How much luck is involved in hu nlc?

[Sarahanj]

How much luck is involved in hu nlc?

[Al_Money]

65.9%

[cwar]

0% you just suck.

[holdme]

nlc?

[jay_shark]

no limit cumming

[holdme]

oh nvm. (seriously)

OP, rephrase your q into something tangible.

[pocketjesuits]

The answer depends on the format of the match. If we are talking infinitely deep stacks for an infinite number of hands, obviously there is no luck involved and the best player will always win. If we're talking about stacks of 10BB, then obviously it is almost entirely luck.

[Sarahanj]

My question was obviously not very well written. I have a limited experience of hu nlc (less than 48 hours total). In some games ive been crushing my opponents and in other they have been crushing me. The thing is, what conclusions can i make after this? How big is the variance? The key hands are often draws that makes straights and so on. I´ve been playing nl poker for years and hu tourneys som i am not totally green.

[ORTOM]

[ QUOTE ]
How much luck is involved in hu nlc?

[/ QUOTE ]

Personally, I think the concept behind this question is important, so I'm going to give you a serious reply.

I believe a better way of approaching this question is to ask what probability distribution describes the how many games you win per n matches. (Sorry if you don't know enough prob and stat to understand this reply. check out any intro text if you need a reference). It turns out for reasons I am too lazy to describe that it is binomial(n,p), where p is your winning percentage and n is the number of games you play. On average, you will win n*p games. Your variance will be n*p*(1-p). http://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~stark/...ml/BinHist.htm is a good place to get a feel for what the distirbution looks like.

p will vary depending on who your opponent is and if you are on tilt. (duh). Anyway, hope this helps.

[Sarahanj]

Ty for the good answers. My follow up question must be: If you are a good hu player, will you lose a lot of games anyway? Is it normal to lose 3 buy ins to an opponent that are slightly worse than you (but not a total donk)?