*official 2007 red sox thread*

[vhawk01]

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Edit: Okay, now I'm just being a smart ass. But I won't apologize for being concerned with looking at things objectively and realizing that we are no longer the favorites to win it all.

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I don't think anybody ever thought it was going to be a cakewalk. But the problem is your objective realization is based on so many near-random factors and events.

Like I just have a feeling you wouldn't be quite so dire if the foul ball Jeter hit on the pitch before his 3-run homer (which would stay in play in almost every other stadium) hadn't found the first row of the seats, or if Papi's bloop fell to center fell in for a walkoff. Or maybe if the Sox had held that 5 run lead in the 8th, which they're going to do 98% of the time. Or maybe if Youks hadn't been called for running out of the base path. Or if Gagne had gotten a couple borderline calls or Drew hadn't missed that ball by 8 inches last night. And so on.
But the good news. We've just about reached that time of year when at long last, these arbitrary things finally really do contain the significance that so many of you guys have been assigning them all season.

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Posting all that stuff in bold is so ridiculous. So there were a million little things that went against us in those particular situations but what about all the other situations where we won games that we shouldn't have when the little things went our way. All that stuff balances out in the long run so it's really not fair to mention the bad luck while ignoring the good.

What I'm going by right now is that the Yankees have shored up their glaring weakness in the bullpen while the Red Sox supposed strength in the bullpen has disappeared with the collapse of Okajima. Plus our once very strong starting pitching is also looking shaky.

We know we can't match up with their hitters so if we can't out pitch them we have problems.

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Yes, in the LONG RUN, that [censored] balances out. But 6 games ain't the long run. And its not like ALL those things had to go your way, if ANY of those things went your way, it would be a different situation. There really is just a ridiculous amount of luck involved in a baseball game.

[anatta]

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The sabermetric, scientific, logical approach its great and fantastic, but has its limits in the post-season, this is explained away by "luck" and "variance", but it goes beyond that.

You can't prove it, you can't explain it, but you can "feel" the magic of post-season baseball. The Sox are down 3-0, win one game, and the whole world turns upside down. Just one game shouldn't make that much difference, logically. Still have to beat the Yankees and Cardinals, and well, A-Rod and Pujos have great OPS, and in the minors, so and so wasn't disciplined, and as predicted, this translated into the majors, from this that and the other thing, we can conclude x y and z are more probable than not about Game 2 of the World Series.

Bull [censored]. The Sox broke the curse and the Cardinals had no chance. I'm feeling the Sox over the Yankees this year...however, my clairvoyance is of course subject to normal variance in the magical realm . [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

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LOL. Well, if you have these feelings and they are so reliable you should obviously be a billionaire, DUCY?

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I can only spend my magical winnings in the magical realm, so yeah, there I'm pretty well off. On the physical plane, not so much [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img].

[Toro]

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There really is just a ridiculous amount of luck involved in a baseball game.

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This luck argument really drives me up a wall. Early in the year when the Yankees starting pitching sucked and couldn't get deep in a game and they had a sucky bullpen except Rivera who they never could get to all the yankee fans complained that they were losing because they were unlucky.

Now they shored up those areas and are winning at a ridiculous pace. Why because they are now suddenly lucky. No, of course not, they are just a better team now.

[legend42]

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What I'm going by right now is that the Yankees have shored up their glaring weakness in the bullpen while the Red Sox supposed strength in the bullpen has disappeared with the collapse of Okajima. Plus our once very strong starting pitching is also looking shaky.

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These points are valid and, of course, they concern me as well. But they're also very volatile. And if you're going to mention them, you should also note Lester has a 2.70 ERA over his last 4 starts, Drew's .500+ OBP over his last 10 games, Schilling hitting 95 with his FB in the 8th inning, Ellsbury, etc. The sky is not falling.

Believe me, I watched the BOS/NY games as intensely as anyone, and I saw two closely matched teams. Beckett dominated Wang in the marquee matchup, and the 5 other games truly could have gone either way.

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Edit: Why is it that the really good teams always get lucky?

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So, I presume you think the Cardinals were the best team in baseball last year?

[34TheTruth34]

Anyone watching the pregame? I swear Jim Rice just said, "we still have a chance to win the AL East", but I may be wrong. Confirm/deny?

[youtalkfunny]

God, I hope these guys can win a few games, just so that this thread can pull out of its nosedive.

[youtalkfunny]

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I disagree, I feel that the Yankees will be a clear cut favorite and I'm not talking about "betting" favorite which it seems everybody agrees they will be.

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I'm not being a smart-ass with this post:

This is at least the second time someone has tried to make the distinction between "favorite" and "betting favorite".

Can someone explain to me the difference? Maybe it's because I was a bettor/bookie for so long, that I can't see it.

[vhawk01]

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God, I hope these guys can win a few games, just so that this thread can pull out of its nosedive.

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Haha, the best part about not being a Red Sox or a Yankees fan is that you can be sort of objective and just root for drama. I love the rivalry, I enjoy watching both teams, they are both excellent, so its hilarious watching their fans agonize and squabble and [censored]. I don't mean that as an insult at all, either. I'll be rooting for the Yankees to win the division only so I can give some [censored] to the Sox fans I know, but I'll be rooting for the Sox in the first round of the playoffs. If only so that we can have the ALCS that we all want.

[vhawk01]

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I disagree, I feel that the Yankees will be a clear cut favorite and I'm not talking about "betting" favorite which it seems everybody agrees they will be.

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I'm not being a smart-ass with this post:

This is at least the second time someone has tried to make the distinction between "favorite" and "betting favorite".

Can someone explain to me the difference? Maybe it's because I was a bettor/bookie for so long, that I can't see it.

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I'm no expert, but I can imagine there would be situations where the betting line and the "true" line could be significantly different. If for some reason a TON of people thought the Yankees were really good, it would make sense to set the line really high on the Yankees, because you are going to get a ton of (bad) action on it.

In general the betting lines are probably the best estimation of exactly what will happen, but that isn't the real point of betting lines, is it?

[THAY3R]

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I disagree, I feel that the Yankees will be a clear cut favorite and I'm not talking about "betting" favorite which it seems everybody agrees they will be.

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I'm not being a smart-ass with this post:

This is at least the second time someone has tried to make the distinction between "favorite" and "betting favorite".

Can someone explain to me the difference? Maybe it's because I was a bettor/bookie for so long, that I can't see it.

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Dude sometimes you just know a team is going to win, and it might not be a smart bet because greed is a sin.