Matusow's O8 article

[niss]

Buzz,

A couple of comments arising from yours.

1. You seem to attribute (at least somewhat) Mike's success in this hand to his read that his opponents were "prudent" players who presumably would fold the unfriendly flop he expected. If his opponents were all prudent, however, then he should have considered that, given the number of players raising and then calling 3 bets cold thereafter, he would not be the only one coming along for the ride with high cards, and any reasonably playable high hand probably crushes him.

I am loathe to give Mike any credit for how he played this hand other than for the fact that he saw a bunch of players before him, deduced that low cards were out, and played a high hand, which is not a novel idea. But he played a bad high hand, and got lucky (1) that he was the only high hand out there and (2) that he didn't merely have a semi-fit on the flop, he flopped the nuts.

In fact, I have to question whether his deduction is even correct. For with that many players calling pre-flop raises, the more correct assumption may be that the deck is stacked with *middle* cards and not *high* cards. And a flop of 6-7-8, 6-8-x, 7-8-x, any flop of paired middle cards, and the like, don't seem to help him at all and would seem to risk having at least one caller who has a decent pocket pair with a low draw.

In addition, if he assumes the Aces are out, then he's got *no* chance to make the nut straight. Meanwhile, a very reasonable range of hands may have the advantage, or at least +EV to continue to play, on what will look to him like a friendly flop. Even on the flop of 8-10-J, he's not out of the woods, as a hand like A-2-Q-K certainly has enough equity to keep playing, as may a hand like A-2-3-Q or A-2-4-K, and that's putting back-door flush draws aside. That's another critical flaw in Mike's thinking, in my opinion.

2. Your limiting the statement "we don't usually look at possible flops from the perspective of how poorly they will fit our opponent's hands" to limit O8 is extremely appropriate. Because so many more hands at PLO8 are heads up or 3-handed, a player who does not consider in most cases how the flop hit his/her opponents, and tailor his/her play appropriately, is missing an important skill set.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
If his opponents were all prudent, however, then he should have considered that, given the number of players raising and then calling 3 bets cold thereafter, he would not be the only one coming along for the ride with high cards, and any reasonably playable high hand probably crushes him.

[/ QUOTE ]Niss - Good point. You're right.

[ QUOTE ]
I am loathe to give Mike any credit for how he played this hand other than for the fact that he saw a bunch of players before him, deduced that low cards were out, and played a high hand, which is not a novel idea.

[/ QUOTE ]I agree the idea is not novel - and it would be usually incorrect in my own games.

[ QUOTE ]
But he played a bad high hand, and got lucky (1) that he was the only high hand out there and (2) that he didn't merely have a semi-fit on the flop, he flopped the nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]Agreed.

[ QUOTE ]
In fact, I have to question whether his deduction is even correct. For with that many players calling pre-flop raises, the more correct assumption may be that the deck is stacked with *middle* cards and not *high* cards. And a flop of 6-7-8, 6-8-x, 7-8-x, any flop of paired middle cards, and the like, don't seem to help him at all and would seem to risk having at least one caller who has a decent pocket pair with a low draw.

[/ QUOTE ]Good point.

[ QUOTE ]
In addition, if he assumes the Aces are out, then he's got *no* chance to make the nut straight.

[/ QUOTE ]another good point.

[ QUOTE ]
Meanwhile, a very reasonable range of hands may have the advantage, or at least +EV to continue to play, on what will look to him like a friendly flop.

[/ QUOTE ]If he has read his opponents correctly, something I suspect he's good at, then maybe the probability is low of an opponent having a hand falling within that range.

[ QUOTE ]
....and that's putting back-door flush draws aside. That's another critical flaw in Mike's thinking, in my opinion.

[/ QUOTE ]Agreed.

[ QUOTE ]
Your limiting the statement "we don't usually look at possible flops from the perspective of how poorly they will fit our opponent's hands" to limit O8 is extremely appropriate. Because so many more hands at PLO8 are heads up or 3-handed, a player who does not consider in most cases how the flop hit his/her opponents, and tailor his/her play appropriately, is missing an important skill set.

[/ QUOTE ]Yes. I can't speak for pot limit Omaha-8, but that makes a lot of sense to me.

All the same, I think I'll try thinking more about how the cards in my own hand affect the possibility of various flops, and what the impact of that will be on various opponents.

Buzz

[chaos]

A problem with Mike's analysis is that he doesn't worry about flushes and makes no mention of suits as Buzz points out.

Those players with good hands containing an Ace are likely to be suited. I think the most common winning high hand is a flush. If all of Mike's opponents have suited hands that cover all four suits and Mike is either unsuited or drawing dead to his flush, then I think he will be an underdog to win high.

- chaos