MNF Cincinnati @ Indianapolis

[MyTurn2Raise]

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I think the +3.5 is huge here. I have the true line at Cincy -1.

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WTF?

C'mon. You either have the worst unit system ever created for are kidding yourself.

Kelly says this is a >20% of bankroll play if you capping is correct. From this we can draw one of two conclusions: 1) You have a greater than 30% ROI and are choosing to pass this up for who knows why. 2) Your line is wrong.

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stop being a grump and enjoy the hookers and blow we are about to receive

[rjp]

I deleted the post because the math isn't right. I had a brain fart and assumed you're taking Cinci on the money line. 20% is still too much. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[PITTM]

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Not only have the Colts clenched a playoff spot, but they've clenched the first game at home.
They're only playing for home field in the second game at this point.

I think the +3.5 is huge here. I have the true line at Cincy -1.

This is my largest NFL bet of the year so far.

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if you dont mind me asking, why not bet the moneyline?

rj

[Trencherman]

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If you risk 20% of your bankroll on a 52% true odds play then you're going to go broke 2.55% of the time (an 0-5 streak).

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You're forgetting the fact that if full Kelly betting calls for a 20% bankroll play, the absolute amount wagered will be diminished for the subsequent plays. (The case of simultaneous full Kelly betting is different.) Thus, an 0-5 streak is not sufficient to bust a full-Kelly bettor.

[Dusty Baker]

colts-160 holla

[rjp]

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If you risk 20% of your bankroll on a 52% true odds play then you're going to go broke 2.55% of the time (an 0-5 streak).

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You're forgetting the fact that if full Kelly betting calls for a 20% bankroll play, the absolute amount wagered will be diminished for the subsequent plays. (The case of simultaneous full Kelly betting is different.) Thus, an 0-5 streak is not sufficient to bust a full-Kelly bettor.

[/ QUOTE ]You're right, and correct me if I'm wrong, but the most successful Kelly bettors wouldn't risk 20% on a play.

[BeL0wMe]

Just hit a nice 1k moneyline on the Jets yesterday, only making this one a 2.5 unit play on the Bengals moneyline, hope you guys are right [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] Gamboooooooolllllllll

[RichGangi]

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Just hit a nice moneyline on the Jets yesterday

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Yeah, we both loved that play and it paid off handsomely.... HOLLA

[MicroBob]

I'm on CIN +3.5, -110 and also under 55.5.

I'm also a huge Bengals fan.


WHO DEY!!!!!!!!


Also, I guess I can see CIN has been playing well enough and IND crappy enough for CIN to be close to a 4-point neutral-field favorite for this one (referring to performify's contention that CIN is -1 at IND).
At first, it doesn't seem right because IND has been so good before afterall.

But it's not a total accident that they got destroyed so badly at JAX and now they're finally angry enough to get it turned around and do something about it.
They've been motivated for a few weeks now and STILL look kinda lousy.


Whereas CIN really does look pretty good these days.


So 4-point faves for CIN on neutral-turf isn't TOO crazy imo.
I would rate CIN as 2.5-3 points better than IND meaning that I think this game should be close to a pick-em in IND.
Yes, IND has been looking that awful lately.
And CIN has all kinds of crazy momentum.



Did I happen to mention WHO DEY!!!!!!!

[Ray_bob]

I just want to bring a different perspective as i have picked the colts tonight -3. Everyone keeps talking about the colts run defense and i do understand that it is the worst in the league. it has been all season! the colts are 10 and 3 with the worst run d. this is not why i picked them tonight however im just pointing out there are other aspects to look at. another thing to look at is the fact that indi happens to be undefeated at home this season. so you might want to take a look around at some other stats before you start singing about rudi johnson. and one last thing enough about how the colts have clinched its monday night and Peyton and the colts are coming to play.