A bluff 400NL

[FeltBelt]

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Yup, thats me. I just found it rather funny reading this:

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Yes, so if he's decided he can beat the repped overpair, he's very likely calling $150 or a push

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That really makes me laugh.

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Meh, laugh all the way to the rail for all I care. If your thinking at the table is as clear as your posting in this thread, it won't be long.

[mason55]

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If he calls this its because he thinks his hand can beat an overpair. you have done a good job of repping QQ here or JJ. You havent done a good job of repping a straight so two pair and a set are still calling.

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lol... two pair is behinf an overpair and a set filled up. this makes no sense.

I think mdma is the only one who realized the river paired the board

[cts]

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You havent done a good job of repping a straight so two pair and a set are still calling.

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No, reread the board. That's why this is the perfect river card for this.

This is a good spot for this play and AI is the way to go of course, not $150 or whatever.

FeltBelt, you're reasoning in this thread is awful and while it's great to debate different lines, being stubborn and condescending to one of the better posters on these forums isn't the way to do it.

[FeltBelt]

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You havent done a good job of repping a straight so two pair and a set are still calling.

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No, reread the board. That's why this is the perfect river card for this.

This is a good spot for this play and AI is the way to go of course, not $150 or whatever.

FeltBelt, you're reasoning in this thread is awful and while it's great to debate different lines, being stubborn and condescending to one of the better posters on these forums isn't the way to do it.

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Tell me exactly which hands THIS PLAYER, not some theoretical player, will call $150 with but would fold for $300. That will tell you how much value the extra $150 or so of the all in has. If the answer is "well *maybe* one or two hands he'd call $150 for but fold to an all in", then you do the math to figure out the EV of the all in vs the 1/2 PSB.

Tight passives like to fold and when they call big-ish river bets (in both pot terms and absolute dollar terms) they usually have the bettor crushed. Hero can give this player a good opportunity to fold without risking his entire stack. So against this player, it's the play to make. But hey, double the risk when half would do if you really want. It's your money.

[MDMA]

You are simply not getting this.

You just simply want him to FOLD in this very hand, and do not care how this decision effects your overall strategy, or how well it goes along with it. You do not care about getting paid when you have a good hand. You do not care about making the same play with a bluff as with the hand you are representing. You do not care about making heroic calls as costly as possible and therefore as difficult as possible.

You are not being realistic, I realized that as soon as I read "Yes, so if he's decided he can beat the repped overpair, he's very likely calling $150 or a push". You are seriously even CONSIDERING him to be considering whether he would call if he could beat AA. That is just ridiculous.

I'll tell you when your "150 vs 300-bet-theorem" is correct. It is in the very unlikely scenario that he's as likely to call 150 as 300, and that everything he calls with is BEATING AA. In other words, if the fact that you having AA is MEANINGLESS, e.g you're AA is as GOOD as a bluff and that you are not ever getting VALUE out of your AA, then you are correct in betting 150 instead of 300. Do you see how [censored] RIDICULOUS that idea is?

You simply care about getting this guy folding in this hand like this is the first and last poker hand in your entire life, without taking consideration to ANYTHING else.

[Surf]

Does anyone else not really like the turn bet? Tight-passive-man just called a 2/3 pot flop bet not closing the action...things are going to get real ugly, real fast for us on the turn all the times he doesn't have another flush draw, no?

Surf

[FeltBelt]

Guy leaves for dinner in 5, and you don't share another table with him for a month. He doesn't remember that your AA and your bluffs look the same. You don't remember you made this play against him. You're out an extra $150 you could have saved by bluffing half the pot and getting him to fold the same range he would have folded anyways.

Ridiculous.

[Kirkrrr]

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Guy leaves for dinner in 5, and you don't share another table with him for a month. He doesn't remember that your AA and your bluffs look the same. You don't remember you made this play against him. You're out an extra $150 you could have saved by bluffing half the pot and getting him to fold the same range he would have folded anyways.

Ridiculous.

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This isn't what it's really about. Obviously if he can beat AA, he's calling anything, so that doesn't matter. But, there's a very good chance he's folding smaller overpairs like TT- or even JJ that he'd insta-call for 150 since he's getting a much better price.

On the other hand, I think I perfer a turn check-raise/free card to betting. You lose the pot if you miss everything on the river, of course, but now it's a much smaller pot you don't feel obligated to get stacked for to win. But, as played, potting the river is a lot better than half-potting because he will fold hands that beat A-high here that he'd never fold for a half-pot bet getting 3:1.

Kirk

[FeltBelt]

I guess I'm just not sure he folds JJ for 300 but not for 150.

[CallYNotRaise06]

i would take MDMA's advice over almost anybodys .


FWIW, MDMA's is spot on. your only worry in this hand is to get him to fold. nothing else matters right now.