Our PS winrates - Page 3

danzasmack · #21 04-10-2007, 06:12 PM

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Also, I haven't had a losing session since that thread, so you should all post a whinging thread like I did and you'll be golden.

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Done, and hopefully done...

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i posted in this thread and got 4bet by a gutshot on the turn. this is my post to unjinx holla.

marching_on_together · #22 04-10-2007, 10:35 PM

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what is long?

people say: play 10k hands than post you stats her for review

others say: play 100k to eliminate swings...

I will post some datamined charts and i would really like to discuss:
"if you can beat the game"

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You need 30,000 hands at a level before knowing your general winrate, and 100,000 hands at a level before knowing your specific winrate.

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Such a crock.

Assume 18BB/100 standard deviation, which I understand is normal if you work it out right. Then over a 100,000 hand sample your standard error is
18/sqrt(1000) = 0.57

so with 95% confidence you know your winrate to within plus/minus 1.14BB/100

That is not particularly specific.

I've said this before and I will say it again. You will never, never know your winrate. Just spend the money.

Guy.

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good post 30K, 60K, 100K none of these i would consider long term. When you run good or bad it's very hard to get an idea over what should be considered running average.

sweetjazz · #23 04-10-2007, 11:05 PM

Just curious, but do you all think the fact that the games are tough and consequently you will have pretty big downswings due to bad runs of cards sometimes affects your judgment and leads to tilt or sloppy play?

I just had an ~250 BB downswing at 10/20 in the course of two sessions and I'm pretty sure at least 50 BB was due to sloppy play. Of course, I usually make some bad mistakes even when running good and you always make more mistakes when running bad because your lack of quality hands puts you to more tough calldown-vs-fold situations. But, I ended up doing really stupid stuff because I was frustrated that I couldn't make a hand and whenever I did someone else flopped better or hit a miracle draw. I "know" better, but I let my frustration affect my play.

It's very humbling to go from running well and feeling like you know what you are doing to running bad and feeling like you don't know how to beat this game. I think the best players can generally see past all that at the table and manage to make good decisions on a fairly consistent basis. I feel like I usually am able to do this, but I realize that I still struggle immensely with this when I run really bad over a short stretch.

BTW, I haven't played the 5/10 since January or early February, but at that time I thought the game was beatable. Still, winning 1.5 BB/100 over a long sample given the amount of rake and the fact that it's no longer the case that there are always 8+ good tables going 24/7 seems like it is a pretty non-trivial task.

binions · #24 04-10-2007, 11:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
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what is long?

people say: play 10k hands than post you stats her for review

others say: play 100k to eliminate swings...

I will post some datamined charts and i would really like to discuss:
"if you can beat the game"

[/ QUOTE ]

You need 30,000 hands at a level before knowing your general winrate, and 100,000 hands at a level before knowing your specific winrate.

[/ QUOTE ]

Such a crock.

Assume 18BB/100 standard deviation, which I understand is normal if you work it out right. Then over a 100,000 hand sample your standard error is
18/sqrt(1000) = 0.57

so with 95% confidence you know your winrate to within plus/minus 1.14BB/100

That is not particularly specific.

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Guess it depends on what you mean by specific.

BTW - if your winrate is 3BB/100 after 100,000 hands, your equation means that your true winrate is 2.43BB to 3.57BB. (Not 1.86BB to 4.14BB).

To me, that's pretty specific.

Guy McSucker · #25 04-12-2007, 05:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
what is long?

people say: play 10k hands than post you stats her for review

others say: play 100k to eliminate swings...

I will post some datamined charts and i would really like to discuss:
"if you can beat the game"

[/ QUOTE ]

You need 30,000 hands at a level before knowing your general winrate, and 100,000 hands at a level before knowing your specific winrate.

[/ QUOTE ]

Such a crock.

Assume 18BB/100 standard deviation, which I understand is normal if you work it out right. Then over a 100,000 hand sample your standard error is
18/sqrt(1000) = 0.57

so with 95% confidence you know your winrate to within plus/minus 1.14BB/100

That is not particularly specific.

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Guess it depends on what you mean by specific.

BTW - if your winrate is 3BB/100 after 100,000 hands, your equation means that your true winrate is 2.43BB to 3.57BB. (Not 1.86BB to 4.14BB).

To me, that's pretty specific.

