how long before PS UB and FT drop?

[MiltonFriedman]

Good call, perhaps

[Dennisa]

[ QUOTE ]
What's the point in speculating?

[/ QUOTE ]

The point is, I would not keep any balance at a pokersite that you could not live without for a year plus. When the bill was signed Oct 13, we all felt we would have plenty of time for an orderly return of funds ala Party Poker. I'm not so sure this will be the same when any of the 4 go down post the 270 day period.

[BluffTHIS!]

Bill,

Regarding the usefullness of speculation, note again that we are talking about a *short* time period before the regs come out and then a couple of months afterward to see their immediate effect. Since that time frame is in months, there really isn't much point in speculating for the sake of making plans, except for the caveat I gave, which is a player who makes his living online and also has no savings. And even then the plan he should make isn't to ignore the shortcomings of the PPA, but to start looking for a job.

As to FT or other sites that currently allow US players to play on their sites, their email you quote really doesn't necessarily indicate a change in their views. They simply are prudently taking steps to reduce the amount of legal risk they have chosen to take on if they can. However that risk doesn't exist in a vacuum. It exists along with profit/reward and ratio of same to risk determines their actions. Just as any business constantly tries to reduce overhead and non-fixed costs, those sites will try to reduce risk, in this case legal risk.

And I want to address this overall conversation here between those like yourself who are glass empty guys, and those of us who are glass half-full guys. We have both made our points and there is no reason to belabour it. The position I set out above of waiting 6 months before making long term plans is reasonable with the noted caveat. You disagree, but also have a further agenda here, which was evidenced by one of your blog entries where you state the glass half-full players were the biggest threat to online poker. Let's examine that.

Your contention might be correct if we were talking about a longer time frame. As in if we had foreknowlege a couple years ago that the IUGEA was like to be passed in two years, thus necessitating the direst predictions in order to mobilize effective action. But in fact we are post-IUGEA and pre-regs, and again dealing with a short time period. There is a long term need for us to act, but not a pressing short term need as a carve-out is a long shot in any such time frame, and more likely to be achieved in the long run as even failed short term efforts increase long term awareness of our cause.

Thus I believe that you and others have mistakenly focused on this short time frame of 6 months instead of the longer one, and with the result that many of you are willing to sweep any legitimate concerns about the PPA under the rug and also believe it necessary to fan the fires of hysteria and panic in order to get others to also ignore both the PPA's shortcomings and the unlikelihood of any carve-out being achieved in the short run, so as to bolster the PPA.

But in so doing you also allow yourselves to become the pawns of those companies, both publicly held poker sites and funding concerns, and also sports betting sites, who have the most to lose in a glass half-full scenario where the regs come and go and mostly aren't effective and we are still left with a hand full of sites doing business with US players in a hostile legal environment. Party Poker in particular is very bitter about the private sites remaining in the market and wishes nothing other than to have them in the same situation as themselves, instead of what we have now which is those private sites free-rolling on Party.

So you and lawmangaboontroll can keep beating the drums of panic and hysteria all you want, and if your direst predictions come true then you can proudly thump your chests and say "Aha! We told you so!" in six months. However for myself and others, we will take the longer view and wait till that short run has ended, and focus on making sure that we have the best organization possible to lead our cause for the long run. We would in fact like that to be the PPA, but only if they are willing to address our legitimate concerns. Six months is nothing in the long term to insure it is *our* interests that are being *effectively* advanced, and not those of companies with divergent interests.

[KotOD]

[ QUOTE ]
and even some particular banks are not wanting to honor checks from certain sites/companies.

[/ QUOTE ]


Link please.

[BluffTHIS!]

See the zoo (internet gambling forum) for such bank issues. There are a couple threads going on about same.

[KotOD]

[ QUOTE ]
Bill,

and if your direst predictions come true then you can proudly thump your chests and say "Aha! We told you so!" in six months.

[/ QUOTE ]

You forgot the part about beating something else because the hysteria has increased his blog traffic.

[KotOD]

[ QUOTE ]
See the zoo (internet gambling forum) for such bank issues. There are a couple threads going on about same.

[/ QUOTE ]

And as of yet, there hasn't been a single check rejected. People keep spouting that nonsense about banks not honoring checks because they don't understand how banking works.

Kids: Ask your mom and dad how paper checks work. And stop posting that crap.

[Mjollnir]

KotOD, please explain your last post.

I deposited a check from River Belle that my bank did not honor. I deposited and then had the deposit reversed a week later. I called RB's customer service and was informed that USA banks are not accepting their checks.

I am not the only one that has reported this.

[satya]

Well, I guess you can fight the PPA (the only group I know of doing anything - whether we agree with tactics or not) at every turn and take this wait and see attitude.

What happens in August if there aren't any rooms left open to US players?

It's hard enough to get people to take action now - even if it's dialing a phone or pushing send on a prefab online letter to Congress. Do you really think people will be motivated to do anything once there's nothing left to fight for?

If there are no rooms to play at - there will be no point (in the minds of most) to taking any kind of action. By then UIGEA will be a done deal. Goodbye online poker. Forever.

Aside from perhaps a handful of online pros (e.g. those with no political clout whatsoever), the only potential "players" left with an interest in a carveout or whatever else, will be the rooms and CP etc - those you feel the PPA is working too hard for now. But by then the market will have been obliterated and even they may determine fighting is would be -ROI. No way to know for sure. I guess we should just wait and see.

[olivert]

The message that governments in the US, France, The Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Turkey, Russia, Israel, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Vietnam, and even parts of Canada (notably Ontario Province) are sending is very clear:

Either the government owns the online poker room or the government issues an explicit license to an online poker room to operate in a country/territory, or the government will do whatever it takes to block off the flow of cash to that offshore online poker room in order to protect government-owned or government-licensed gaming monopolies.

The governments around the world will each have a HEAVY hand on determining who is allowed to run legal online poker rooms in each country/territory.

Remember that in most countries, being able to gamble legally is a PRIVILEGE, not a right. The government can decide who gets to gamble, on what a person can gamble, with whom a person can gamble, how much a person can gamble, and how much "juice" the government will extract from gamblers.

Get used to this trend.

Even PartyGaming, the biggest bully on the block, has figured out that governments hold ALL the "aces" when it comes to explicit licensing.