Limit Holdem Hypothetical Question

[superchoatie]

I think we can play many more hands per hour, because we want to be in the pot with most of our legitimate hands, and whenever we can isolate the man on our right.

Let's say we hold AJo, and we see villian enter with an exposed card lower than a jack. I think we raise every time here, because we have a good chance of dominating our villian.

If our villian opens the betting, we're in great shape because of our informational advantage. If everyone folds around including our villian, we get the blinds plus our villian's money, which is 2.5 BB. If this situation (everyone folds) happens once every 2.5 hours, we've doubled our hourly rate from 1 to 2 BB. This effect might be even more noticable if our villian raises. Let's say villain is in Early position and we see a 9 of hearts, and he raises. We can reraise with QTo and put villian on a very small range of hands. Since we know he's solid, he either has 99, or A9s (hearts).

Because we know villian is a good player we really almost know BOTH of his cards. (he's not playing 93o, K9o etc. from early or middle position). Thus we're in a position to isolate him with reraises and take down some large pots.

We may also be able to isolate him with lousy hands profitably. Let's say we hold Q3o, and we see the villain has the 9 of hearts. When Villian opens we raise. Now if villian calls, and the flop comes with no 9 and no Ace but overcards to the 9, we can probably bluff him off the hand. if a Q falls we can value bet.

Whenever the table allows us to isolate the villian I think we're going to average several big bets. We're never going to pay off our Villian but he's frequently going to lose to us.

Because of hand selection I think we can treat it as if 2 cards are out of the deck when villian raises or calls from early or middle position.

I'd say we make our 1 BB per hour on our legitimate hands, plus we can enter half the time villain enters (whenever we have at least one overcard to villains card) and we probably average at least 2 or 3 BB on our plays against villain. Since the table is solid yet doesn't catch on to the situation, I think we're isolating villain 50% of the time (4 BB EV?), getting everyone to fold 25% of the time (2.5BB EV) and getting into a screwed up situation 25% of the time (-2BB). This totals out to 2.25BB per tricky play.

So, maybe we have 1.1 BB per hour now on our regular hands, and we're also playing half of the time when villain opens the betting (let's say he plays 4 hands per hour and opens twice). Thus we're getting 2.25BB additional per hour from our sneaky plays.

3.35 BB per hour.

[Drontier]

this seems huge. holdem is about isolation and who better than someone right on your right. I'm raising almost 100% of the hands he limps with even if I see an ace. Half of his hand his transparent and if he is at all decent the other card can only be a few choices. I'd 3 bet him with many weaker holdings if he opens and isolate him whenever I have a legit chance to get it HU. This has got to be a bonus of more than 1bb/hr.

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

i think the isolation factor is certainly the largest to be considered here.

i dont give you more than an extra .5BB an hr tho.

1.5BB

[vypremik]

I think there are more things going on here than most people are considering. The knowledge of another player’s card can be an advantage in several ways. The fact that this player is one your right is optimal, as you get to play after him 89% of the time.

First, there are some advantages to knowing the card even when Mr. Right folds.

1) As someone pointed out, the deck is one card smaller, which gives you a small statistical advantage. That by itself is small, probably less than 0.1BB/hr

2) But remember that is not just removing a random card – it is a specific card. Lets say Mr. Right folds a 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. If the flop then comes with two 7’s, or 5-6-8 rainbow, or 3 hearts, your have a huge advantage on the table because you know that the 7H is out of play. I expect the known folded card would affect the flop about 30% of the time.

3) If you hold the same number Mr. Right folds, it helps you to know that your hand is weaker against your remaining opponents. How strong does your KQ-offsuit look against 2 limpers when Mr. Right folds a King? You can expect his card to match one or both of yours (and therefore weaken your hand) about 6% of the time. We need to remember that money NOT lost is the same thing as money gained.

4) A final effect on the other players would be a change in your image. Since you are playing your optimal game, you will start winning more/losing less. This may affect your table image and result in a change in the way that they play you. This by itself may cause another player to be hesitant to face you and may result in more lay downs against you. It is hard to put a value on this, but if it happens only once every other hour, you can see a gain from it.


Of course, when Mr. Right is in the pot, you have a huge advantage and can greatly increase your odds of winning more or losing less money.

5) First, and most obvious, you know one of the cards he is playing. Many people have discussed this already. You can get a pretty good idea of how his cards stack up to yours through the whole hand. This is the biggest advantage and will probably affect about 25% of the hands. Sometimes it will make you more likely to enter and hope to win more, sometimes it will keep you from entering and, therefore, lose less. Again, not losing money counts as a positive gain for you.

6) Your domination of Mr. Right will continue, even when you are not in the hand. You will learn his playing style and be privy to his betting styles, slow-plays, and bluffs. Within a few hours, you will likely have a good idea of what his second card is simply by the way he plays the hands. In other words, you could make the correct move on Mr. Right over 80% of the time. You may as well be playing with his chips.

7) Unfortunately, there can be a small, long-term disadvantage. Your complete domination of Mr. Right may cause him to nearly cease playing with you. While this has an advantage by itself, it will not be as valuable to have Mr. Right folding almost every time you enter a pot. He will probably not stick around for long, but you never know. If he figures it is short-term bad luck, he may lose his mortgage to you.

The effect of all of this is kind of hard to put a precise number on. You will almost certainly play more hands with your added advantage. Lets say you increase from playing 10 hands/hr up to 12. I would put the advantages as follows:

1) 0.1BB
2) 0.5BB
3) 0.2BB
4) 0.1BB
5) and 6) 4.0BB
7) –0.5BB (negative)

For a total estimated effect of about 4.4 BB per hour.

This may even be a low estimate, but it is hard to put an exact number on hypothetical situations.

[TomBrooks]

So Mr. Sklansky,

What say you?

TBk

[PocketElevens]

[ QUOTE ]

7) Unfortunately, there can be a small, long-term disadvantage. Your complete domination of Mr. Right may cause him to nearly cease playing with you. While this has an advantage by itself, it will not be as valuable to have Mr. Right folding almost every time you enter a pot. He will probably not stick around for long, but you never know. If he figures it is short-term bad luck, he may lose his mortgage to you.


[/ QUOTE ]

What your saying here I agree with totally, however since it was stated that "you will go undetected" I think we are supposed to ignore this point. And treat this like the poor sap never catches on that hes been paying you off all night and never getting payed off by you.