Home run? - Page 3

shaundeeb · #21 05-24-2007, 04:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You need more then 20% equity for this to be profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

I had 25 and they had monsters.

the alex · #22 05-24-2007, 05:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Once the BB shoves, you don't have reason to believe MP2 is folding. Right before the add-on, that's a serious 3-bet whether he knows you or not. By calling the 1980, you effectively calling 3k, by this reasoning to win a little under 8k? I don't like it, personally.

[/ QUOTE ]

If your equity is 25%, what am I missing here?

WarDekar · #23 05-24-2007, 05:12 PM

His point was they had monsters, if any of the side pots he was playing for wasn't against a monster his equity was higher, plus the 25% he quoted doesn't even tell us what his equity was on the side-pots.

Even if this particular instance was slightly -cEV, doesn't meant the play wasn't, and as I said earlier the difference in that stack he'll have is quite big if he wins this hand.

Oh and after you raised PF you kinda have to go ahead and call everything else because this is exactly the situation you want with SCs - risking a smaller portion of your stack up against multiple opponents to get a huge stack. This is the ideal situation if you're raising 56s to begin with IMO.

the alex · #24 05-24-2007, 05:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
His point was they had monsters, if any of the side pots he was playing for wasn't against a monster his equity was higher, plus the 25% he quoted doesn't even tell us what his equity was on the side-pots.

Even if this particular instance was slightly -cEV, doesn't meant the play wasn't, and as I said earlier the difference in that stack he'll have is quite big if he wins this hand.

Oh and after you raised PF you kinda have to go ahead and call everything else because this is exactly the situation you want with SCs - risking a smaller portion of your stack up against multiple opponents to get a huge stack. This is the ideal situation if you're raising 56s to begin with IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see. I don't want Deebers at my table with 16-18k after the break, let alone 18k.

Considering the hands he'd have to hit to rake it in, are the side pots much of an issue?

I'm not being argumentative. Just asking. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

shaundeeb · #25 05-24-2007, 05:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Once the BB shoves, you don't have reason to believe MP2 is folding. Right before the add-on, that's a serious 3-bet whether he knows you or not. By calling the 1980, you effectively calling 3k, by this reasoning to win a little under 8k? I don't like it, personally.

[/ QUOTE ]

If your equity is 25%, what am I missing here?

[/ QUOTE ]

pot was like 10k you missing a few stacks.

the alex · #26 05-24-2007, 05:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises to t300, MP2 raises to t800, MP3 raises to t900, CO calls t900, 2 folds, BB raises to t2280, Hero calls t1980, MP2 raises to t3245, CO folds, Hero calls t965.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero's open raise- 300
MP2 with shove expectation- 3245
BB- 2280
MP3- 900
CO's dead money- 900

That's 7625 with the 2445 we expect from MP2 and calling the 1980 with that same expectation is effectively calling 2945, no? Are you expecting the CO to cold-call the 900 after a raise/re-raise and call off his stack?

Pudge714 · #27 05-24-2007, 05:38 PM

This is math problem just do it. Also Hail Mary, would be better than Home run as a title.

Eagles · #28 05-24-2007, 05:41 PM

Shaun,
Assuming you have no fe what equity do you need to call.

shaundeeb · #29 05-24-2007, 06:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises to t300, MP2 raises to t800, MP3 raises to t900, CO calls t900, 2 folds, BB raises to t2280, Hero calls t1980, MP2 raises to t3245, CO folds, Hero calls t965.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero's open raise- 300
MP2 with shove expectation- 3245
BB- 2280
MP3- 900
CO's dead money- 900

That's 7625 with the 2445 we expect from MP2 and calling the 1980 with that same expectation is effectively calling 2945, no? Are you expecting the CO to cold-call the 900 after a raise/re-raise and call off his stack?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was at the time.

wpr101 · #30 05-25-2007, 01:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand why we are trying to get in with our money behind.

I was curious so I ran the odds on if we are against 4 other ppl in the hand and they have JJ/QQ/KK/AA precisely. We have about 20% chance to win. AA has about a 38% chance to win.

[/ QUOTE ]

ding someone did some math and it's starting to make more sense the more cards they share the more our EV goes up. This hand is very math heavy I did it quickly at the table and came out roughtly ahead even in some worse case senarios i.e AKhh is out there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I still don't like this hand at all though. Yes there will be some rare times where we are up against AK, AK, and KQ, but a lot of times we will not be so fortunate.