Analysis of a downswing

[Vince.]

Call me crazy but I started at 25NL and didn't move up to 50NL until I had about 50-60 buyins. This is what I plan on doing for each level. 50-60 buyins almost ensures that I won't go busto. I also am a college student and don't have a job currently to reload my BR is I happen to go busto, so building my roll slowly but surely is a great way for me to gain experience, make money, and allows me to play with very low risk.

[orange]

Yeah, maybe thats a leak of mine too (PF that is). Jesus, I've just started folding ATo UTG instead of raising it. AJ/AQ are mostly auto raises for me.

[Grunch]

BW -

Sorry to hear you went busto. I hope you do get re-rolled, becasue I think you are a fundamentally good player & it would be +EV for you to continue.

I'll be candid. I think going broke will do you good. It sure did me a world of good. I went broke back in my limit days, and I remember making a post similar to this one too. I posted some big lessons I learned. Things like pushing small edges ruthlessly (remember, that was limit) and never letting up on aggression.

But I left a lot of things out, too. Things that were hard for me to admit to myself, let alone to the board. Things that, once I learned to accept them, taught me the lessons I really needed to learn.

Many of these things I now repeat here endlessly, ad nauseum. Things like humility being the key to poker. And things like you should always assume that your losses were 100% due to poor play, and variance isn't why you went broke.

I'll give you a concrete example.

You've said that you lost a lot of money on flush over flush. If this were limit I'd say, OK, maybe that's just sample size. But this isn't limit. You can't just call down & be safe. You shouldn't be overvaluing non-nut hands.

I'm no nut-peddler. (Just ask TWP) I don't suggest folding non-nut flushes. But a non-nut flush is good against an opponent who is overvaluing a hand less than a flush. They shouldn't be taken to a flush-vs-flush fight. At least, you shouldn't be going broke in these situations. If you're going to be in a gun fight, you'd better damned well know that you have the biggest gun. You should know when you are flush-vs-flush and when you're flush-vs-pair or something. You should know. Don't lose your stack to a better flush.

When I went broke, I was about as good at limit as you are at no-limit now. That is, pretty good. But the most important thing I took from the experience ws this: I went broke becasue I sucked at poker. One hand at a time.

Get back in the game, bro. Train's rollin. Next stop, mid stakes.

[matrix]

[ QUOTE ]
(sucked out on for ...) about 260 bucks... far, far, far larger than anything I'd ever dealt with at 25NL. To have that happen was something I was totally unprepared for.

In short, it really sucked.

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ouch. that blows.

That would have dented my confidence a lot as well. I still remember playing at $10NL when I won my first $50 pot - tht felt good - I was jumping around like a loon for a good 10 mins afterwards.

I'm just saying that for me I have been around the block now for a while and I can understand and accept that even if I get my $ in as 99% favourite sometimes I am going to lose - yes it would suck but I am experienced enough now to deal it it without monkey tilting more cash away.

Recently I lost a monster pot at $50NL playing 68s and that upset me for a while - but I got over it didn't let it get on top of me and I'm still here [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I know I'm a solid player at $50NL and to lose more than 6 or so buyins (meaning I'd have to move down) just isn't going to happen without a run of appauling cards.

I am comfortable with my meagre 10buy-ins at $50NL - I remain confident that soon I will stop breaking even and start making money. Lots of other posters won't be comfortable till they have much more in their rolls - and if you're not comfortable playing at a level then you shouldn't be there regardless of how big your wallet is.

I don't want to move permanently to $100NL till I have a 20 buyin roll + or until I am confident like I am now at $50NL that I am a reasonable player who isn't going to donk away most of it by playing badly.

Hope your next $250 pot gets shipped in your direction [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Jamougha]

[ QUOTE ]
I know I'm a solid player at $50NL and to lose more than 6 or so buyins (meaning I'd have to move down) just isn't going to happen without a run of appauling cards.

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FWIW -- I just played 7k hands at $50NL for a modest 8.5PTBB/100 and had one 6-buyin downswing. Yes, I had crappy cards, with multiple flush over flush and set over set situations each session and suckouts and KK vs AA and everything you'd expect, but it does happen.

Part of my problem, while going busto, was that I'm exactly the type of person you describe: someone who can sit at a table with a large fraction of my roll and play the same game. I can push 3 buyins on a bluff, b3b half my roll on a draw and it doesn't phase me. It just gets my juices flowing.

For exactly that reason, I think I need discipline more than most people. Fear, consequences don't stop me. I need discipline and willpower to avoid doing stupid, high variance things like buying into $1000NL with a $2000 roll because the game looks good. If you're the same then I really recommend you consider this. Yes, there's a fair chance you will get away with it... but if you do then you will probably keep doing it until the witch catches up with you.

Of course, I know you won't listen to me [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] but mull it over for a bit.

[Mercman572]

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Call me crazy but I started at 25NL and didn't move up to 50NL until I had about 50-60 buyins. This is what I plan on doing for each level. 50-60 buyins almost ensures that I won't go busto.

[/ QUOTE ]

It also ensures that you will make money much more slowly. 30x is fine, I'm in college too

[matrix]

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I'd like to emphasize that you should only take a shot with PART of your roll. Do not go 100% busto.

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Amen.

This is my plan - I know that personally I am comfortable at the 50's with 10 buyins - so if my shot goes wrong I still have my 10 buyins to fall back on so I am not shooting myself in the foot. The fim post says "take little shots when you are comfortable" and I am - so I will (when I can afford to - I'm stil not quite there yet but I will be soon)

[Paul Thomson]

Yeah, when players at the middle stakes don't play that loose UTG, then there's definitly no reason for us to. Tight ABC poker is where the money is at the small stakes.

[BalugaWhale]

shameless bump for morning crew

[Arito]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Call me crazy but I started at 25NL and didn't move up to 50NL until I had about 50-60 buyins. This is what I plan on doing for each level. 50-60 buyins almost ensures that I won't go busto.

[/ QUOTE ]

It also ensures that you will make money much more slowly. 30x is fine, I'm in college too

[/ QUOTE ]

I've just moved up to 200NL (this week) and my roll was about 7K at that time. Thats 35 buy-ins which seems to be enough indeed. I don't like people moving up when they have 10 buy-ins (especially if you play SH) but to each his own.