Irisheyes' MLB Overnight Robot - Page 3

Fraubump · #21 06-30-2007, 02:17 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Josh,

agree with you. Kuo doesn't appear to suck as bad as his ERA would have us believe. Sample size too small to really say, but I felt it was worth a small gambool [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I think if their is an object lesson here it is that extrapolating based on small sample sizes is risky. My own analysis was that Young's stats have the appearance of "accelerating"(consistently improving over his 3 seasons) thus making overweighting his recent performance appropriate and making him a decent bet over an unknown quantity. Unfortunately I allowed myself to be swayed by you guys and decided to lay off the game instead of betting Young. But hey, it's just one game and maybe you just got unlucky for the 5th time in 6 games.

irisheyes · #22 06-30-2007, 02:37 AM

IMO, CY is "accelerating" because he moved from pitching in Rangers Ballpark to Petco. I could pitch in Petco and have a respectable ERA. FWIW, the Dodgers did have 14 hits to San Diego's 9, but Chris had a very nice outing and Kuo obviously did not.

It's a long season, and while 1 for 6 sucks, it's happened before and will happen again. If you believe there's value in Young next time he pitches, I suggest you go for it. I would wager there will be plenty of people here who will line up to bet the other side.

irisheyes · #23 06-30-2007, 11:33 PM

YTD 1-5 (-3.29u)

Only going to have time to do the NL this weekend. One play tomorrow:

MIL@CHC
MIL +102
Risk 1.5 units to win 1.53

Good luck.

irisheyes · #24 07-01-2007, 05:22 PM

Well, I'm sure everyone has been hitting 'refresh' every few minutes to make sure they haven't missed my latest pick. Great fade material here, it would seem.

7/1 Results 0-1

YTD 1-6 (-4.79u)

TomG · #25 07-01-2007, 06:35 PM

Rough start but don't give up too soon. Give yourself a chance to let the other side of variance hit you.

rjp · #26 07-01-2007, 09:34 PM

1-6 is nothing! Be happy you're not 1-15 or some nonsense like that (yes, it will happen).

irisheyes · #27 07-02-2007, 01:51 AM

Thanks Tom & rjp,

7/2 YTD 1-6 (-4.79u)

PHI@HOU
PHI -113
Risk 1.13u to win 1.00

Prepare to ship it. Good luck.

irisheyes · #28 07-02-2007, 01:58 AM

Wow, you guys are quick. I barely get this posted and already it's been bet down to -115. That will teach me to post before I bet!

Amended pick:

PHI@HOU
PHI -115
Risk 1.73 to win 1.50

With so many followers, how can I miss [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] ?

MrBlueNose · #29 07-02-2007, 02:34 AM

On it - thanks Irish [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Fraubump · #30 07-02-2007, 06:09 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Wow, you guys are quick. I barely get this posted and already it's been bet down to -115. That will teach me to post before I bet!

Amended pick:

PHI@HOU
PHI -115
Risk 1.73 to win 1.50

With so many followers, how can I miss [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] ?

[/ QUOTE ]

6am EST: line is down to -110 at WSX; (-112 at pinnacle). Agree that this a strong pick.