Correct river decision after villian check behind... - Page 3

ILOVEPOKER929 · #21 06-12-2007, 04:47 PM

"Wow down ILP. First off, you've zero evidence that I knew how to play poker to begin with!"

I assume most people on 2+2 know how to play poker. I just like giving people a hard time.

"And your first post did elude to this being a decision between b/f and c/c."

Let me make something clear. In general this spot will be a b/f or a c/c decision. There are plenty of exceptions to this general idea, but I dont think there is enough evidence to suggest an exception applies here.

"You seem to have sided quite definitively with the c/c side given the reference to this players aggression by the OP and the actions through the hand."

Yes I think it is very obvious that bet/folding this guy would be a terrible idea, yet bet/calling him should also feel terrible. Check/calling is the only viable line here IMO.

"May I ask why you think this villain checked the turn? 2 big diamonds? Didn't want to fire again on the come to possibly win it outright and maybe get a free show? Afraid to semi-bluff? Knows he's crushed? Yet you fear the bluff/raise on 5th?"

I have no idea why villain checked the turn. Most often it is becuz he has a draw like KJ or two diamonds. Will he have some other weak made hand? Possibly, but with no read Im convinced it is still best to assume he's on some kind of a draw the vast majority of the time and check/call the river to induce a bluff from some lesser hand and minimize our loss when he does indeed have two diamonds.

"Can you see how an up-and-comer like the peg can't figure this psychology?"

No one can figure out the psychology of this guys play cuz we dont have that strong of a read on him. In the end were still left guessing. Ive told you what I would do and why. Now its up to you to figure out what you think is the best line on the river.

nickg1532 · #22 06-12-2007, 04:48 PM

i think i c/c

ILOVEPOKER929 · #23 06-12-2007, 04:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If an aggro player 3-bet me in MP and 3-bet the flop and then checked the turn, i weight his range to something with a lot less outs than a diamond draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Im not just check/calling the river cuz dimaonds came in although that is a big reason. Check/calling the river also induces a bluff from KJ/J9s and it saves us money when villain has a flush. Im not convinced yet that this guy cant have KJ or J9s in this spot.

Nate tha\\\' Great · #24 06-12-2007, 04:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I have no idea why villain checked the turn. Most often it is becuz he has a draw like KJ or two diamonds. Will he have some other weak made hand? Possibly, but with no read Im convinced it is still best to assume he's on some kind of a draw the vast majority of the time and check/call the river to induce a bluff from some lesser hand and minimize our loss when he does indeed have two diamonds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, his hand feels like KJ (or J9s?) or a diamond draw to me most often, and it's correct to check against both of those (though for different reasons, of course). Something like KQ wouldn't shock me, but I think he'll usually talk himself into putting the value bet in for you if you check. Another possible hand is The Nuts (QQ, TT, QT), especially from an unknown opponent. So all of this is leaning very heavily toward a check and a call. The only hand that you really want to bet against is like AK, which (1) would have to have had put a lot of bad money in on the flop, (2) might not call if you bet; (3) might decide to turn its hand into a bluff if you check.

Nate tha\\\' Great · #25 06-12-2007, 05:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If an aggro player 3-bet me in MP and 3-bet the flop and then checked the turn, i weight his range to something with a lot less outs than a diamond draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Danza,

The thing is if he has diamonds, he will probably have the nut flush draw given the cards on the board. So even a player who likes to win every pot may check behind on the turn because he still has some showdown value against the other draws on this board (KJ, smaller diamond draws).

danzasmack · #26 06-12-2007, 05:13 PM

I see your point, IME an aggro player will fire the turn here with big diamonds, that's why I'm ok bet/calling this river.

It's really player dependent IMO. I also find myself putting in more bets vs. a more aggro player on the flop/turn FWIW.

As is i like betting the river. Unless he will value bet a hand like 99 for me. Then I might check.

99 is calling btw if it's at the river. Any pair is. IMO AJ calls here and AK does too.

I think this is just a case of how people play at you maybe. When I get 3-bet on this flop, it's a crappy free card play a lot with a hand that wants a showdown.

If this is CO/BU then I could see J9 in his range a lot more too. I just feel like a bare flush draw like A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] checks this turn but if he DID have J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] he would be the turn a lot more.

sethypooh21 · #27 06-12-2007, 05:29 PM

Interesting spot - I'm largely with ILP in that I think many more hands that we beat will bet then will call.

Unless this guy is a total tool (3/6 so ~60% possible...) he's betting Tx/KQ/KK/AA/AdKd/AdQd/AdJd on the turn. That said an "aggro" stars 3/6 player can easily show up with ~Ad6d here, and they might take villains line recognizing that they are A) almost certainly behind and B) have zero FE against hero.

This is actually a tougher flop spot than it looks at first notice, and I'm tempted to cap and keep leading against a player I read as overly aggro - that type of player might well not 3-bet Tx/QQ-AA on this flop, so the 3-bet tells me I'm more likely to be ahead.

danzasmack · #28 06-12-2007, 05:33 PM

yeah but capping the flop and leading the turn = us calling down because we put him on big diamonds ya hurd?

sethypooh21 · #29 06-12-2007, 05:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
yeah but capping the flop and leading the turn = us calling down because we put him on big diamonds ya hurd?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, and I'm okay with that against the villains who I would cap/lead (and FWIW, were I hero, this villain probably put himself on that list for me...)

Lately, I've also been experimenting with leading non-D turns here after calling the 3-bet, not sure how I like it.

Nate tha\\\' Great · #30 06-12-2007, 05:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I see your point, IME an aggro player will fire the turn here with big diamonds, that's why I'm ok bet/calling this river.

It's really player dependent IMO. I also find myself putting in more bets vs. a more aggro player on the flop/turn FWIW.

As is i like betting the river. Unless he will value bet a hand like 99 for me. Then I might check.

99 is calling btw if it's at the river. Any pair is. IMO AJ calls here and AK does too.

I think this is just a case of how people play at you maybe. When I get 3-bet on this flop, it's a crappy free card play a lot with a hand that wants a showdown.

If this is CO/BU then I could see J9 in his range a lot more too. I just feel like a bare flush draw like A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] checks this turn but if he DID have J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] he would be the turn a lot more.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like to start by assuming that my opponents play well. Against someone who plays well, the most likely hands given this flop/turn action are A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], followed by K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (though that's more likely to bet the turn IMO). And make no mistake, checking the turn is the right play with the AJ/AK [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] barring unusual opponent reads.