Kinsman1josh / Fobol on Party 10/20 Stud8

[Michael Emery]

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He apparently makes a couple grand a day in the game.

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This is a 10-20 stud/8 game we're talking about here? There is no way this is remotely possible.

Mike Emery

[Michael Emery]

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Assuming your numbers are correct, then the only explanation is that PP is fixed and he works for them. How difficult can it be to fix a site to the benefit of the site.

The other explanation is that he broke into their server and is able to see everyone cards. Is that possible to do? Maybe.

But other than that, no one can consistantly win $1,000 every day. Everyone is prisoner to the same probility. And if they are doing better than that consistantly, then there is cheating going on.


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I completely agree with this. There is absolutely NO way the top stud/8 player in the world could even sustain a winrate like you all are describing in this game. Hes either running insanely hot for the moment or there is cheating going on.

Mike Emery

[Bogglor]

I work in the computing field and I can tell you that without the cooperation of Partypoker, it would be nigh impossible to cheat via any traditional methods. First of all, a user would have to get into the intranet of the company which I am sure is absurdly protected. Then, they would have to have some knowledge of the PP server/client architecture and figure out where the seeds from the RNG are coming from. Then, they'd have to decode the encryption and figure out the order of the cards remaining in the deck. I doubt they could ever even see what the other players are holding. This is all extremely, extremely farfetched. Now, if he's a shill or something for the site, all of this goes out the window. But I don't believe that Party would jepoardize the entire integrity of their site just so they could earn a couple thousand back (or whatever) per day. The revelation of something like this would cost them millions. I don't believe it at all.

Now, with that said, after close observation of him for many months, I can tell you that he does do some rather unusual things that _may_ indicate that he has some kind of vague insight into the operation of the RNG. I can't believe I'm even buying into this, but it has made me say "hmmmmm" on a few occasions. For example, he sits out very frequently for two to three hands at a time, seemingly at random intervals. He often plays two tables and will alternate sitting out on them here and there. He very rarely sits both out at the same time. And he'll play hands very unusually from time to time, as if he knows what he's going to catch in advance of it happening. The hand history that mscags posted is an example of this. Kinsman is usually a tight, solid player as everyone has attested to so far. But he plays a hand like a split pair of 9s -- an absolutely terrible hand to be sure -- and calls down against an obvious low board like he knows he's getting half anyway? I loathe the fact that I'm even putting this out there since rationally I know he's a solid player with some seemingly insane luck. Perhaps he's done some kind of analysis of hundreds of thousands of hand histories and picked up some kind of pattern in the card distro in the stud game. Since the number of people playing any variant of stud on Party is consistently under 100 at any point, perhaps they did not test their shuffle as well as they did for flop games and Kinsman is exploiting that flaw somehow? I can't think of anything else that even remotely makes any sense that isn't a conspiracy theory. I'm not saying that he cheats, but if he did, this is the only logical explanation I can muster.

[PLOlover]

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I'm not saying that he cheats, but if he did, this is the only logical explanation I can muster.

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Well, by simple collusion he could determine, in the split Nines example, that the low hand could not have a straight, so he calls down for a virtual lock on the high.

To do this he would only have to collude with some regulars or hack/trojan their systems. I think this is very possible but not very probable. But if it can be confirmed he has won an incredible amount then I think this is how.

[AlanBostick]

I don't understand why so many people are skeptical about the $1000/day win rate.

Some years back, when the Outpost in San Ramon, California, was still open, they spread a $10-$20 stud/8 game with a half-kill to $15-$30 on Tuesday nights. It was a rare night where I lost in that game, and my typical win was more than $1K. I'd say that my per-session win rate was in the neighborhood of $800 to $1000 per night.

That was a special game. I count myself as one of the top ten stud/8 players in the Bay Area (but please note how faint this self-praise really is). The joy of this game was that only one other top-ten player, Tahoe Andrew, played in it regularly.

The $10-$20 game on Party is very likely tougher than that happy hunting ground ... and at the same time, the player in question can boost his win rate (especially in proportion to variance) by playing at multiple tables, and that at each of those tables play is significantly faster than in a B&M game.

I think that averaging $1000 a day playing $10-$20 stud/8 online is completely plausible, assuming a reasonably soft game.

[mscags]

360K+ in a year from a 10-20 stud8 game would be sick

[BeerMoney]

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360K+ in a year from a 10-20 stud8 game would be sick

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Are there really that many people losing money like that in this game?? If someone's gonna win that kind of $$.. There have to be people losing that.. I just don't see it.

[GIncognito]

As someone previously on the record as somewhat "fascinated" by the FOBOL mystique.. I sat at "his" table last night for about four hours. He lost about $600 in the time that I sat with him. He left with about $1100 on the table, but I observed two $500 re-buys. I concede he is a typically winning player, but last night wasn't one of them. Of course, I would like to perpetuate the conspiracy theory by suggesting he has read this thread and purposely called my 2-3-4-5 board with a pair of buried 8's just to throw us off his trail.

[BeerMoney]

I think the interesting direction this conversation should take is the one of playing an alternate strategy that relies on hand reading, and out maneuvering players on later streets.. Rather than discussing whether or not this guy is a cheat, how much he wins, etc.. Although, I guess to have that discussion, we'd like to know if there are players out there with alternate strategies that are winning.

[iamastud]

even if the guy plays 10hr a day, you think he can average 100/hr each day, even if playing multiple table. i don't think so. no matter how good or bad you are in poker, the cards have a limiting factor both in how much can be won and lost on average.