$60 - BVB - If I wanted to fold all day I'd work in a doily factory - Page 3

pineapple888 · #21 06-03-2006, 01:54 PM

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jesus, given your read, i still push very quickly. i mean, put him on a range that makes this push -EV and how often does he hold one of those hands? my god you have QTo heads up. do you realize how good your hand is?

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It's 57.291% against a random hand. It's 48.265% against the top 50% of hands. It's 39.719% against the top 25% of hands.

I'm sorry, but I'm not having an orgasm over those numbers.

Given that this player is bad postflop I want at least a 1.0% edge in SNGPT to push this rather than seeing a flop. I get a range of 44+, A7s+, A9o+, KJs+ as equal to 1.0%. Something tells me he's calling with more than that, and if not, any gain I'm getting by pushing is tiny .

curtains · #22 06-03-2006, 01:58 PM

pineapple your quick math is really faulty because almost all those hands you have him calling the allin with, are hands that he would have often raised with preflop.

This is an unbelievable no brainer slam dunk push to me. Well ok I'm exagerating a bit, there are really really terrible players who I might occasionally just check here, but thats definitely a very rare exception. In any case I see nothing in suzzers very short read to convince myself otherwise. Moving allin is so so standard in this spot that I refuse to advise him against it based on some nebulous read that's almost surely irrelevent

TravestyFund · #23 06-03-2006, 01:58 PM

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[ QUOTE ]
jesus, given your read, i still push very quickly. i mean, put him on a range that makes this push -EV and how often does he hold one of those hands? my god you have QTo heads up. do you realize how good your hand is?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's 57.291% against a random hand. It's 48.265% against the top 50% of hands. It's 39.719% against the top 25% of hands.

I'm sorry, but I'm not having an orgasm over those numbers.

Given that this player is bad postflop I want at least a 1.0% edge in SNGPT to push this rather than seeing a flop. I get a range of 44+, A7s+, A9o+, KJs+ as equal to 1.0%. Something tells me he's calling with more than that, and if not, any gain I'm getting by pushing is tiny .

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FE

elanto · #24 06-03-2006, 02:17 PM

I would check and look to de stack him if I hit the flop strongly

pineapple888 · #25 06-03-2006, 02:23 PM

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pineapple your quick math is really faulty because almost all those hands you have him calling the allin with, are hands that he would have often raised with preflop.

This is an unbelievable no brainer slam dunk push to me. Well ok I'm exagerating a bit, there are really really terrible players who I might occasionally just check here, but thats definitely a very rare exception. In any case I see nothing in suzzers very short read to convince myself otherwise. Moving allin is so so standard in this spot that I refuse to advise him against it based on some nebulous read that's almost surely irrelevent

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1.) Of course the SNGPT's an approximation but Villain's loose-weak and he will be completing/calling a push with many of those hands and he will likely be calling with many hands outside that range, so yes it is an approximation I ran, but I think it's pretty darn close.

2.) This is not a push-or-fold decision, it's a push-or-check decision. There is significant +EV post-flop here. I know nobody likes to play post-flop but there you have it.

3.) I used to be much more aggressive in these BvB situations but finally decided it simply wasn't worth it against the donks I play against at the 109s (which are probably close to the 60s in skill level), so I understand the theory, but I just haven't found that it's worth it in practice.

Guthrie · #26 06-03-2006, 03:09 PM

If I ever get my stats analysis program finished I'm sure it will show that when I push in this situation, the SB folds about 95% of the time. I quit worrying about the other 5%.

This is the only play that works consistently for me.

schwza · #27 06-03-2006, 03:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
pineapple your quick math is really faulty because almost all those hands you have him calling the allin with, are hands that he would have often raised with preflop.

This is an unbelievable no brainer slam dunk push to me. Well ok I'm exagerating a bit, there are really really terrible players who I might occasionally just check here, but thats definitely a very rare exception. In any case I see nothing in suzzers very short read to convince myself otherwise. Moving allin is so so standard in this spot that I refuse to advise him against it based on some nebulous read that's almost surely irrelevent

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it's the old curtains "i'm ignoring your read" play. you're basically never happy when you're called unless it's a smaller Qx or Tx. even if he calls with J9, i think you'd prefer to have just checked and played a flop (haven't done any math on that). and you're going to get called a lot of times, by crap like KJs and K3o. also, villain is passive, so he might show up with AQ or something here. i think checking is best given the read. without it, i'd push.

edit: i misremembered "massive" as "passive." some i'm not sure if passive was supposed to be part of the read, but most calling stations are passive, otherwise tehy'd be lags.

suzzer99 · #28 06-03-2006, 04:35 PM

I think his #s were like 40/3.6 or something. My standard is to push in spots like this, as most villains will fold. But this dude didn't think for very long and called with KJs. I think he just wanted to see a flop, and was willing to pay for it if he had to.

What I'm wondering is if this is standard from passive calling stations and maybe I should alter my standard push, to a call-value-bet approach, as many seem to advocate. I think I'll try that for a while and see how it goes.

Newt_Buggs · #29 06-03-2006, 05:13 PM

I push in these situations a lot too, but agains passive donks I have no problem with checking. The SB has already proved that he is most likely an idiot for completing here. Given that he has already shown that he sucks, why should I then give him credit for laying down a hand like K8o when I push?

Having said that though I will admit that I usually push, especially given that my hand is QTo which is significantly stronger than a trash hand.

curtains · #30 06-03-2006, 07:21 PM

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I push in these situations a lot too, but agains passive donks I have no problem with checking. The SB has already proved that he is most likely an idiot for completing here. Given that he has already shown that he sucks, why should I then give him credit for laying down a hand like K8o when I push?

Having said that though I will admit that I usually push, especially given that my hand is QTo which is significantly stronger than a trash hand.

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Well yes Im pushing because I have QTo. Listen this time he had KJs (which you will beat a decent amount) but more often they may have something liek K7o or worse which the will almost ALWAYS fold. Also even loose passive guys are likely to raise hands like 88/AJo here..I mean he does raise 4% of the time according to your stats, which I'm sure arent over a HUGE sample size.