AA 230bb+ deep

[Jay Riall]

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check flop.

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Wow, NO.

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Agreed. Easy bet and call a shove.

[jk3a]

if this is a set, well played by villian, i call

[AljdrA]

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hello everybody

i just registered because of this thread.
i am not a very good player ($.5/$1 NL, beating it slightly) - but i disagree with the general opinion here that a call is the right move.

i mean villains stats tell us something about his betting and raising, but it doesn't tell us that he is an idiot, right? i would say his range preflop includes ANY pocket pair. when ejay reraised him preflop villain practically knew he was up against AA, KK, QQ or the like. considering the big stacks and that he will hit a set about 1 in 8 times he can easily call preflop and go all-in if he hits his set. because he knows he will be called most of the time by opponents who think like you (who say call is the right move).

of course he could have KK or AA (why doesn't anybody consider AA?). but i seriously doubt he would go all-in with QQ or a lower PP that didnt make a set.

if you think i'm all wrong please explain why.

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[Bill Smith]

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i mean villains stats tell us something about his betting and raising, but it doesn't tell us that he is an idiot, right? i would say his range preflop includes ANY pocket pair. when ejay reraised him preflop villain practically knew he was up against AA, KK, QQ or the like. considering the big stacks and that he will hit a set about 1 in 8 times he can easily call preflop and go all-in if he hits his set. because he knows he will be called most of the time by opponents who think like you (who say call is the right move).

of course he could have KK or AA (why doesn't anybody consider AA?). but i seriously doubt he would go all-in with QQ or a lower PP that didnt make a set.

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First of all, welcome to the forum. Your points are mostly correct, but that doesn't necessarily turn this into a fold.

I guess going point-by-point, we're ignoring AA mostly because there's only 1 combo left of AA in the deck - we're holding the other 2 aces. It also results in a push.

There are 6 combos of KK, 6 combos of QQ, and only 9 combos of 99, 55, and 44 combined. So, even if we assume he'll only push with AA-QQ and a set, we still have a call.

I do believe that our villian will push QQ here, and possibly JJ/TT as well. If he is thinking and knows we are thinking, we could have very easily 3-bet with AK (or worse if he's been picking on us) and he might be able to push us off of KK-JJ, or even AA.

Lastly, the fact that villian is in position makes it less likely that he would push a set here. He could easily call and expect us to bet again with a big hand. If he were first to act, a c/r all-in would probably be more correct with a set as it looks like he's protecting something, and keeps Hero from checking the turn through to keep the pot small.

[dd323]

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potting a dry flop in a reraised pot is a huge leak by the way

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I agree with this with 100bb, but being this deep, I actually prefer a bigger flop bet like this to decreased reverse implied and to make it easier to get stacks in by the river.

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This is faulty thinking, if stacks this deep get in over 3 streets of betting AA unimproved is probably behind.

[Speedlimits]

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check flop.

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Wow, NO.

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Would you be more likely to check at 100BB's deep and more likely to bet at 200BB's+ deep?

I think checking here with 100BB's is good.

[Freelancer]

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check flop.

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Wow, NO.

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Would you be more likely to check at 100BB's deep and more likely to bet at 200BB's+ deep?

I think checking here with 100BB's is good.

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I'd be more inclined to check at 200bb's+ than at 100 bb's.

If you are that deep pot control starts to become a serious business, checking the flop is a good start in archieving this. Especially considering that villain is probably drawing to 2 outs...

At 100 bbs I just want to get the money in with a 3-bet pot.


To OP; I'd probably reluctantly call. But my image is a usually totally nutty (whey I like 3-betting *shrugs*) so I expect QQ+ to always push and TT/JJ occasionally. If you are very nitty with your 3-bets or in general tight it might shift to a fold but a really tough one.
I also bet less on this flop and might check it this deep...

[Speedlimits]

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check flop.

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Wow, NO.

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Would you be more likely to check at 100BB's deep and more likely to bet at 200BB's+ deep?

I think checking here with 100BB's is good.

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I'd be more inclined to check at 200bb's+ than at 100 bb's.

If you are that deep pot control starts to become a serious business, checking the flop is a good start in archieving this. Especially considering that villain is probably drawing to 2 outs...

At 100 bbs I just want to get the money in with a 3-bet pot.


To OP; I'd probably reluctantly call. But my image is a usually totally nutty (whey I like 3-betting *shrugs*) so I expect QQ+ to always push and TT/JJ occasionally. If you are very nitty with your 3-bets or in general tight it might shift to a fold but a really tough one.
I also bet less on this flop and might check it this deep...

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Ok that makes sense. If you had QQ here it is a definite flop check right?

[orange]

i would call in this spot. i dont think villan ever plays a set like this. i think you'll see pairs almost always.

[wtf5]

Ehm checking this flop is pretty horrible...Villain doesn't have Ks or Qs unless hes really bad because they re-raise preflop.

Dont think he has a set here unless hes really bad because who check raises 150BBs in with a set? Probably has Js, 10s or 6,7 but if he has a set then unlucky.