Foxwooods 20/40: JTs hand

[ErrantNight]

nice analysis.

[Entity]

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Nobody has mentioned the percentage of times he has AA-QQ and 3bets you.

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I am going to very rarely get 3-bet by an over pair in this game. Live games tend to play more passive on big streets.

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Two other things to consider (I like Hobb's idea here...):

1. Hobbs was playing like the Foxwoods 20/40 version of the DERB, and couldn't possibly miss his draw here... (the kid made like 7 racks or something...)

2. [Serious] The hands that Hobbs is likely to get three-bet by (the overpairs primarily) are hands that Hobbs has at least 13, and usually 15, outs against. Since he's hitting so much of the time here, getting three-bet is not nearly as bad as it would be if he had only a flush draw or something like that. Each bet that goes in is costing him like 1/6 of a BB, which is not a particularly steep price considering the size of the pot at this point. If we realize that Hobbs is risking somewhere between 1/6 and 1/3 of a BB on his raise here (depending on whether he get's three-bet), I think it's safe to say on average the "cost" of Hobb's raise is something like .2-.25 BB (remember, villain is passive). In a pot that has reached 5 BB already, Hobbs only needs to be right here like 1 in 20 times or even less to make this raise correct. Hobbs is likely to be up against AK at least some significant portion of the time here, and if villain folds even reasonably often I think it's clear we'll get a fold at least the necessary 5% of the time. Add in the metagame value and so on and I like this a lot.

3. I kind of prefer this line to the "raise-the-flop-for-a-free-card" line because that line is very unlikely to get us to defeat AK unimproved. A loose passive opponent like this will probably call the flop raise, and then if we take a free card we're going to have a very hard time getting our opponent to lay down anything, including AK unimproved, on the river. (Indeed, a river bluff at that point on our part would be very imprudent in what would be small pot). We're almost certainly getting three-bet on the flop by if villain has an overpair, and so most of the time raising the flop does nothing.

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The cost of being 3-bet by TT is .434BB. The cost of being 3-bet against the other overpairs (JJ-AA) is about -.7BB.

What this comes down to, for the most part, is a question of how often BB leads a non AhKh-based AK into hobbs again on the turn. We're describing him as passive, relatively unable to 3-bet one pair on the turn, but at the same time, relatively likely to continue leading the turn with AKo. There isn't a huge discrepancy here but there is one worth considering.

Since we think we're very unlikely to be 3-bet on the turn, our raise needs to have the effect of villain folding about 16% of the time here for a raise to be good. So if the ratios seem to be pointing to the fact that villain would lead with an unhearted AK intending to fold to a raise frequently (only has to be about 25% of the time)), then I think I like it.

[brettbrettr]

This might be a leak of mine, but somthing that folks seem to be ignoring is the amount of time your turn raise gets called, you miss, and you bluff the river and get called. I'm not sure you could quantify it, but seems possible, no?

[Hobbs.]

I was thinking about doing an EV calculation for the turn raise in class today so I'll try to step through things below. I don't do these that often so feel free to correct me if things are wrong.

Opponents Range:

AK: 16 combos
AA-TT: 27 combos

In general our EV calculation will be the following:

EV = Equity*(bets invested + implied odds) - (1-Equity)*(bets invested) + Other

In this current example the other term will be represented by our fold equity. For the case with no fold equity we can see that our EV is negative.

EV(no FE) = 15/46*(+3BB) - (1-15/46)*(2BB) = -0.37 BB

No lets try and quantify FE.

Assume FE = F(x,y)*15/43*(6BB)

F(x,y) represents a function that will be dependent on both the percentage of times villian bets AK unimproved on the turn as well as the percentage of times he folds to our raise. For this problem let F(x,y) = x*y (with x equal to percentage villian leads with AK and y equal to percentage of times he folds AK). the ratio 15/43 represents the number of combos that he will potentially fold to a turn raise (it is 15 and not 16 because he will not fold AhKh). The 6BB represents the number of bets we stand to win the times we get our villian to fold the best hand.

Lets now look at the neutral EV case:

0 = x*y*(15/43)*(6BB) - 0.37BB

Limiting Cases:
1) villian bets AK on the turn 100% of the time:
This implies he needs to fold to our raise
y = 18% of the time.

2) villian will fold to our raise with AK 100% of the time
obviosly he then needs to only bet the turn 18% of the time.

Of course villian is not going to do either of these things 100% of the time, but Entity's estimate of villian folding AK to our raise around 25% of the time probably reflects a realistic situation.

[Hobbs.]

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This might be a leak of mine, but somthing that folks seem to be ignoring is the amount of time your turn raise gets called, you miss, and you bluff the river and get called. I'm not sure you could quantify it, but seems possible, no?

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Sorry for the bump. I came across this thread today and realized this went unanswered.

My plan in this hand was to not bet the river UIed because I didn't think, even in a pot that big, I would have a profitable bluff because his calling basically meant he had an overpair that he wanted to SD.

Results of the hand: dude called my turn raise, river bricked, it went check check and he showed QQ and scooped.

[JJH3984]

This is old, but I just want to say that I love this turn raise. My standard line is call/call/ fold unimproved, but I try to mix it up like this from time to time.

[Fat Nicky]

good bump, for the simple fact that this thread had some good discussion.

As for betting the river, I think when the villain calls the turn raise, he's not prob not gonna fold this river unless he has exactly A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

[The DaveR]

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I think this hand is much easier to play if you raise the flop.

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I think raising this flop is bad as I will get 3-bet on this street by overpairs a lot of the time. Also AK is not going to fold to a flop raise and thus I'm commited to putting a turn bet rather than taking a free card (this is of course the times I am not 3-bet).

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This is so intuitive but at the same time giving away so much.

[Hobbs.]

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I think this hand is much easier to play if you raise the flop.

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I think raising this flop is bad as I will get 3-bet on this street by overpairs a lot of the time. Also AK is not going to fold to a flop raise and thus I'm commited to putting a turn bet rather than taking a free card (this is of course the times I am not 3-bet).

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This is so intuitive but at the same time giving away so much.

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Are you in favor of a flop raise?

[JJH3984]

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I think this hand is much easier to play if you raise the flop.

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I think raising this flop is bad as I will get 3-bet on this street by overpairs a lot of the time. Also AK is not going to fold to a flop raise and thus I'm commited to putting a turn bet rather than taking a free card (this is of course the times I am not 3-bet).

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This is so intuitive but at the same time giving away so much.

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