I Keep Dreaming of This WSOP Hand...

[deankeaton7]

my first response is the same, keep the pot smaller. 700 is the max to raise here, although I would be reraising to 600 total...

[locutus2002]

First hand is 25/25 but let's say it's first hand at 25/50 and you have no read.

With 200XBB hero should be very concerned about making the 2nd best hand. I'd try and keep the pot small.

PF raise of 500-600. I'd also consider not raising at all and playing it strong ATF (probably my preference here).

If I raised PF then ATF I'd probably check behind. The flop is very coordinated for a speculative hand. The flop clearly didn't hit hero, and villain should expect to be able to move hero off many hands with a c/r. Many drawing hands want to assert there FE at the flop.

It looks a little w/t. Hero is giving equity to avoid going broke in the hand with so many chips behind. Unless a big card comes off villain will want to get payed if he flopped big and lay in the weeds - usually.

[adanthar]

locutus,

this + not raising PF in EP ever = you will very quickly be in the comforts of the red zone.

[TomHimself]

there is no 25/25 level in ME.

fwiw with a field this big i go broke. you need to accumulate and i think you are ahead of the average party qualifiers range. just because its a 10k event i dont think you should play weak but i guess if you want to experience the WSOP and not win it then you can fold.

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
Related to the last post, what you are really asking is "What is the ratio of tricky and/or reasonable TAGs to total idiots at this year's WSOP?"

Answer: "Enough for me to go broke here and feel good about it."

[/ QUOTE ]

Adanthar,

I dunno.

Let's just say his range preflop for calling our 3bet is AK, 22-AA, and some random suited connectors/two broadways. Cool.

After his flop C/R, we can almost certainly eliminate any AK/broadway type hands from his range. There will be a few suited connectors that hit very strong that are in his range. There will also be sets (obviously), and overpairs -- but I don't think all overpairs. I think 99-TT either call or fold most of the time, even by "the everydonk."

This is also an online qualifier who opted to wear a t-shirt to pay for his hotel, which means he is going to be a little more weak-tight than the average dude that buys in for $10k. Which I think strengthens the idea that he isn't doing this with 99/TT.

So essentially what we're hoping is that villian has exactly JJ-QQ, or some sort of suited connector that we'd be even money with. As opposed to (the much more likely in my opinion) set/AA.

[adanthar]

I dunno, I put his range at like...any draw, top pair, A5, A3, he misread his hand, he thinks QQ is the nuts, he thinks he can take you off AA because this is the first hand and besides QQ is the nuts...

I feel like underestimating the intelligence of a Party donk is not as likely as overestimating it. It's not like I'm the Superchamp of Poker, I just win money because other people suck at it.

[TomHimself]

mlagoo. he can have broadway clubs too. i dont think ur point about him being weak tight is necesarilly true either

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
I dunno, I put his range at like...any draw, top pair, A5, A3, he misread his hand, he thinks QQ is the nuts, he thinks he can take you off AA because this is the first hand and besides QQ is the nuts...

[/ QUOTE ]

meh, I just really disagree. i just don't think the random online qualifier (ESPECIALLY one that elects to wear the t-shirt) is going to be "making moves" for half of his chips on the first hand of the tourney. i agree that eventually they'll get impatient/bored and A5/middle pair becomes the nuts, but not on the first hand.

[locutus2002]

You'd be surprised how many chips 200XBB is in this structure.

I didn't know that about level 1 in the WSOP (25/50).

The red zone for many players is 6 hours away. I intend to still be playing at that point. I play this structure of tournament (minus the field size) several nights a week, KK just doesn't play well in level 1, and big pairs only play well BTF, which isn't very important in this type of poker. Personally I think smooth calling BTF and having the option of representing 67 or 2clubs is much better than raising when 1/2 of your holding are likely to be large pairs. The value of keeping your range wide is worth more than the chips - to me.

Anyone who'd bet and dump on the flop isn't that clever either.

So you guys want the results??? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Glad there is some dissent in this discussion. As I told woodguy earlier today (after the ruler up the ass comment), without dissent, these boards pretty much suck.