute during periods like the last 9 weeks. I am certain, however, that I covered all the bases before the season but will go over them again all the same. If it's a question of pedigree, i.e. the problem is the person making the system and whether it's truly valuable and mathematically sound, I scored a 720 on the GRE analytical section and 800 on the GRE math section 3 years ago. As I see it, the problem that exists within the system is the potential over-reliance on trends -- through the first 130 games of this pro football season, it is of this that I am primarily, and probably entirely, guilty. I will need to correct this in some fashion.
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#327
11-08-2005, 06:36 PM
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Re: Week 9 wrapup
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] dont forget the more you bet, the less mistakes you make also. as long as you can deal with times like this, you will be ok. you seem to have a decent grasp on handicapping (your picks usually fall in line with the guys i follow) and i personally think your betting teschniques could use some tuning up, but time will tell. cant wait for another blood bath this week [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Multicollinearity, i.e. the ability of two similar trends to predict the same result, thereby artificially inflating the win probability of a specific team, is the single biggest problem in trend systems. Before every season, I will spend hours upon hours making sure I've eliminated its influence by going through all my trends to ensure no multicollinearity exists. Because so many of my trends favor underdogs, this problem can become particularly acute during periods like the last 9 weeks. I am certain, however, that I covered all the bases before the season but will go over them again all the same. If it's a question of pedigree, i.e. the problem is the person making the system and whether it's truly valuable and mathematically sound, I scored a 720 on the GRE analytical section and 800 on the GRE math section 3 years ago. As I see it, the problem that exists within the system is the potential over-reliance on trends -- through the first 130 games of this pro football season, it is of this that I am primarily, and probably entirely, guilty. I will need to correct this in some fashion. [/ QUOTE ] yeah i have no idea what you just said.
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#330
11-08-2005, 07:29 PM
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Re: Week 9 wrapup
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] yeah i have no idea what you just said. [/ QUOTE ] ~Jedi mind trick~ btw no Theo anymore. Thoughts? [/ QUOTE ] i need a new avatar [/ QUOTE ] How bout a picture of Larry Lucchino juxtaposed with Pacino from Devil's Advocate?
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