89s and I'm ascared.

[Will.]

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I would c/r river. Villain's line is an overpair a lot.

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Villain seems tight preflop but wouldn`t he 3-bet TT+?

[/ QUOTE ]my guess would be that he would 3-bet 77+

[Will.]

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Over how many hands are these stats?
I agree that villain`s line looks scary although he seems aggro enough postflop to make the river a b/c.

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[Will.]

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Whoever said bet / call: that's usually the best way to win the least and lose the most.

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Not in this specific situation. In this spot, checking and calling is the line that will win the least and lose the most. I think youre underestimating how often a typical player is raising with a weak holding on the turn, and if we check the river he'll gladly check it down all those times he's beat, but if he does have a better hand he'll certainly bet. This is why I think bet/call is the best line in this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]What is he raising on the river that we beat though? I'm not saying that this line is wrong I just hate the idea of calling a raise, and I think he will bet anything that he would have called a donk with.
edit: well not ANYTHING, but almost anything and he could also bet with a hand that he would fold to a bet with.

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If your read is correct then bet/calling the river is clearly a mistake, but I dont feel the same way as you do about this opponents betting range. I dont believe the villain will bet anything he will call a donk with. For example, if we check this river, I dont see him betting some lower pair, but if this is the case, then check/calling is clearly better then bet/calling, but I suspect you are overestimating his betting range when you check this river.

[/ QUOTE ]I see what you mean and it's pretty close either way, but again, my main problem with bet/calling is the idea of having to call a raise.

[synbad13]

This seems like a flop that I would look to C/R - assuming that the PFR will bet... they normally do.

I agree that the turn is not something to get too worke up over - I could see him playing like this with a big pair. Checking through the flop to try and lure some more money out on the bigger streets. Most people on the forums will agree that this is a poor play, we it certainly does happen.

I like betting out on the river and calling his raise.
He could still be raising a big PP.

His stats make me think he has some serious flaws in his game - and his PFR is not too high.