Typical Situation Math Problem

[italianstang]

[ QUOTE ]
25-50 Blind. You have 1000 in front of you. You make it 200 with AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Move all in here 100% of the time because:

If you are playing 25-50 with only a thousdand dollars LEFT, you probably have been having a tough time and might be steaming, people don't fold here steaming on a short stack.

If you haven't reloaded because you dont like reloading without going broke, then go broke so you can reload and take a real shot at this game.

If you haven't reloaded because you have no more money then you are in a game above your head anyway and this doesnnt matter

I usually try to get the most out of these strange Sklansky posts and find the theory/point of it but how is this realistic at all? The scenario is so contrived as to be completely useless. Why are you playing this game so short? How do you know so assuredly what the villain has? The variables have been construced simply so math can be used, which aint real helpful at the table yo.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
25-50 Blind. You have 1000 in front of you. You make it 200 with AK. Someone behind you makes it 500 and you are almost certain he will do this with queens or better and nothing else. If you just call and bet all in on the flop, he will always call. He will always move in if you check. If you move in preflop he will always call. What's the right play?

Assuming the above assumptions remain true, with what size original stacks, if any, is it correct to fold to his original reraise? (Assume all flop bets and preflop reraises are move ins).

[/ QUOTE ]

I would hate you to think that I'm constantly attacking your premises and strategies here, David, because I have a lot of respect for your writing and ideas.

But here -- you've got the reraiser on what seems to me to be an unrealistically narrow range of hands, which produces a very unusual situation, not the "typical situation" you claim in the title.

Because of the wider range of hands that's likely from a preflop reraiser in a tough game such as the 25-50, reraising allin with the AK on the short stack is a much stronger move than the mathematics of your scenario suggest.

Most of the posters have come to the conclusion that calling and folding are close, and both are better than reraising. However, in most games, reraising allin is going to be much better than folding, due to the presence of random hands and weaker aces in opponent's possible holdings, and it would be a disservice to your readers IMO to suggest that they fold here by creating an artificially tight opponent who makes it correct. The general contempt of high stakes players for short stacks makes it very likely that you will often get called by significantly inferior holdings when pushing premium hands.

IMO we should be training people to make straightforward +EV choices in the vast majority of scenarios, and that does not include folding AK preflop when you've got 20 BBs.

I am interested to hear other opinions from high stakes players.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree w/ creed

[Gary Stevenson]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
25-50 Blind. You have 1000 in front of you. You make it 200 with AK. Someone behind you makes it 500 and you are almost certain he will do this with queens or better and nothing else. If you just call and bet all in on the flop, he will always call. He will always move in if you check. If you move in preflop he will always call. What's the right play?

Assuming the above assumptions remain true, with what size original stacks, if any, is it correct to fold to his original reraise? (Assume all flop bets and preflop reraises are move ins).

[/ QUOTE ]

I would hate you to think that I'm constantly attacking your premises and strategies here, David, because I have a lot of respect for your writing and ideas.

But here -- you've got the reraiser on what seems to me to be an unrealistically narrow range of hands, which produces a very unusual situation, not the "typical situation" you claim in the title.

Because of the wider range of hands that's likely from a preflop reraiser in a tough game such as the 25-50, reraising allin with the AK on the short stack is a much stronger move than the mathematics of your scenario suggest.

Most of the posters have come to the conclusion that calling and folding are close, and both are better than reraising. However, in most games, reraising allin is going to be much better than folding, due to the presence of random hands and weaker aces in opponent's possible holdings, and it would be a disservice to your readers IMO to suggest that they fold here by creating an artificially tight opponent who makes it correct. The general contempt of high stakes players for short stacks makes it very likely that you will often get called by significantly inferior holdings when pushing premium hands.

IMO we should be training people to make straightforward +EV choices in the vast majority of scenarios, and that does not include folding AK preflop when you've got 20 BBs.

I am interested to hear other opinions from high stakes players.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree w/ creed

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree w/ bobbo

[whitelime]

It's a pure math problem:

Calculate the number of possible combinations of AA, KK, QQ given that you hold AK. Then calculate your equity (weighted for # of combinations) against each hand. Factor in the money already in the pot.

I'm willing to bet it comes out as a fold. Second best option is obviously call and then check-call all-in on certain flops.

Edit: Second best option can also be bet-all in on certain flops since it's essentially the same thing.

[snappo]

Is the AK suited or offsuit, or both (weighted)?

[IronUnkind]

I suppose David errs in describing this situation as "typical." Also irksome is his unnecessary injection of the vague concept of "near certainty." Most of the posters have rightly disregarded these minor issues, however, and tackled the question at hand.

I'm a bit unclear as to whether this problem is part of some larger ax which David wishes to grind, since the question itself is fairly pedestrian. But alas, it may be worthwhile to disabuse people of the idea that AK requires an automatic all-in move in certain short-stack situations. For what it's worth, I'm quite sure that I've faced the rare opponent whose reraising range in this situation is precisely this narrow.

The second part of the question, though, doesn't follow for me, since it is not clear whether my opponent would continue to put all of his chips in the pot on the flop even if I had a larger stack than the current 1000. If so, then would it ever be correct to fold AK in this spot?

If I'm much shorter than 20BB, then it's tough to avoid getting it all in preflop. If I'm deeper, then I'd guess I'm getting the implied odds to call since I'm guaranteed to stack my opponent if I outflop him (assuming, of course, that a call in this situation is either correct or only slightly wrong). Am I missing something here?

[IronUnkind]

Of course the situation is contrived. The point is not specifically about how to play AK preflop; it is to get you to see that a solid theoretical grounding and proper thinking can keep you from being exploited by certain opponents.

[integrate]

According to Creed's explanation, all-in preflop, I agree. You only hope he doesn't have AA. KK, you still have your A(hopefully) and QQ is a race.

However, pure mathematically speaking, as DS has said that the Villain won't do this without Qs or better, it'd have to be a fold.

I guess I'm contradicting myself, but the chances that he has AA, KK are slim because you're holding AK, but then if he's holding QQ you're not only losing but there's ,hypothetically, only a 1 in 4 chance (although it's slightly greater since you're holding AK) that he's holding QQ, out of the 4 hands he could be holding (AA, KK, AK, QQ).

But I'm also an Engineer and not a Mathematician..so who the hell cares?

[JimDrang]

Well all in preflop has to be wrong b/c it will give us an EV of ~709 so we will lose 91 more than the 200 we already have invested assuming we are suited.

Calling preflop we will be getting 3.15:1 pot odds on flop to get it in meaning we will need an EV of .241 on flop to get it in and break even, but simply assuming we only put it in with gutshot, flushdraw, and pair:

I started to do this but there's so many scenerios it would take too long.

[locutus2002]

You can't do this without enumerating all the possibilities and add them up. I think the fact that villain pays you off 100% of the time shows an upper bound for hero's EV.

I'm going to simplify using crude math.

25% of the time he has AA, 15% of the time you hit the K and go broke, 85% of the time you whif and fold and have T500 => EV ~105.
25% of the time he has KK, 15% of the time you hit the A for T2075, 85% of the time you whif and fold and have T500 => EV ~180
50% of the time he has QQ, 30% of the time you hit the A/K for T2075, 70% of the time you whif and fold and have T500 => EV ~490.

Total EV = ~ (105+180+490) ~ 780

Folding has an EV of 800

It's unlikely that hero will get paid 100% of the time.
It's bounded below by a very small number just from the ocular method.