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#21
06-15-2007, 10:07 PM
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Re: Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I dont know of anyone capable of actually playing 40+ real table hours a week for an extended time at any poker game at all, period. [/ QUOTE ] There is at least one that posts here. [/ QUOTE ] regardless, people vastly overestimate their playing stamina. 
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#22
06-16-2007, 09:22 AM
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Re: Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games
"The same is a little true when you compare the 20/40 and 40/80 games at commerce."
On the whole the very good 40 players are much better than the very good 20 players. It's tougher to notice because it's a large sea. -Michael
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#23
06-16-2007, 12:43 PM
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Re: Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games
You are missing that once you've "worked" as a professional gambler, your engineering degree may become useless, and you may be unemployable. I know a number of people who went from petroleum engineering or another technical field to gambler. They never went back, because they can't go back, and they'll never have the income or opportunities they would have had again. The young engineer with low expenses/no family can set up retirement shelters, he's earning social security which can never be seized by lawsuits or IRS, plus he's getting paid vacations and health insurance. The young gambler with low expenses/no family has to provide all of those things out of his own pocket and in some circumstances may not be able to participate in social security at all. Even if you earned a little more playing cards than you did as an engineer, you don't earn enough to make up for the huge gap in benefits. Plus, it isn't just about getting the assets, it's about sheltering the assets. By middle age, you'll probably be involved in at least one lawsuit and at least one audit, and you come to appreciate the benefits of safety nets like social security and 401(K)s a lot more. That's what you're missing. You are about to step on a path that will almost certainly close doors to you forever.
Think about it from the employer's point of view? Would you hire someone who worked as a professional gambler? I wouldn't, and I've myself worked as a professional gambler. The odds are too high that the reason the person became a gambler is because they are not a team player or they have some other severe personal or social problem. Sure, there are exceptions. But not enough that the smart employer will often be willing to take a chance that you're the exception. I realize that if you decide to go back to engineering, you could always try to lie and say you were traveling or whatever. But, again, a guy barely out of college who just decides to not work and go traveling for a couple of years -- am I going to hire that guy or the guy who actually continued to work for more than 10 minutes to gain experience? It's a no brainer. If you were 35 instead of 25, maybe there was some chance you wouldn't be completely trashing your degree by taking a leave of absence for a year. But right now you're showing a classic pattern of a guy who can't stand prosperity. You're just jumping to something else before you're giving the first thing a fair chance. Also, $40 an hour is a pathetic earn for the self-employed. Again, it's because you're greatly underestimating the value of employer paid benefits such as health insurance. Oddly enough, if you were married and had a spouse to provide the health insurance benefits, 401(K), etcetera, $40 an hour would be OK. But it's terrible for a single person with no fallback.
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#24
06-16-2007, 01:47 PM
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Re: Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games
Well said, goodgrief. I concur.
I had a big tourney win last year (which I coincidentally won 2 weeks after quitting an engineering job), and I had planned to find new work within a couple months. With the "cushion" of the tourney win I felt like I could see what playing everyday would be like, though... after 5 months of the grind, I realized it was time to get back "a real job", since I wasn't even making 1BB/hr at the local 20 game. When I first started looking for work, the "what have you been doing the last 6 months" question came up, and I pretty much had to say I just took time off, that I hadn't done so in several years of working as an engineer... had that span of time been much longer, I probably would have had a harder time finding a good job. Having a real job again, and playing a few times a week instead, has been a much more comfortable existence. I might not get as much experience as fast, but I haven't gotten mired down in the grind, either: it's still fun to play pretty much every time I go, now.
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#25
06-16-2007, 01:56 PM
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Re: Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games
[ QUOTE ]
I'm a losing player at that game. The worse my opponents, the more I lose. I can play for 6 months at Commerce and not go on tilt as fast as I could in 6 hours at Bellagio 15. Last year my job was taking chips from the Wynn 15 table and depositing them at the Bellagio 15 table. I left Vegas after 5 days having pretty much broken even, winning big at Wynn and losing it all back at Bellagio. And the Bellagio games were far juicier. [/ QUOTE ] PJ, Could you elaborate? Did you find something especially troublesome at the B or was this plain bad luck. Please explain, as I'm planning to play this game next week.
