pair + FD oop

[Mercman572]

[ QUOTE ]
does he rly have the odds to call here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe he's about 2:1 to make his hand by the turn and that's the price he's getting no?

[ArturiusX]

You guys are overcomplicating this. If he isnt folding, call and see what happens. If hes folding, put some pressure on.

[DJ Sensei]

pretty sure he'll make up the implieds if he does get the flush. And if he gets a Q, he should be paid off nicely. J could be money too, although theres a decent chance that villain has a hand like AJ, or slows down his overpair when the top card comes.

[FGators]

Is it that terrible to lead $15 here, if raised to around $50 then push?

[Big_Jim]

[ QUOTE ]
Is it that terrible to lead $15 here, if raised to around $50 then push?

[/ QUOTE ]
No, and several people have already suggested this.

[younghov17]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
does he rly have the odds to call here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe he's about 2:1 to make his hand by the turn and that's the price he's getting no?

[/ QUOTE ]

thats assuming all his outs are good, 2 pair or another jack might not win it for him, id give him 11 outs on average, with 9 of those being pretty obvious hits if i was villian.

if u lead out on a club turn or check raise me on a club turn and i have aa u arent getting much out of me, same if the a 2nd j hits and i dont have 1. rly a q is the best card cuz u win the most from an aa type hand, but also lose a lot to a set.

[FishSticks]

[ QUOTE ]
Is it that terrible to lead $15 here, if raised to around $50 then push?

[/ QUOTE ]

b3b is definitely better than crai, but I don't think it's all that hot assuming 0 FE. Either way we're putting all the money in on the flop, and although we get the odds we need with the b3b due to the increased pot size, the odds are kind of artificial. I mean, we created these odds with the intention of accomplishing the same goal as a crai - getting it all in the middle on the flop. Regardless of the betting pattern, if we see this flop, feel we have 0 FE, and end up putting it all in it seems marginal to me. With some measure of FE against a not nit, I like the b3b a lot, incidentally. Against the villain described I still think a call is better.

[Rick305]

This all depends on if he raises, and then C/bets with AK-AQ and maybe a pair of tens.

[tannenj]

i lead/donkbet this flop 99% of the time.

[Dan Bitel]

I don't get the advice here.

1) Why do we have no FE? We've been told villain is a rock/nit and yet we're saying he calls off his entire stack 100% of the time with one pair. WTF?

2) Is a b/3b reallly better than a C/R AI? By this, I mean, does it actually have more FE? Lets say we lead for $20. a) does he always raise? I'm not 100% sure he does. b) he'll raise to like 60-70 odd and be getting great odds on calling our push. At least with the C/R, while our line looks a bit fishy, he's getting horrible odds to call when he know best case he's flipping vs a combo draw

3) Like younghov says, do we really have odds to call? I mean, our implied odds are shot really. A jack or a club hits and we get little. A queen hits and we get stacked by QQ/JJ and AJ isn't putting any more money in. So is the flop call all that +EV?