Whoa... - Page 3

nightwood · #21 08-24-2007, 10:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
a) fold
b)c-bet 2/3 pot give up if called
c) c bet 2/3 pot and prob stack off
d)see c

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll think about that.

BTW .. let's assume we think his 0%-PFR comes from card-deadness only. What do you think about trying to win this pot preflop with a 3bet-AI raise trying to represent AA ? Of course it's gambling, but is it ..

[ ] disputable
[ ] bad
[ ] go, quit poker

monkeymaps · #22 08-24-2007, 10:54 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
a) fold
b)c-bet 2/3 pot give up if called
c) c bet 2/3 pot and prob stack off
d)see c

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll think about that.

BTW .. let's assume we think his 0%-PFR comes from card-deadness only. What do you think about trying to win this pot preflop with a 3bet-AI raise trying to represent AA ? Of course it's gambling, but is it ..

[ ] disputable
[ ] bad
[ ] go, quit poker

[/ QUOTE ]

3 bet push is not the way to rep AA DUCY?

not to mention this is not a great spot to turn your hand into a bluff.

nightwood · #23 08-24-2007, 12:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]

3 bet push is not the way to rep AA DUCY?

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess because airlines usually want to be called/raised and not to drive out opponents.

[ QUOTE ]

not to mention this is not a great spot to turn your hand into a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think it's a mere bluff. Assumption was that UTG folds and that villain has a wider ('normal' CO-raising) range. So we have fold equity, go most probably busto against AA/KK and have 45-55% showdown value against probable other calling hands.

monkeymaps · #24 08-24-2007, 12:15 PM

just not a fan of 3-bet pushing with 100bb stacks use your post flop skill to beat oponents.

Bill Smith · #25 08-24-2007, 12:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
a) fold
b)c-bet 2/3 pot give up if called
c) c bet 2/3 pot and prob stack off
d)see c

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is how we plan to play postflop (and I can't see how else we play), then 3-betting is a bad idea.

a) We almost never fold him out with our 3-bet. About 25% of the time, he pushes and we fold.
b) 67% of the time we miss. We c-bet and probably fold him out around 40% of the time (including other AK's and JJ on a Q-high flop) but lose our investment + c-bet the other 60%. This is the biggest loss in EV, but fit or fold is a loser as well.
c) 33% of the time we hit. We win the pot about 75% of the time, chop 15% and get stacked roughly 10%.

Any way I calc this, it's -EV. At least by calling, maybe we have some wiggle room to outplay him or get some implied odds by winning a c-bet on an A- or K-high flop when his pp misses. But do we even get EV from that?

Also, how big a preflop raise would you call with AK against this guy? If we call 0.80, do we call 1.00 - 1.20?

Bill Smith · #26 08-24-2007, 12:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

If I hadn't posted this mid-session, I so would've added this picture to the initial post.

members_only · #27 08-24-2007, 12:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
his 8xbb raise is semi alarming. thoughts on making it like $2 and folding if he shoves? (and c/f-ing most flops if he calls)?

[/ QUOTE ]

Orange, why do you think this is any better than calling and c/f-ing most flops?

monkeymaps · #28 08-24-2007, 12:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
a) fold
b)c-bet 2/3 pot give up if called
c) c bet 2/3 pot and prob stack off
d)see c

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is how we plan to play postflop (and I can't see how else we play), then 3-betting is a bad idea.

a) We almost never fold him out with our 3-bet. About 25% of the time, he pushes and we fold.
b) 67% of the time we miss. We c-bet and probably fold him out around 40% of the time (including other AK's and JJ on a Q-high flop) but lose our investment + c-bet the other 60%. This is the biggest loss in EV, but fit or fold is a loser as well.
c) 33% of the time we hit. We win the pot about 75% of the time, chop 15% and get stacked roughly 10%.

Any way I calc this, it's -EV. At least by calling, maybe we have some wiggle room to outplay him or get some implied odds by winning a c-bet on an A- or K-high flop when his pp misses. But do we even get EV from that?

Also, how big a preflop raise would you call with AK against this guy? If we call 0.80, do we call 1.00 - 1.20?

[/ QUOTE ]

a) there is no way we know that he pushes 25% of the time
b) if we 3 bet then cbet 2/3 the pot andtake it 40% of the time we are making money. ( only has to work 1/3 times to break even)
c) how does flat calling alow us to out play him after the flop? yeah our range is hidden but so is his

members_only · #29 08-24-2007, 12:57 PM

Yeah Bill, where are you getting those percentages from? If they're from an estimation of villain's range that you feel is sufficiently accurate, I think you've answered your own question...

Bill Smith · #30 08-24-2007, 01:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah Bill, where are you getting those percentages from? If they're from an estimation of villain's range that you feel is sufficiently accurate, I think you've answered your own question...

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right, it does make some assumptions that may not be accurate, so I'll back up. Can we safely assume a range of TT+ or JJ+ and AK to this guy, or do you think based on his sample size he might still come in lighter? (I should mention limper is running about 50/4/1 at this point, in case it matters to anyone)

If we assign a range of TT+/AK, AA/KK makes up about 20% of his range. Obviously, we don't know if he pushes QQ. That's the 25% I assigned to a 4-bet push. The rest is loosely based on the same. I'm not saying we might not call here, but I think a 3-bet is putting me in a bad spot, no?