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#26
06-16-2007, 03:34 PM
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Re: Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'm a losing player at that game. The worse my opponents, the more I lose. I can play for 6 months at Commerce and not go on tilt as fast as I could in 6 hours at Bellagio 15. Last year my job was taking chips from the Wynn 15 table and depositing them at the Bellagio 15 table. I left Vegas after 5 days having pretty much broken even, winning big at Wynn and losing it all back at Bellagio. And the Bellagio games were far juicier. [/ QUOTE ] PJ, Could you elaborate? Did you find something especially troublesome at the B or was this plain bad luck. Please explain, as I'm planning to play this game next week. [/ QUOTE ] If you have ever played advantage video poker, it is something like that. All of the profit is tied up in big, infrequent pays. You win in the long run, but only after you cash the big winners. When many people are in pots and going too far with hands you will win far less often, while the games have bigger long term profit potential. You will simply be less consistent. You will not open raise with AK, semi-bluff the missed flop, and rake in the pot. You will also seldom win with top pair. But you will have rare days when you hit lots of flushes, straights, and full houses. You will have very big wins on those rare days. But because so much of your win is tied up in long shot hands your variance will be much higher. PJ would have eventually come out ahead if he kept putting in hours at this game. Imagine a video poker machine with a progressive royal flush meter. The meter is at 5X the normal royal flush payout and you have a huge advantage. Well, you could go in and pump $100 a day through that machine for a long time. You won't realize a profit until you finally hit the royal.
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#27
06-16-2007, 04:01 PM
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Re: Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games
[ QUOTE ]
Well said, goodgrief. I concur. I had a big tourney win last year (which I coincidentally won 2 weeks after quitting an engineering job), and I had planned to find new work within a couple months. With the "cushion" of the tourney win I felt like I could see what playing everyday would be like, though... after 5 months of the grind, I realized it was time to get back "a real job", since I wasn't even making 1BB/hr at the local 20 game. When I first started looking for work, the "what have you been doing the last 6 months" question came up, and I pretty much had to say I just took time off, that I hadn't done so in several years of working as an engineer... had that span of time been much longer, I probably would have had a harder time finding a good job. Having a real job again, and playing a few times a week instead, has been a much more comfortable existence. I might not get as much experience as fast, but I haven't gotten mired down in the grind, either: it's still fun to play pretty much every time I go, now. [/ QUOTE ] Yes, I feel a little guilty about a young guy who joined my blackjack team. He was working as a dealer at a casino while he was in school, engineering. He began playing blackjack with us. After gradutation he went on some interviews, but never worked a single day. He became a full time professional gambler, which he has been for about the last 10 years. He has done pretty well but I'm sure his parents are horrified. At the time we recruited him I was wondering if we were about to ruin this guy's life.
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#28
06-16-2007, 05:24 PM
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Re: Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I dont know of anyone capable of actually playing 40+ real table hours a week for an extended time at any poker game at all, period. [/ QUOTE ] There is at least one that posts here. [/ QUOTE ] regardless, people vastly overestimate their playing stamina. [/ QUOTE ] 20 hours a week is all I can do, but I'm lazy.
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#30
06-16-2007, 08:42 PM
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Re: Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I dont know of anyone capable of actually playing 40+ real table hours a week for an extended time at any poker game at all, period. [/ QUOTE ] There is at least one that posts here. [/ QUOTE ] regardless, people vastly overestimate their playing stamina. [/ QUOTE ] 20 hours a week is all I can do, but I'm lazy. [/ QUOTE ] But you do it between 5 pm friday and 8 am monday so it looks to me like this is more of a brag post. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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