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#313
11-06-2005, 08:46 PM
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Week 9, post 20
Washington Redskins -3 -112
$112.00 to win $100.00 11/6/05 Note: -121 is the highest number to play for a 2 unit bet at -3. This has become the worst betting day of my career. Devastating. 
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#316
11-07-2005, 02:12 PM
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Week 9, post 21
New England Patriots +4.5 -110
$275.00 to win $250.00 11/7/05 Note: -112 is the highest number to play for a 5 unit bet at +4.5. -124 is the highest number to play for a 4 unit bet. This is my 3rd highest rated game to date. The other two (Wk 9 Miami +3, Wk 7 Houston +15) both lost.
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#317
11-07-2005, 04:31 PM
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Week 9, post 22
New England Patriots to win +198
$50.51 to win $100.00 11/7/05 Note: +192 is the lowest number to play for a 2 unit bet on this game. +165 is the lowest number to play for a 1 unit bet.
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#318
11-08-2005, 02:03 AM
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Week 9 wrapup
NFL handicapping is now for the everyman and I am out of business as any kind of "expert". 14 favorites won outright, 11 covered, and many of them did so on the road.
San Diego 31-26 NY Jets +7 +$50.00; over 41 +$50.00 Cleveland 20-14 Over 38.5 -$50.90 Chicago 20-17 Over 34 +$50.00 Cincinnati 21-9 Baltimore +3 -$103.10; Baltimore to win -$76.34; over 36 -$58.75 One of the most egregious refereeing decisions of the season occured in this game. With the score Cinci 14-6, Bengal TE Matt Schobel fumbled a ball around midfield which was returned by Raven safety Will Demps for a TD. The referee near Schobel whistled the play dead but still, in fact, ruled it a fumble. This was a complete bonehead mistake that likely cost me 3.5 units worth of winning teasers, possibly a Raven cover or push for another 2 units and a possible over for 1 unit -- a potential 13 unit swing in all. When you're wagering is going bad, this is the sort of luck you find. Carolina 34-14 Tampa Bay +3 -$62.50 Jacksonville 21-14 Houston +13 +$100.00; Houston to win -$12.35 Atlanta 17-10 Miami +3 -$275.00 You're averaging 4.7 yds per carry; your opponent is giving up 4.7 yds per carry. What do Saban and his offensive coordinator do over and over in this one? Use gadget plays and put the game in Gus Frerotte's hands time and again. Atrocious coaching. Michael Vick played a great game. NY Giants 24-6 San Francisco +10.5 -$156.60; San Francisco to win -$50.20 Seattle 33-19 Arizona +4.5 -$98.04; Arizona to win -$29.66 Pittsburgh 20-10 Green Bay +3.5 -$107.70; Green Bay to win -$65.40 Two weeks ago, Vinny and the Jets; this week, Favre fumbles away a cover. Washington 17-10 Washington -3 +$100.00 Indianapolis 40-21 New England +4.5 -$275.00; New England to win -$50.51 Teasers Miami +7.5/Baltimore +9 -$150.00 Miami +7.5/San Francisco +17 -$75.00 Miami +8/Minnesota +7.5 +$50.00 New Orleans +9/Baltimore +9 -$25.00 Weekly Total: -26.44 units among 42.44 units transacted. Season Total: -35.66 units among 181.66 units transacted. This is the worst week I've ever endured and also the worst half of NFL wagering I've ever endured. Favorites are 72-53-4. At this stage, I am at a loss to explain what will happen the rest of the season. What won't change is my system and betting strategy. Unfortunately, my modest goal is only to finish breakeven.
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#319
11-08-2005, 02:17 AM
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Re: Week 9 wrapup
My guess is, and DougOzzz will be able to prove this with more certainty, but that what happened this weekend is not out of the realm of possibilities. The books and pros got killed this weekend. You can't beat yourself up over it. Also, you will have break-even seasons..in fact, you will have losing seasons.
craig
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#320
11-08-2005, 05:53 AM
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Post deleted by Mat Sklansky
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Linear Mode
