AQo in BB. Call down overcards vs 2 tight-typical?

[RICHI8]

*GRUNCH*

MP2 seems like a flushdraw coming along for the ride. Probably something like KJs.

UTG+1 definitely raises with nothing less than AA-JJ, AKo, AKs, and AQs. On the river you are ahead of 3 hands, behind 2, and splitting with 1.

The flop is a little too aggressive. I either lead out here and call a raise, or just call his bet and fold the turn UI. UTG's raising range is way too small to call anymore bets on the turn UI, not to mention your outs could be limited due to the flush draw you put MP2 on.

Lead out on the river and call a raise.

[ajm36]

Even if your numbers on villian are over a small range (say, 100 hands), you can't call let alone 3-bet this hand PF. You simply do not have enough equity here given his range of hands. As far as the flop, I don't get it. What do you intend to do with the turn if you miss? Continuation bet out of position? Your only real choices are c/c or c/f and DEFINITELY c/f the turn.

[MN_Mime]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG+1 definitely raises with nothing less than AA-JJ, AKo, AKs, and AQs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pokerstove has a pretty nifty feature that allows you to enter a percentage and it yields a reasonably approximation of possible hands. Your suggested range for 4% (actually 4.11) is pretty dead on but also includes pocket pairs, TT & 99, which are standard down to 2.8% PFR.

Overall, it's 75% likely that all of my outs are clean, except the Q:diamonds: (see my earlier analysis). The flush draw and my overcard draw are competing against PFR and not each other. Moreover, I have a redraw to the nut flush so I'm still not dead if MP2 completes his hand.

Nice read on MP2. That's exactly what he held and the worst hand I could see him playing here.

[xenion]

grunch

I wouldn't ch/r on the flop. I don't know what kind of monster you could represent with a flop like that when you didnn't raise preflop. Even if MP1 is on flush draw I would guess UTG+1 has a pocket pair of overcards possibly 2 of your 6 outs. It just doesn't seem the right time to be aggressive.

I might even ch/fold on the turn being convinced that UTG has a made hand after his 3 bet on the flop.

I would bet/fold the river.

[MN_Mime]

[ QUOTE ]
You can't call let alone 3-bet this hand PF. You simply do not have enough equity here given his range of hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 55.1092 % 53.45% 01.66% { 99+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 2: 20.5332 % 17.43% 03.10% { 88, AJs, KJs+, AQo, KQo }
Hand 3: 24.3576 % 20.09% 04.27% { AdQs }

I have 20%-25% equity (4:1-3:1) and being BB and closing the action, the pot is laying me 5.5:1.

Even if you skew their ranges against me, a preflop call is still good.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 53.4951 % 51.38% 02.11% { JJ+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 2: 24.8137 % 23.04% 01.78% { JJ-88, AJs, KJs+, AQo, KQo }
Hand 3: 21.6911 % 18.46% 03.23% { AdQs }

If I had more confidence that these two could be playing light, this is a raise but as it stands, it's a pretty big mistake to fold pre-flop.


[ QUOTE ]

As far as the flop, I don't get it. What do you intend to do with the turn if you miss?

[/ QUOTE ]

I had a brain fart. When I put MP2 on a hand, it all fell into place for me that I was in much better shape than I had thought and somehow that translated into a c/r instead of a c/c.

25% of the time
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 67.3121 % 64.53% 02.78% { QQ+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 2: 19.9954 % 18.68% 01.31% { 88, AJs, KJs+, AQo, KQo }
Hand 3: 12.6925 % 09.10% 03.60% { AdQs }

75% of the time
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 59.7369 % 59.74% 00.00% { JJ-99 }
Hand 2: 16.5788 % 16.58% 00.00% { KJs+, KQo }
Hand 3: 23.6843 % 23.68% 00.00% { AdQs }

25% of 12% (3%) + 75% of 24% (18%) = 21%, so I'm still at 4:1 odds and I'm getting 7.5:1 to call the flop. Again, an easy call closing the action. The raise was a mistake.

If I play the flop correctly, the turn is a clear fold at 5.75:1.
If UTG+1 just smooth-calls me on the flop, the turn is a reasonable fold at 7.25:1.
After I butcher the flop, UTG+1 prices me into calling with ~8:1 odds and getting 8.75:1.

As far as "what's my plan for the rest?"... none, and that's the worst part. The rest of the hand plays itself, but once I made the decision that my outs were good and committed myself to the pot, I almost certainly should have value bet the river.


Thanks for the input, everyone!

[Manup]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Fine. I will often 3-bet this, but not against this guy.

Flop: WTF? c/c.

Turn: Fold.

River: Bet. UTG+1 is not going to bet his underpair into two opponents. Neither is MP1.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Xhad]

Regarding the turn: You really can't give your A's and Q's full outs because it is very likely that one or both of your opponents has an A or a Q in his hand. And your odds would have been a lot worse on the turn had you correctly c/c the flop.

On the flop you almost need the BDFD to be able to call.

[RICHI8]

I really cannot credit someone with a 4% PFR to raise UTG+1 with 99 or TT. TT is a long shot and 99 is no way in hell.

[ajm36]

[ QUOTE ]
I have 20%-25% equity (4:1-3:1) and being BB and closing the action, the pot is laying me 5.5:1.


[/ QUOTE ]


my brain fart, thought you were calling two bets

[Sushiglutton]

PF is good given the pot odds. Don't raise the flop. It aaccomplish nothing. It's ok to peel one card. Then c/f turn. Given the action I think a bet is good on the river.