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That would be a one standard deviation confidence interval, i.e. about 70% confidence. For 95% confidence it's 1.86 to 4.14, i.e. two SDs either way. And remember that 5% is not exactly a small chance we're wrong, so let's go for three SDs, 99.7% confidence: 1.29 to 4.71BB/100

Is that specific?

And given that most people are looking at 1.5BB/100 winrates max, we're talking about an interval of -0.21 to 3.21BB/100 after 100,000 hands. Not specific at all in my opinion.

Guy.

sethypooh21 · #26 04-12-2007, 06:08 PM

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Just curious, but do you all think the fact that the games are tough and consequently you will have pretty big downswings due to bad runs of cards sometimes affects your judgment and leads to tilt or sloppy play?

[/ QUOTE ]Absolutely - it's a hard game when 4 of every 5 times when you 3-bet AK from the Button vs. LP BB and LagDonk UTG the flop is Jxx.

-100BB or so last night, and probably the last 40 or so was me just trying to bull my way through a run of bad cards/missed flops. Bad Idea Jeans. I might try SNG's for awhile, as I might just need the defined increments of each tournament.

milesdyson · #27 04-12-2007, 09:18 PM

Just felt like posting this hand in a somewhat obscure location.

PokerStars 5/10 Hold'em (6 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 1 fold, CO 3-bets, 3 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.40 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero raises, CO 3-bets, Hero caps, CO calls.

Turn: (7.70 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, CO calls.

River: (13.70 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls.

Final Pot: 15.70 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has Kc Ks (two pair, kings and threes).
CO has Js Kh (two pair, jacks and threes).
Outcome: Hero wins 15.70 BB.

sethypooh21 · #28 04-12-2007, 09:21 PM

Miles, from what I gather about your image, this hand can't be that remarkable, can it?

jba · #29 04-12-2007, 09:23 PM

miles you are the luckiest dude i've ever seen

i'm changing my PS sn to SKLANSKYRULZAMIRITE

milesdyson · #30 04-12-2007, 09:36 PM

I just don't get my "image." I am so ABC it hurts. Ask chezlaw.

PokerStars 5/10 Hold'em (4 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 1 fold, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, Hero calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB calls.

River: (10.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

Final Pot: 12.50 BB

Results in white below: 
SB has Th Ad (one pair, sevens).
Hero has 7s 8s (three of a kind, sevens).
Outcome: Hero wins 12.50 BB. 

PokerStars 5/10 Hold'em (5 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, UTG calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, UTG calls.

River: (8.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG raises, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 12.50 BB

Results in white below: 
UTG has Kd 8d (high card, king).
Hero has Ks Kc (one pair, kings).
Outcome: Hero wins 12.50 BB. 

PokerStars 5/10 Hold'em (6 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises, CO calls, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls.

Flop: (8.40 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, CO calls, Button calls, BB folds.

Turn: (5.70 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, CO calls, Button calls.

River: (8.70 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, CO raises, Button folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 12.70 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has Ac Kc (one pair, aces).
CO has 4d Ad (one pair, aces).
Outcome: Hero wins 12.70 BB. 

PokerStars 5/10 Hold'em (6 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
3 folds, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, Button calls.

Flop: (7 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button calls.

River: (6.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero raises, Button calls.

Final Pot: 10.50 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has Ah Ks (one pair, kings).
Button has 3s 3c (one pair, threes).
Outcome: Hero wins 10.50 BB. 

PokerStars 5/10 Hold'em (6 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Preflop: Hero is SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP calls, 1 fold, Button calls, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, BB folds, MP calls, Button folds.

Turn: (3 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP calls.

River: (5 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP raises, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 9 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has Th Jc (two pair, jacks and tens).
MP has Ad 3s (high card, ace).
Outcome: Hero wins 9 BB. 

And one of those nearly perfect storm hands (has nothing to do with my image really - nevermind, he did give way way too much action):

PokerStars 5/10 Hold'em (6 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, Button calls, 1 fold, BB raises, UTG calls, Hero calls, Button calls.

Flop: (8.40 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, UTG calls, Hero raises, Button folds, BB 3-bets, UTG calls, Hero caps, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (10.20 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, UTG calls, Hero raises, BB calls, UTG calls.

River: (16.20 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, UTG folds, Hero raises, BB calls.

Final Pot: 20.20 BB

Results in white below: 
BB has As Kd (straight, ace high).
Hero has 9s Qs (straight flush, king high).
Outcome: Hero wins 20.20 BB.